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Nb 10.0 trend trading system

  • #761
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:30am Dec 2, 2011 10:30am
Quoting Kelisa
I ve got killed before on NFP times. That was totally inexperienced newbie, got whip lashed up and down. Nerve wrecking bone chilling experience.

Watch out for H4 SR levels: If NFP is good news, EU will shoot north to wipe out the SL then head back actual path, south.

Happy pipping
Managed to trip my sell limit.
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  • #762
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:44am Dec 2, 2011 10:44am
Kelisa

Did you sell at 1.3397?

Quoting Kelisa
Managed to trip my sell limit.
  • #763
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:50am Dec 2, 2011 10:50am
Quoting cmeade2
Kelisa

Did you sell at 1.3397?
No, I set sell limit at 1.35323. Just above the H4 R line. This trade does not follow NB 10.1 because I was expecting NFP news to be positive, which then will cause EU to spike up, then go down south.
  • #764
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:54am Dec 2, 2011 10:54am
That 2 yellow lines was the range I expected NFP to move.
  • #765
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:54am Dec 2, 2011 10:54am
I'm confused then. Did you make a trade? What is the 1.3397 level on your chart?
Quoting Kelisa
No, I set sell limit at 1.35323. Just above the H4 R line. This trade does not follow NB 10.1 because I was expecting NFP news to be positive, which then will cause EU to spike up, then go down south.
  • #766
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:57am Dec 2, 2011 10:57am
Thats the lower Yellow line i drawn prior to the NFP news. The yellow line is not a trade. Its just set for my visual.

The trade is set at 1.35323, Sell Limit. And was triggered during the NFP spike.
  • #767
  • Dec 2, 2011 11:00am Dec 2, 2011 11:00am
It's funny because I wasn't focused on the spike, but clearly that turned out to be very profitable for you. Congratulations!

Quoting Kelisa
Thats the lower Yellow line i drawn prior to the NFP news. The yellow line is not a trade. Its just set for my visual.

The trade is set at 1.35323, Sell Limit. And was triggered during the NFP spike.
  • #768
  • Dec 2, 2011 11:01am Dec 2, 2011 11:01am
Thanks. Also keep an eye for GpbJpy H4. I see good set up emerging.
  • #769
  • Dec 2, 2011 11:06am Dec 2, 2011 11:06am
Will do.

I have one other question. Your trade this morning was profitable because the EU spiked and then reversed after the news. But what if the employment numbers were terrible for the US and the EU took off upwards in a longer term trend (i.e., no immediate reversal). This happened a couple of months ago. Would you have still made the trade under that circumstance?

Quoting Kelisa
Thanks. Also keep an eye for GpbJpy H4. I see good set up emerging.
  • #770
  • Dec 2, 2011 11:14am Dec 2, 2011 11:14am
Yeaah..that would be a catastrophe. Probably close the loss asap. Or, if news was bad, PA would go south first, then only go up. Hopefully you have enuf time to cancel the sell limit.
  • #771
  • Dec 2, 2011 11:17am Dec 2, 2011 11:17am
Anyway, this kind of trade is too dangerous, especially after any news. I rarely do it. Its better to stick to NB10.1 consistently, and you will reap green pips along the way. News trading can just wipe your account dry.
  • #772
  • Dec 2, 2011 11:19am Dec 2, 2011 11:19am
With not so good news for Europe, EU might continue its course to 1.31 too.
  • #773
  • Dec 3, 2011 6:42am Dec 3, 2011 6:42am
Bob

I'm a huge fan of price action and wicks against lines of support and resistance. Along these lines, I was looking at the 10.1 charts on a H1 timescale and made the following observation. Basically if you have a green candle with a wick finding support on a 4H or daily level, the price will go up from there. Alternatively, if you have a black candle with a wick finding resistance on one of these levels, the price will go down from there. I have attached an example of an H1 USD/CHF that illustrates this principle nicely.

I'd be interested in your views.
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  • #774
  • Dec 3, 2011 6:40pm Dec 3, 2011 6:40pm
Quoting cmeade2
Bob

I'm a huge fan of price action and wicks against lines of support and resistance. Along these lines, I was looking at the 10.1 charts on a H1 timescale and made the following observation. Basically if you have a green candle with a wick finding support on a 4H or daily level, the price will go up from there. Alternatively, if you have a black candle with a wick finding resistance on one of these levels, the price will go down from there. I have attached an example of an H1 USD/CHF that illustrates this principle nicely.

I'd be interested...
Good show, If you show more trades during the week live I am sure it will help a lot of traders.
  • #775
  • Dec 4, 2011 7:34am Dec 4, 2011 7:34am
Bob

As I run your charts through the simulator, I see a potential problem based on how the H4 levels are drawn. Basically, it seems the levels are established and then the lines are drawn back in time. And so, if you scroll back in time on a chart, the price action that appears on the H4 levels may never have occurred because the levels of support and resistance were not defined when the bar occurred. This seems to be especially true for the first bar for a new H4 level. The fact is that this support/resistance level was probably drawn 4-8 hours after the bar was finished.

Does this make sense to you.


Quoting nanningbob
Good show, If you show more trades during the week live I am sure it will help a lot of traders.
  • #776
  • Dec 4, 2011 8:05am Dec 4, 2011 8:05am
Quoting cmeade2
Bob

As I run your charts through the simulator, I see a potential problem based on how the H4 levels are drawn. Basically, it seems the levels are established and then the lines are drawn back in time. And so, if you scroll back in time on a chart, the price action that appears on the H4 levels may never have occurred because the levels of support and resistance were not defined when the bar occurred. This seems to be especially true for the first bar for a new H4 level. The fact is that this support/resistance level was probably drawn 4-8 hours...
Yes, you cant have a line until there is some history so they are delayed in posting. Again I dont use 4H very much but sometimes I will if the daily lines are far away. I tell you what I have experimented with on the 4H and seems to be working is if I am in a DT and price is retracing I put a sell just below the low of the previous candle. That way when price is going back into the trend I am picking it back up quickly. I dont know if this is a good strategy yet because the EUR is a safe bet to go south and is working very well. The Euro keeps retracing but doing sells off of them is a pretty sure bet right now. It is why I did so well this last week on the eur /nzd and gbp/nzd and eur/cad. I just had all of the pending sells build up and then bang bang bang. So the fundamentals are making that kind of strategy look great. How it would do in a more normal market is hard to say right now but with Euro bears lurking under every rock it is an easy trade to do.

Understanding how an indicator works helps you in using them. A candle high has to have the next candle high be lower for a line to be drawn. This makes the line 4-8 hours away. That problem is solved some by Squalou's indicator which uses old S/R lines to base our trades on. They already exist so we use them. There is no solving the problem because S/R lines are based on old history. There is no way to know if the candle forming now will be a new S/R level until a couple of more candles are formed. That is why I use Daily S/R for most of my decisions. They are much firmer and more predictable than the 4H ones. Weekly ones are nice too but it maybe weeks before you find one that gets broken.
  • #777
  • Dec 4, 2011 8:16am Dec 4, 2011 8:16am
I have added manually drawn daily/weekly and monthly SR levels (from the line chart) to my charts, so the strongest levels are always visible. It only takes few minute to do for each chart and the levels are enduring, especially the longer TF ones.

If you are a H4 trader I would recommend doing the above and then dropping to the H4 chart, zoom right out and place your SR lines in manually. I look for levels where price has reacted on both sides of the lines ie S and R as these are the best 'pivot' points really. You will usually find that H4 will react at the same D/W/M levels that you have already set, but with a few additions. Once a monthly or weekly level breaks then price will usually meander all the way to the next level. Knowing this may help you to stay with the trades longer.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #778
  • Dec 4, 2011 8:17am Dec 4, 2011 8:17am
Bob

Right, I am seeing that the daily levels are more useful. As I discussed previously, it is useful to look at the PA as the pair negotiates the particular level. Sometimes, it is useful to us shorter timeframes (e.g., 15 min) to see whether it will break through or bounce off.

I will look at your ideas for the 4H in the simulator.

Quoting nanningbob
Yes, you cant have a line until there is some history so they are delayed in posting. Again I dont use 4H very much but sometimes I will if the daily lines are far away. I tell you what I have experimented with on the 4H and seems to be working is if I am in a DT and price is retracing I put a sell just below the low of the previous candle. That way when price is going back into the trend I am picking it back up quickly. I dont know if this is a good strategy yet because the EUR is a safe bet to go south and is working very well. The Euro keeps...
  • #779
  • Dec 4, 2011 8:25am Dec 4, 2011 8:25am
Does the SR indicator allow for drawing at different TFs? I mean if we could produce one that fits each TF then that would be diamond - personally I would only want H4 and Weekly added to the daily. As Bob says the Daily is the most important chart IMHO. This is where the larger non-intraday guys make their decisions along with with weekly charts for trend trading. That intra day noise trading is too stressful and unprofitable for me!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #780
  • Dec 4, 2011 8:29am Dec 4, 2011 8:29am
Oops, my bad - just checked the indy using MetaEditor - you can select the H4 levels instead as well as H1 and M15. That way you can turn on whatever TF you are trading. You could have daily and H4 I guess? So, I added 2 H4 levels and reduced the daily to 1. That way you have the nearest 2 (or however many you want) H4 levels and the nearest daily level - magic!!

Now, is there anyone with better coding ability to me that could add a Weekly Level? I tend to prefer 'set and forget' trading out on the higher TFs. I would prefer to use H4, Daily and Weekly.
Trade less and become more profitable!
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