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  • #801
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:37am Nov 30, 2011 8:37am
This is what comes with knowledge of fundamentals and lots of market experience.

Knowledge of fundamentals are not necessary but it is useful for identifying some no-brainer trades. As with the ECHF long on Friday - can you forecast events like this with high certainty - nope (and if anyone tells you they can then they are talking rubbish and blatantly have an 'agenda'), but what you can do is quickly process the event and 'know' whether this represents a high probability trade.
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  • #802
  • Dec 2, 2011 3:05pm Dec 2, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I decided to wait for price to show me which direction it was most likely to head - I got the confirmation in the end (after a BE first attempt) and have scaled out 70% of the trade now.
I forgot to include the 1st chart below to show why I took the trade. I passed on the initial TT (see previous posts) but decided to enter a short after it held as resistance and price had that rounded top feel (with divergence and some PA bars to show the way).

I'm still in the trade with a partial position and will likely move my SL down to protect my profit at the start of next week (given the current location of price).
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  • #803
  • Dec 2, 2011 4:09pm Dec 2, 2011 4:09pm
Some post NFP trades. These are amongst my favourite trade setups - combining fundamentals / news with technical locations.

Each of these pairs are at resistance levels, by themselves we don't have enough information to conclude which direction price is likely to head next...but look at them as one and combine it with USDx, EURx charts and the clear sentiment from NFP and you have a high probability set of trades.


Below is an extract from today's Trading Room discussion:

[2:39:51 PM] TheTradersGuild: The way I look at trading is that it's all about digesting information and forumlating an opinion as to whether it presents a trading opportuntity - be it using technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Most people use one or the other, but I never really get why, it's a pretty old fashioned way to look at things. Learning basic fundamentals is no more difficult than learning technical analysis methods yet people rarely combine both.

Most traders I come across are very narrow minded and by that I mean they have a narrow approach to their trading and don't look to expand their mind, normally this is because they have found what works for them. Although I do agree with this to an extent, I think the business of trading is about constantly improving yourself and searching for new tools to assist in providing further information that could help find high probability trading opportunities and make logical trading decisions.

Thus IMO, mixing some basic fundamentals with an array of technical analysis methods can only be a good thing and these trades today are an example of this. Individually for me there is no reason to take a trade, but bring them together and you have a high probability trading opportunity.
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  • #804
  • Dec 2, 2011 4:35pm Dec 2, 2011 4:35pm
Another example of combining fundamentals / sentiment and technicals from this week...

ECHF - technically price is within a consolidation box on the daily TF. The failed breakout with a bullish close back within the box is a sign that this area will hold for the time being and price would head higher. Would I take this by itself - no, for me this is not one of my technical setups that I would take by itself - I need more confirmatory information.

Fundamentally the SNB introduced the 1.2 peg on 6th September, since then they have regularly stated their desire for the CHF to weaken much further and that they would do anything in their power to achieve this goal. They have shown they have the tools by the introduction of the 1.2 peg and they did this at a time when the strength of the CHF was have a serious negative affect on the countries exporters. This move of course changed the dynamics of this pair as it is no longer a safe haven currency and the speculators are no longer heavily long like they used to be. Thus it makes sense to have a short sentiment towards the CHF over the medium term.

Adding to this is the Swiss economic data, all recent data (last few months) has been pretty poor and is suggesting that the economy will fall into recession at some point next year (which is not surprising considering the Euro-zone economy is likely to contract next year). This has the add on affect of increasing the chances of the SNB taking further action to assist the economy by weakening the CHF further.

Hence it's no surprise that I have a very negative fundamental bias on the CHF and thus bullish on ECHF, hence I've been looking for any technical reason to establish a position in this pair.
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  • #805
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:09am Dec 6, 2011 2:09am
Following on from my firm short CHF bias in the previous post, a technical setup yesterday on UCHF - is it any surprise that price has soared up given the fundamentals and current HTF trend...

...going with the trend will (on average) yield bigger runners than going counter-trend for a quick scalp.

Understanding when the fundamentals / sentiment are supportive with the technical outlook will help you understand when your trade is more likely to become a runner or not...if we can deduce this information then we can adapt our trade management accordingly to make sure we give ourselves a good chance of catching the runner.

Fundamentals aligned with technicals is powerful confluence. Just like in the EAUD and GNZD short trades I am currently in.
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  • #806
  • Dec 6, 2011 4:06am Dec 6, 2011 4:06am
Just a note to say I can't respond to Private Messages - It's one of the restrictions based on commercial members along with not being able to post in other threads (I personally think FF should use a common sense approach like other forums do as most people offering a commercial service generally want to help people whether they are paid for it or not - there will always be the scams, misleading/suggestive statements, murky marketing tactics - but that's where the community at large can help), thus those that send me PM's please can you either email me or post on the public section of my Forum.

Thanks
  • #807
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:57am Dec 6, 2011 9:57am
Not bad for a few hours work

I've added it as a trade example to the Forum here.

http://i40.tinypic.com/16kcs55.png

Plenty of time to plan the trade in advance and inform the forum members of the upcoming setup - of course with the correlated confluence this turned the setup into a great one.

http://i40.tinypic.com/w7g8br.png
  • #808
  • Edited 7:57am Dec 7, 2011 7:32am | Edited 7:57am
Today's trades:

1. Short YM - the tools I use were telling me that the top of this range was not going to get broken.

2. Long GNZD - 4HR BUOB - but that's not the real reason behind the trade (trading on bars like that would leave to some serious losses), the location of price and what the market was telling me as a whole meant this trade was a good probability setup.

3, Long Gold - FTB
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  • #809
  • Dec 8, 2011 10:39am Dec 8, 2011 10:39am
New trades for today as per charts below - a very profitable week so far

Reasoning for Euro trades with charts can be seen from my Twitter posts, YM trade is a repeat of yesterday's after getting stopped out at BE.
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  • #810
  • Dec 8, 2011 10:54am Dec 8, 2011 10:54am
Quoting lovejoy80
Today's trades:

1. Short YM - the tools I use were telling me that the top of this range was not going to get broken.

2. Long GNZD - 4HR BUOB - but that's not the real reason behind the trade (trading on bars like that would leave to some serious losses), the location of price and what the market was telling me as a whole meant this trade was a good probability setup.

3, Long Gold - FTB
- BE on YM (back in today as per previous post).
- BE on long GNZD and got taken out finally on remaining short position.
- Gold took profit and got stopped out on the retrace of the 4HR BUOB.
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  • #811
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:23am Dec 9, 2011 1:23am
Quoting lovejoy80
New trades for today as per charts below - a very profitable week so far

Reasoning for Euro trades with charts can be seen from my Twitter posts, YM trade is a repeat of yesterday's after getting stopped out at BE.
Update - still holding all of these trades as the PA bars indicate further movement in my direction.

Ordinarily I would be adding positions when the 4HR PA bars formed last night - (great traders look to add to winning positions remember), however unfortunately I'm not around today so settled for just the existing trades.

But this highlights the ultimate sequence of setups i.e.

1. The location of price on the FX charts combined with the bigger market picture and the repeating risk sentiment pattern suggest with high probability price will 'react' at the confluenced technical areas.
2. 4HR PA bars form as a result of the above indicating further moves in our direction.
3. Daily PA bars form as a result of (1) indicating further moves in our direction.

These all provide ample high probability opportunities to add further positions (whilst protecting our overall risk exposure) into the current moves.

It's amazing what you can achieve if you look at the market as a whole and combine various high probability methods into a complete system that allows you to catch moves from the start - you see 'real' account growth comes with being able to predict with high probability the cause / location / timing of a reaction...waiting for the result of this cause is just a lazy way of capturing a few pips here and there - combine them both and you have a 'complete system'
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  • #812
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:56am Dec 9, 2011 1:56am
I get questions from people asking me about potential returns using different methods - trading is a results orientated business after all.

My suggestion is that people focus on what I call my 'Five Point Plan to Trading Success' - if you can focus on achieving these then the results will come your way.

1. Trade with methods that suit your personality.
2. Be able to trade with a free mind and complete confidence in your ability.
3. Understand fully the negative affect emotions can have on our trading and know how to minimise their affect.
4. Have an efficient trade management plan
5. Be able to make pull together various information during a trade to make logical decisions devoid of emotion.

Everyone has different strengths and weaknesses and thus results from person to person always vary - some people are well suited to trading and some will never cut it.

What about myself? Well I do consider myself to be a pretty good trader, I trade full-time and rely on this income to pay my bills - something that very few people do (less than you think!).

I'm going to do something next year that very few members who sell a teaching service do...I'm going to share an actual live account of mine, not a small meaningless account but a six figure USD Oanda live account. I won't be explaining each and every trade here though, I only help people who are willing to help themselves and show some commitment to wanting to succeed in this business (you see most people quit trading or jump from method to method after 1-3 months). Thus although I will continue to give people help and guidance on here and via email when I have the spare time, the main place I devote my time is to helping my forum and trading room members achieve their goals.

So what can a good trader achieve in terms of results...well I can't answer what others can achieve, some will achieve more than me some less, I'm certainly not the greatest trader out there that's for sure...but here is a summary of my results to the end of November (note: max risk per trade is 4% - average risk is 2%)...

Have a good weekend all
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  • #813
  • Dec 9, 2011 6:21am Dec 9, 2011 6:21am
Hello LJ!
Recently, you've shared a link http://www.mt4i.com/users/thetradersguild1with your trading stats.
Firstly it was a 1000$ account, you've made some profit, then account went below 1000$. And then old account was replaced by new one.
How do you explain that?

Also, would you share your new big account at www.myfxbook.com?
Thank you.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #814
  • Dec 9, 2011 8:59am Dec 9, 2011 8:59am
Quoting Ihor
Hello LJ!
Recently, you've shared a link http://www.mt4i.com/users/thetradersguild1with your trading stats.
Firstly it was a 1000$ account, you've made some profit, then account went below 1000$. And then old account was replaced by new one.
How do you explain that?

Also, would you share your new big account at www.myfxbook.com?
Thank you.
It was intended as a means to share some of my trades...it didn't work very well because like most professional traders I don't use MT4 brokers (I use multiple brokers) and thus only a 'select' number of trades were copied. I stopped it for this reason ie. It was not working and hence the reason why I'm just going to share one of my live accounts instead from next year. It was a small account because the size of the average retail account is circa 1k but as per above I've decided the easiest way is to just share one of my live accounts.

I prefer Mt4i to myfxbook as it provides many more useful stats, its just my preference - its the same service just a better provider IMO.
  • #815
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:13am Dec 12, 2011 9:13am
Quoting lovejoy80
Update - still holding all of these trades as the PA bars indicate further movement in my direction.

Ordinarily I would be adding positions when the 4HR PA bars formed last night - (great traders look to add to winning positions remember), however unfortunately I'm not around today so settled for just the existing trades.

But this highlights the ultimate sequence of setups i.e.

1. The location of price on the FX charts combined with the bigger market picture and the repeating risk sentiment pattern suggest with high probability price will...
Update - took some profit Thursday night, didn't add any more positions at the Daily PA bars because it was pretty obvious price would retrace first, just like it was obvious that price would bounce on the USD pairs too after the daily PA bars broke - shouldn't have expected runners there if you know how to assess simple risk sentiment.

Left the rest at BE as wan't around to trade on Friday and took profit on ECAD this morning when a support level broke.

Added a trade on UJ today based on the 4HR BUOB and the technical long bias I have as explained in my Blog. Took entries on the break and retrace and have now tightened my SL given the 78 level was hit. Willing to take a partial loss in the search of a break of 78 at this stage though.

Short YM again and at BE now.

I'll be particularly interested in Gold and UCHF daily closes tonight for imminent trading opportunities tomorrow.
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  • #816
  • Edited 3:00am Dec 13, 2011 2:16am | Edited 3:00am
Quoting lovejoy80
Update - took some profit Thursday night, didn't add any more positions at the Daily PA bars because it was pretty obvious price would retrace first, just like it was obvious that price would bounce on the USD pairs too after the daily PA bars broke - shouldn't have expected runners there if you know how to assess simple risk sentiment.

Left the rest at BE as wan't around to trade on Friday and took profit on ECAD this morning when a support level broke.

Added a trade on UJ today based on the 4HR BUOB and the technical long bias I have as...
Update - stopped out of UJ position for partial loss (original SL was @ 77.55).

On the active watchlist for today is Gold, EG, GCHF, UCHF and AU - also watching the broader market 'picture' as it suggests a retrace in positive risk sentiment for today, though it's not something I'm getting involved in at a time of year I'm looking to wind down and take some longer term positional trades (plus I have my doubts as something has to 'give' sooner rather than later on certain 'pairs')
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  • #817
  • Dec 13, 2011 11:12am Dec 13, 2011 11:12am
Quoting lovejoy80
Update - stopped out of UJ position for partial loss (original SL was @ 77.55).

On the active watchlist for today is Gold, EG, GCHF, UCHF and AU - also watching the broader market 'picture' as it suggests a retrace in positive risk sentiment for today, though it's not something I'm getting involved in at a time of year I'm looking to wind down and take some longer term positional trades (plus I have my doubts as something has to 'give' sooner rather than later on certain 'pairs')
Out of ENZD and EAUD now.

Gold, AU, UCHF setups on the watchlist triggered today as well as an EU setup (EG didn't quite come close enough and GCHF setup is still valid). Will post some charts later.

Today's moves proved why taking the diligent approach at the time of year and sticking with the technical and fundamental trends is the wise thing to do rather than going looking for the 50-100 pip scalps against the trend - the market is more prone to move with sentiment driven 'shocks' and these shocks have certainly been more bearish than bullish off late.
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  • #818
  • Dec 13, 2011 2:15pm Dec 13, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Update - stopped out of UJ position for partial loss (original SL was @ 77.55).

On the active watchlist for today is Gold, EG, GCHF, UCHF and AU - also watching the broader market 'picture' as it suggests a retrace in positive risk sentiment for today, though it's not something I'm getting involved in at a time of year I'm looking to wind down and take some longer term positional trades (plus I have my doubts as something has to 'give' sooner rather than later on certain 'pairs')
Before (EG didn't trigger as price didn't come close enough to 0.85 and GCHF setup is still valid but not triggered).
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  • #819
  • Dec 13, 2011 2:19pm Dec 13, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Before (EG didn't trigger as price didn't come close enough to 0.85 and GCHF setup is still valid but not triggered).
After:

It was clear that the first UCHF would hold by the correlated confluence that was present at the time of the trade - equities, USDx / other USD pairs all provided supporting confluence. I might explain why in a blog post or on the public side of my forum later if get time.
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  • #820
  • Dec 14, 2011 5:29pm Dec 14, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Update - took some profit Thursday night, didn't add any more positions at the Daily PA bars because it was pretty obvious price would retrace first, just like it was obvious that price would bounce on the USD pairs too after the daily PA bars broke - shouldn't have expected runners there if you know how to assess simple risk sentiment.

Left the rest at BE as wan't around to trade on Friday and took profit on ECAD this morning when a support level broke.

Added a trade on UJ today based on the 4HR BUOB and the technical long bias I have as...
Update on YM trade - taken some profit here and moved SL down slightly. Price formed a perfect series of lower highs and lower lows which is why I was willing to give this price room - I could see the technical trend pattern developing to confirm my fundamental bias.
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