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  • #569,521
  • Dec 3, 2011 8:58am Dec 3, 2011 8:58am
Quoting Incrediblle
I will utilize my weekend to plan how to profit next week.
By your own admission, I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you.

It ain't gonna happen this weekend, or any other weekend for that matter kiddo.

Quoting Incrediblle
....even i am trading from last three years with no sucess....
  • #569,522
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:09am Dec 3, 2011 9:09am
Cloggie, while you are here, I wanted to ask you about you opinion on "dont tell your strategy to noone".

Dont you think, that if there were more people using your strategy, it would be more succesfull? I mean, like a selffulfilling technical indicators, like fibo, or 200 EMA. If noone used them, they wouldnt work.

So in fact making your strategy public could make it stronger.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #569,523
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:14am Dec 3, 2011 9:14am
Quoting Incrediblle
thats the difference between a loser and a winner.
What that leaderboard doesnt say is that there are only 11 traders on it...
  • #569,524
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:18am Dec 3, 2011 9:18am
You see, for a market maker, it is obviously bad to tell his secret, but for an ordinary trader, it can bring good if some big bank starts to use his system. I work for HFT futures trader and those guys are trying to find out weaknessess of other HFT traders in order to rob their cash. It is kinda insane, I aint that great in mathematics, I dont exactly get what are they doing. We are behind ten firewalls and model structure is the top secret of the company. So I understand your point. But nevertheless, I think it can bring only good to ordinary trader.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #569,525
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:28am Dec 3, 2011 9:28am
Quoting cloggie
you lost a 34 pip trade and 98.5% of your account balance in the process...
wtf? that is fakkin incredible....
  • #569,526
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:28am Dec 3, 2011 9:28am
Can someone help me out with hft stuff?

My understanding to this day is that it's basically glorified scalping ea's. Am I missing something hugely fundamental or is that basically it?
  • #569,527
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:40am Dec 3, 2011 9:40am
Nope, I cant help ya, I would got fired. I highly suspect my boss is lurking somewhere here too . But lets just say, you have 10 insane braniancs with 170 IQ and super duper mathematical skills and they will somehow manage to write such a program which can actually think instead of the trader and sends orders to stock exchange within microseconds.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #569,528
  • Edited 9:43am Dec 3, 2011 9:43am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Nope, I cant help ya, I would got fired. I highly suspect my boss is lurking somewhere here too . But lets just say, you have 10 insane braniancs with 170 IQ and super duper mathematical skills and they will somehow manage to write such a program which can actually think instead of the trader and sends orders to stock exchange within microseconds.

T
Ok... I just wanted to make sure my understanding wasn't too far off base. Thanks for the response.
  • #569,529
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:50am Dec 3, 2011 9:50am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Cloggie, while you are here, I wanted to ask you about you opinion on "dont tell your strategy to noone".

Dont you think, that if there were more people using your strategy, it would be more succesfull? I mean, like a selffulfilling technical indicators, like fibo, or 200 EMA. If noone used them, they wouldnt work.

So in fact making your strategy public could make it stronger.

T
IF you give your strategy, you lose control. If you share it with one person, you dillute your edge slightly, as you cannot prevent further disclosure, your edge will eventually dwindle down to nothing.

As an aside, why would any trader give up something that he has worked hard and long for?

Most here roughly look at the same things, see the charts posted here the last few days, plenty here had very similar entries. However disclosing your exact strategy will only mean it will eventually be oversaturated with too much money chasing the same entries with plenty frontrunning it slightly and then the edge is gone.
  • #569,530
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:03am Dec 3, 2011 10:03am
Quoting cloggie
...However disclosing your exact strategy will only mean it will eventually be oversaturated with too much money chasing the same entries with plenty frontrunning it slightly and then the edge is gone.
Ok, so for example, if I were Fibonacci, you think that when I disclose my strategy of 61,8% beeing brilliant percentage for reversal, we wont reach that exact number, because there can eventually be too much money chasing the target?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #569,531
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:07am Dec 3, 2011 10:07am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, so for example, if I were Fibonacci, you think that when I disclose my strategy of 61,8% beeing brilliant percentage for reversal, we wont reach that exact number, because there can eventually be too much money chasing the target?

T

Fibo's is a great example, if you look how they responded only 10-15 years ago, and how they do now, you can clearly see how especially the HFT's are often reversing right before the tests right now. I have taken to drawing the fibos on with thicker and thicker lines in the last 10 years.

The same is true with a lot of other techie skills, that worked to the pip only 5 years back and are now often missed by quite a few.

I have had to adapt how I trade in the last few years, especially as the machines are taking a bigger and bigger cut out of the action each and every year, we are up to about 45-50% right now and I foresee the FX market to be run by machines for 80% of the volume by the end of this decade, that means that there is more liquidity available, it also means that they can react quicker and faster to price action then any trader can.

I like trading alongside the machines, we get a heck of a lot less spikes and the outliers are dampened down by quite a bit to what it was only a few years back.
  • #569,532
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:10am Dec 3, 2011 10:10am
Quoting cloggie
IF you give your strategy, you lose control. If you share it with one person, you dillute your edge slightly, as you cannot prevent further disclosure, your edge will eventually dwindle down to nothing.

As an aside, why would any trader give up something that he has worked hard and long for?

Most here roughly look at the same things, see the charts posted here the last few days, plenty here had very similar entries. However disclosing your exact strategy will only mean it will eventually be oversaturated with too much money chasing the same...
Valid points.

I think the argument for the other side goes like this:

1. Certain techniques such as reversals require momentum to succeed. So the more people using the same strategy to pile into a trade in your direction, the more likely it is to succeed.
2. Nothing is new under the sun. Putting things together in a way that makes money is the challenge... not inventing something new. I don't have anything which you can't get out of a book. Which means any edge I have is already diluted.
3. I am strictly small fry... it would take a lot of people following me to eat away my edge... and I see the chance of that as vanishingly small.
4. Putting your system out in public makes it available to peer review. Other people typically can spot its flaws easier than you can.
5. Sharing creates a learning synergy. You show, they tell, you both learn something valuable.
6. Articulating and justifying a strategy forces you to think about it clearly. So it will probably make it better and probably wont make it worse.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #569,533
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:14am Dec 3, 2011 10:14am
Quoting AaronWard
Valid points.

I think the argument for the other side goes like this:

1. Certain techniques such as reversals require momentum to succeed. So the more people using the same strategy to pile into a trade in your direction, the more likely it is to succeed.
2. Nothing is new under the sun. Putting things together in a way that makes money is the challenge... not inventing something new. I don't have anything which you can't get out of a book. Which means any edge I have is already diluted.
3. I am strictly small fry... it would take a...

If you had a strategy that worked, you wouldn't need to share it, you don't need peer review, you don't need to have someone look at it with fresh eyes.

If you have a strategy that works, you got 2 choices, you either trade it, or you walk into DB/UBS and get them to see 10-20Mn and trade it for them.

The last thing you are going to do is publish it on some anonymous internet forum and share it with mostly kids you have never met and never will.

The last thing I am interested in is creating a learning synergy, I am in it for the money. The more people you share it with, the more will look at trading the same setups, who the heck is going to take the other side then? I need more and more traders each and every year that can't see what I am seeing to take money out of the markets, that is becoming harder and harder each and every year by both the size one trades and by the added liquidity/ dampening by the HFT's

Trading is not about collectively doing the same thing, there wouldn't be a market then.


Some strategies/systems posted here, none of them have any trackrecord still receive thousands of posts form noobies and followers, imagine posting something that has a 20 year track record, within no time you'd have 20,000 muppets trading it and within a week, it would be useless.

IF sharing a strategy was so beneficial, the big boys wouldn't spend tens of millions protecting their IP, and you would see hundreds of peer reviewed papers by academia published each and every month covering each and every strategy and method in minutiae.

Show me a single strategy published anywhere in the world that has a 5-10 year proven trackrecord.
  • #569,534
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:16am Dec 3, 2011 10:16am
Quoting cloggie
Fibo's is a great example, if you look how they responded only 10-15 years ago, and how they do now, you can clearly see how especially the HFT's are often reversing right before the tests right now. I have taken to drawing the fibos on with thicker and thicker lines in the last 10 years.

The same is true with a lot of other techie skills, that worked to the pip only 5 years back and are now often missed by quite a few.

I have had to adapt how I trade in the last few years, especially as the machines are taking a bigger and bigger cut out of the...
Im guessing this kinda answers my pm to u?

And i wouldnt worry too much...even if u post ur system...it's incredibly hard to trade it/follow in real life. Its not like its a moving average crossover. This sh!t is hard. Not only u have to pay attention to lots of stuff, but u have to be very fast as well.
  • #569,535
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:23am Dec 3, 2011 10:23am
Quoting cloggie
If you had a strategy that worked, you wouldn't need to share it, you don't need peer review, you don't need to have someone look at it with fresh eyes.

If you have a strategy that works, you got 2 choices, you either trade it, or you walk into DB/UBS and get them to see 10-20Mn and trade it for them.

The last thing you are going to do is publish it on some anonymous internet forum and share it with mostly kids you have never met and never will.

The last thing I am interested in is creating a learning synergy, I am in it for the money. The more...
That you are not interested is clear. That it would make a shadow of difference if you published (or didn't) on an internet forum with or without kids is not.

I disagree that trading is not about collectively doing the same thing. Everytime you pile into a trend or a counter trend trade it is the fact that 51% (or whatever) is making the same decision as you are that makes you money. If not, the market will move against you and you will lose money.

BTW I didn't say that publishing your strategy is always a good idea. But if you are trading with less than 100,000,000 USD publishing it is pretty irrelevant. What the big boys are protecting is their tactical decisions and the IP for their computer programs. Their strategies... probably not so much and the key ideas underlying their ideas...highly unlikely.

As for literature examining trades and trading... we are drowning in it.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #569,536
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:23am Dec 3, 2011 10:23am
Quoting cloggie
Fibo's is a great example,...
Ok, good point. Well, I will continue posting my levels, since I am starting as a trader and I need someone to tear my analysis apart so I can evolve. Unfortunately, noone does that, as noone usually understands what I am trying to say. Furthermore, my analysis is kinda insane and I am simply unable to post it all so I only reveal like 10%. I could write a book, like your favourite Williams. Well, maybe it is useless, but it may help to someone a bit without puting me in danger, and maybe it will help to me.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #569,537
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:24am Dec 3, 2011 10:24am
Quoting AaronWard
That you are not interested in clear. That it would make a shadow of difference if you published (or didn't) on an internet forum with or without kids is not.

I disagree that trading is not about collectively doing the same thing. Everytime you pile into a trend or a counter trend trade it is the fact that 51% (or whatever) is making the same decision as you are. If not, the market will move against you and you will lose money.

OK, show me a single strategy published anywhere in the world with at least a 5 year trackrecord that is freely shared.

You are not going to find it. It is worth millions.


Go ahead, find us one. Matter of fact if you have one somewhere, I would happily pay 100k USD for it.
  • #569,538
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:32am Dec 3, 2011 10:32am
Quoting mohsenfaghih
H4 analyze
hello,

i think euro now goes up about 200 points then leave down to 1.3000

Gold rise Up, then end off year down and euro too
  • #569,539
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:38am Dec 3, 2011 10:38am
One of my good mates went back to the dark side and got seeded with 30Mn+, he is now trading that while the frim is marketing that to open with 500Mn-1Bn next summer.

That is the kind of numbers a good strategy can attract in the City. You will not see any of them sharing it freely on FF.

Like I said in the post above, if you have one, I will happily pay 100k for it, I can turn that over in no time for a multiple of that.
  • #569,540
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:40am Dec 3, 2011 10:40am
Quoting cloggie
OK, show me a single strategy published anywhere in the world with at least a 5 year trackrecord that is freely shared.

You are not going to find it. It is worth millions.


Go ahead, find us one. Matter of fact if you have one somewhere, I would happily pay 100k USD for it.
Piling into a pullback of a strong trend with decent money management.

Of course we could quibble about the level of detail, and exact entries and exits.... but I say that it tactics and not strategy.

Another would be Warren Buffets value investing... not for me, but still he has an excellent track record.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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