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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #13,081
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:08am Dec 2, 2011 9:08am
Quoting rekon67
NFP traded successfully TP Hit .. the sell 1.3545 - 1.3468 (162 %)
..so NFP can also be trade when you are not with your system ..huh
  • #13,082
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:13am Dec 2, 2011 9:13am
Quoting rekon67
..so NFP can also be trade when you are not with your system ..huh
Now..may be i need to be careful about the buy order i have lined in the 1.34xx area
  • #13,083
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:16am Dec 2, 2011 9:16am
Quoting rekon67
Now..may be i need to be careful about the buy order i have lined in the 1.34xx area
I don't recommed you to overleverage.. it's one of the reasons most traders fail
  • #13,084
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:17am Dec 2, 2011 9:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
In theory you are correct, but unfortunately the USD doesn't have much to offer for yield seekers and that is really the name of the game.

Those seeking yield in a risk-on environment will most likely prefer to buy the junky European bonds for a better yield rather than US bonds.

In the secondary market, one can buy and sell existing sovereign bonds at will for a profit or loss by trading them with other traders. Therefore, buying a junky bond is not a problem as they are not the ones who will have to wait until maturity risking having to take...
thanks a lot, PT, as always, you really know your game and you're really helpful
  • #13,085
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:38am Dec 2, 2011 9:38am
got two shorts this morning, at 1.3474 and 1.3484 with very small targets (felt a bit like scalping in the morning), TP was 1.3464. It felt short for a few pipes two times, so I decided to wait and go through the news.

I had to be away from the computer during the news, so I watched it every now and then on my iPhone. When I saw the spike I waited for the top to be formed and then loaded another short, unfortunately, only at 1.3520. Anyway, all these three shorts hit their target for a total of around 80 pips.

And now it's still going down, but I'm flat for the week.

During moments like these, I always remember that you don't have to be right in order to win, you just have to be "in sync" with the market. Right and wrong are mental constructs, anyway

Wishing a great weekend to you all, my friends
  • #13,086
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:42am Dec 2, 2011 9:42am
Quoting Pbh
I don't recommed you to overleverage.. it's one of the reasons most traders fail
Well .. correct u are...

in the NFP trading is very risky and further if you are far away from the system trading is out of context...but...

I try calculating the maximum range for a day using fibs, regression etc...

so in the Morning I had two scenarios:

1. EUR UP: sell it from 1.3545 , 2nd 1.3660
2. EUR Down: Buy from 1.3400 , 2nd 1.3320

Risk 10 % of Account

Ration: 1 Sell executed 162 % profit.

Caution: Lets see ..
  • #13,087
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:46am Dec 2, 2011 9:46am
Quoting rekon67
Well .. correct u are...

in the NFP trading is very risky and further if you are far away from the system trading is out of context...but...

I try calculating the maximum range for a day using fibs, regression etc...

so in the Morning I had two scenarios:

1. EUR UP: sell it from 1.3545 , 2nd 1.3660
2. EUR Down: Buy from 1.3400 , 2nd 1.3320

Risk 10 % of Account

Ration: 1 Sell executed 162 % profit.

Caution: Lets see ..
Yes you did!
  • #13,088
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:50am Dec 2, 2011 9:50am
It seems to me now that the decoupling of the Euro from other risk asset correlation has come.

Euro down, SP500 up

Is this it?

and I'm short at 1.3458

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,089
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:52am Dec 2, 2011 9:52am
Quoting rekon67
Well .. correct u are...

[...]

1. EUR UP: sell it from 1.3545 , 2nd 1.3660
2. EUR Down: Buy from 1.3400 , 2nd 1.3320

Risk 10 % of Account

Ration: 1 Sell executed 162 % profit.
Remember I'm trying to help,
that said, would you risk 10% capital while managing a 1MM account , perhaps a 100 000 account? would you really risk 10K of your precious hard earned money on one risky trade.

Personally, I wouldn't.

It's just advice so you don't get caught thinking it's got a low Pain to Reward ratio

10% isn't safe at all

Good luck
  • #13,090
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:53am Dec 2, 2011 9:53am
Quoting Gofer Pips
SELL @ 1.3503 on support to resistance test.

This one allowed me to clear with profit sell limits @ 1.3421 and 1.3385 hit on CB intervention.

Acct. up 1.2% for December. Think I may stay flat until Monday.
  • #13,091
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:54am Dec 2, 2011 9:54am
Quoting PipTrapper

and I'm short at 1.3458
London close brought a pretty strong downward pressure...
What's on my mind right now, is the RBA rate cut expectation :S
  • #13,092
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:55am Dec 2, 2011 9:55am
Quoting Pbh
Remember I'm trying to help,
that said, would you risk 10% capital while managing a 1MM account , perhaps a 100 000 account? would you really risk 10K of your precious hard earned money on one risky trade.

Personally, I wouldn't.

It's just advice so you don't get caught thinking it's got a low Pain to Reward ratio

10% isn't safe at all

Good luck
Some people have smaller accounts to take a big risk of the account capital. Meanwhile they have lots more capital in another account of a few of them... or maybe in their pocket. Therefore 10% is a relative term.

Alorente risks 100% of his account but probably only 0.01% his capital.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,093
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:57am Dec 2, 2011 9:57am
Quoting Pbh
London close brought a pretty strong downward pressure...
What's on my mind right now, is the RBA rate cut expectation :S
If it's expected, it's already baked in to the price. Now if they don't cut, that's a different story.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,094
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:59am Dec 2, 2011 9:59am
Trading Forex? Then Name That Tune

Forget the news, chuck out your crystal balls and roll up your lunar-cycle charts. It turns out that music might just hold the key to predicting movements in the financial markets.

That's according to Richard Morrish of Geneva-based fund management firm Peak Partners and portfolio manager of its recently launched Peak FX Performance Fund.

Music is at the heart of his investment approach, which combines Gann technical analysis (charts and angles) with musical intonation and harmonics to develop a proprietary "robust predictive technical system," the firm said in announcing the launch of the new fund.

"The musical system is a key element within the model, as it is the best reflection of human behavior," the company added.

For those of you still slightly baffled, Morrish explained:

"Like markets, music is based on hope and fear. Hope is the happy songs we listen to which make up 90% of our songs and fear is the sad songs that represent approximately 10% of the songs. The correlation to the markets is uncanny! Hope outweighs fear in almost the same percentage."

He may be right. After all, anyone trying to use macroeconomic logic to trade the foreign-exchange market this year has had a rough run.

Still, one has to wonder what the current soundtrack to the market might be. With eight days left to save the euro, perhaps '80s rock classic "The Final Countdown" might be appropriate. If not that, then REM's "It's End Of The World As We Know It" might have to do.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,095
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:01am Dec 2, 2011 10:01am
Quoting PipTrapper
Alorente risks 100% of his account but probably only 0.01% his capital.
I'm trying to make a point sound money management is always good.
If it works for some traders, then it's great
  • #13,096
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:08am Dec 2, 2011 10:08am
This is my "PT squeezing the markets" chart, and "Buma's astrocycles right" also.
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  • #13,097
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:10am Dec 2, 2011 10:10am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Yes you did!
I know if I trade I can not have 100 % success ratio all the time .. but it is more important for me to trust on my Analysis otherwise I'll not be confident anyways ... I think today is most of the important day in my life because I find myself not alone in this forum ... there are others who are there for me appreciates and build self-confidence by warm welcome

Thank you Gofer Sir for your Vouch ..it is truly an honor specially as it is from you Hope will keep this good momentum safe and going with us
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  • #13,098
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:13am Dec 2, 2011 10:13am
1.3503 sell.......95 pips locked and will hold until end of day or stopped out!
  • #13,099
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:14am Dec 2, 2011 10:14am
Quoting rekon67
I know if I trade I can not have 100 % success ratio all the time .. but it is more important for me to trust on my Analysis otherwise I'll not be confident anyways ... I think today is most of the important day in my life because I find myself not alone in this forum ... there are others who are there for me appreciates and build self-confidence by warm welcome

Thank you Gofer Sir for your Vouch ..it is truly an honor specially as it is from you Hope will keep this good momentum safe and going with us
One is not enough for you. You deserve more. Here's another one.
Great work today. You truly understand how the market moves
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,100
  • Edited 10:18am Dec 2, 2011 10:15am | Edited 10:18am
Can somebody tell me why is the Euro going down right now ?


LF



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