If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
- #12,922
- Dec 1, 2011 6:53am Dec 1, 2011 6:53am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #12,923
- Dec 1, 2011 6:58am Dec 1, 2011 6:58am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
After much thought I have decided to take profit on my shorts and remain flat.
Price has pierced the falling channel so I felt it was best at this time to book some profits and then see what happens on Friday when the NFP number is released.
Trades closed today:
1. E/U Short Entry at 1.37676. Exit at 1.34692 = +298.4 pips
2. E/U Short Entry at 1.37662. Exit at 1.34698 = +296.4 pips
3. E/J Short Entry at 104.266. Exit at 104.963 = -69.7 pips
Total gain +525.1 pips
ADD: Top of Page
Price has pierced the falling channel so I felt it was best at this time to book some profits and then see what happens on Friday when the NFP number is released.
Trades closed today:
1. E/U Short Entry at 1.37676. Exit at 1.34692 = +298.4 pips
2. E/U Short Entry at 1.37662. Exit at 1.34698 = +296.4 pips
3. E/J Short Entry at 104.266. Exit at 104.963 = -69.7 pips
Total gain +525.1 pips
ADD: Top of Page
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #12,924
- Dec 1, 2011 7:00am Dec 1, 2011 7:00am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #12,925
- Dec 1, 2011 7:06am Dec 1, 2011 7:06am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
After much thought I have decided to take profit on my shorts and remain flat.
Price has pierced the falling channel so I felt it was best at this time to book some profits and then see what happens on Friday when the NFP number is released.
Trades closed today:
1. E/U Short Entry at 1.37676. Exit at 1.34692 = +298.4 pips
2. E/U Short Entry at 1.37662. Exit at 1.34698 = +296.4 pips
3. E/J Short Entry at 104.266. Exit at 104.963 = -69.7 pips
Total gain +525.1 pips
ADD: Top of Page
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #12,927
- Dec 1, 2011 7:45am Dec 1, 2011 7:45am
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,228 Posts
PippTrapper,
You sir have made a VERY WISE decision. I did the same just ahead of you & thats it for me until NY open on Friday. Always enjoy your post.
___________________________
You sir have made a VERY WISE decision. I did the same just ahead of you & thats it for me until NY open on Friday. Always enjoy your post.
___________________________
- #12,928
- Dec 1, 2011 7:59am Dec 1, 2011 7:59am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
PippTrapper,
You sir have made a VERY WISE decision. I did the same just ahead of you & thats it for me until NY open on Friday. Always enjoy your post.
___________________________
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #12,930
- Dec 1, 2011 8:17am Dec 1, 2011 8:17am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Scratching my head. | 3,578 Posts
Aaronward put it flawlessly when he said
70% of the time we range
20% trend continues
10% trend reverses
so i would bet on the continues for now till the daily shows topping,yields go negative and equities plummet
There are two major flaws...
1. these numbers are not actual statistics... more like stuff I either made up or heard somewhere.
2. probabilities don't work that well in forex.
Take the example of something which only has a 10% probability. For this to happen 5 times in a row is .001% or 1 chance in 10,000. Not very likely. However you take the same probability and run it using some sort of martingale scheme and you have a 60% chance of crashing your account in the first year. Go figure.
Second, lets take the Euro crash event of 2008. I am pretty sure most people would have thought there was no chance that the Euro would crash over 3000 pips in a few months. But it did. Then, not satisfied, it popped up 2500 pips and crashed back down again the very next month. And once again, 1 year later... same story. And now it may (or may not) be doing exactly the same thing all over again. So 3 times in the bag, and it is going for the fourth time. So what is the probability of that?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
- #12,931
- Dec 1, 2011 8:32am Dec 1, 2011 8:32am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #12,933
- Edited 9:55am Dec 1, 2011 9:07am | Edited 9:55am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
After much thought I have decided to take profit on my shorts and remain flat.
Price has pierced the falling channel so I felt it was best at this time to book some profits and then see what happens on Friday when the NFP number is released.
Trades closed today:
1. E/U Short Entry at 1.37676. Exit at 1.34692 = +298.4 pips
2. E/U Short Entry at 1.37662. Exit at 1.34698 = +296.4 pips
3. E/J Short Entry at 104.266. Exit at 104.963 = -69.7 pips
Total gain +525.1 pips
ADD: Top of Page
Well done
I think we'll see one more small pop in risk this afternoon and then drift lower as more shorts cover ahead of NFP ..... Then I'll probably go flat myself.
I'm flat. I think I need to call it a week. I'm getting too greedy and need to be happy with what I have before NFP or another Eurozone headline bites me in the @$$. Booked almost 8000 pips on 26 pairs this week.
Here's my Euro pairs results. Scooped 2514 green pips out of the euro pairs alone.
EUR/USD long
-15
+178
+178
-18
+25
EUR/AUD short
-3
+312
+312
+34
EUR/NZD short
+23
+53
+357
+357
+203
EUR/GBP long
+14
EUR/JPY long
-24
+138
+138
+2
-11
EUR/CHF long
+4
+44
EUR/CAD long
+21
+118
+74
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
- #12,934
- Dec 1, 2011 9:36am Dec 1, 2011 9:36am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
In fact I agree with you ... our status says we are old members in forex factory but did not joined in any thread before this one ... we waited for a place where we will not be feeling as isolated ... and enrich knowledge....so ya ..
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
- #12,935
- Dec 1, 2011 9:46am Dec 1, 2011 9:46am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
- #12,936
- Dec 1, 2011 10:08am Dec 1, 2011 10:08am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Scratching my head. | 3,578 Posts
Well done
I think we'll see one more small pop in risk this afternoon and then drift lower as more shorts cover ahead of NFP ..... Then I'll probably go flat myself.
I'm flat. I think I need to call it a week. I'm getting too greedy and need to be happy with what I have before NFP or another Eurozone headline bites me in the @$$. Booked almost 8000 pips on 26 pairs this week.
Here's my Euro pairs results. Scooped 2514 green pips out of the euro pairs alone.
EUR/USD long
-15
+178
+178
-18
+25
EUR/AUD short
-3
+312
+312
+34
EUR/NZD...
Might want to change your signature line to intimidating pips or something of the like.
Hurts my national pride to see you making money shorting the CAD against the Euro.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
- #12,937
- Dec 1, 2011 10:10am Dec 1, 2011 10:10am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
- #12,938
- Dec 1, 2011 10:12am Dec 1, 2011 10:12am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
So tomorrow is the exciting day we wait for on the first Friday of every month... US Non-farm Employment and the all important unemployment rate.
Wednesday's impressive better than expected ADP private sector employment figures combined with today's worse than expected weekly unemployment claims kind of paints a mixed picture. However, one thing we have to consider is that the NFP number tomorrow is data for the entire month of November whilst today's unemployment numbers are from the last week of November only. So let's look at the figures for the entire month of November:
Nov 10: 393K vs 401K expected
Nov 17: 391K vs 396K expected
Nov 23: 396K vs 389K expected
Dec 1: 402K vs 390K expected
The average of all 4 numbers is approx 396K (395.5 actually, but who's being picky?)
That puts the average for the month of November under 400K, so all in all it's not dismal. It's not great either but hey, at least it's not spelling disaster and is an improvement over September and October which came in at an average of 418K and 404K respectively. So, overall it seems the situation is improving, although slightly.
Tomorrow's number (according to the FF calendar) is expected to be 120K
Last month it came in at 80K vs an expected 97K but the prior two months were revised up by a total of 112K between them. It is interesting to note that the ADP figure last month was 110K vs expected 102K and then revised up to 130K. Considering all these upward revisions lately, I see a bit of a trend starting here. It's a very weak one but still upwards which cannot be bad.
So, why I am babbling on about this? Well simply put I just wanted to make a point about how the US economy (at least in employment terms but not discounting manufacturing and services) is improving despite all the headwinds out of the European debt crisis. At the same time, the European econ data is on a downtrend, and is not delivering any promises of improving any time soon. Therefore, this further reduces any justification for additional QE by the Fed. So what does that mean? Quite simply, it means that the US should still be attractive for yield seeking foreign money. No not to invest in fixed income, but rather in the equity markets. This means a stronger USD because instead of moving the safe haven funds offshore, investors may just move them from fixed income to equities. It will not break the RiskAsset/USD inverse correlation but it will most likely mitigate the effect which in the end makes it more possible for the Euro to dive further down towards the 1.20 area. Ahaa!!! Yes that's right, did you expect me to be Euro bullish all of a sudden? fat chance
Wednesday's impressive better than expected ADP private sector employment figures combined with today's worse than expected weekly unemployment claims kind of paints a mixed picture. However, one thing we have to consider is that the NFP number tomorrow is data for the entire month of November whilst today's unemployment numbers are from the last week of November only. So let's look at the figures for the entire month of November:
Nov 10: 393K vs 401K expected
Nov 17: 391K vs 396K expected
Nov 23: 396K vs 389K expected
Dec 1: 402K vs 390K expected
The average of all 4 numbers is approx 396K (395.5 actually, but who's being picky?)
That puts the average for the month of November under 400K, so all in all it's not dismal. It's not great either but hey, at least it's not spelling disaster and is an improvement over September and October which came in at an average of 418K and 404K respectively. So, overall it seems the situation is improving, although slightly.
Tomorrow's number (according to the FF calendar) is expected to be 120K
Last month it came in at 80K vs an expected 97K but the prior two months were revised up by a total of 112K between them. It is interesting to note that the ADP figure last month was 110K vs expected 102K and then revised up to 130K. Considering all these upward revisions lately, I see a bit of a trend starting here. It's a very weak one but still upwards which cannot be bad.
So, why I am babbling on about this? Well simply put I just wanted to make a point about how the US economy (at least in employment terms but not discounting manufacturing and services) is improving despite all the headwinds out of the European debt crisis. At the same time, the European econ data is on a downtrend, and is not delivering any promises of improving any time soon. Therefore, this further reduces any justification for additional QE by the Fed. So what does that mean? Quite simply, it means that the US should still be attractive for yield seeking foreign money. No not to invest in fixed income, but rather in the equity markets. This means a stronger USD because instead of moving the safe haven funds offshore, investors may just move them from fixed income to equities. It will not break the RiskAsset/USD inverse correlation but it will most likely mitigate the effect which in the end makes it more possible for the Euro to dive further down towards the 1.20 area. Ahaa!!! Yes that's right, did you expect me to be Euro bullish all of a sudden? fat chance
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #12,939
- Dec 1, 2011 10:13am Dec 1, 2011 10:13am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
Well done
I think we'll see one more small pop in risk this afternoon and then drift lower as more shorts cover ahead of NFP ..... Then I'll probably go flat myself.
I'm flat. I think I need to call it a week. I'm getting too greedy and need to be happy with what I have before NFP or another Eurozone headline bites me in the @$$. Booked almost 8000 pips on 26 pairs this week.
Here's my Euro pairs results. Scooped 2514 green pips out of the euro pairs alone.
EUR/USD long
-15
+178
+178
-18
+25
EUR/AUD short
-3
+312
+312
+34
EUR/NZD...
How many % gain total?
you stop per trade ( Pips and risk % )?
More Interested with your MM than system but if you share more details how you trade work would be more better - 8000 pips this week ?? Gosh really
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
- #12,940
- Dec 1, 2011 10:15am Dec 1, 2011 10:15am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Well done
I think we'll see one more small pop in risk this afternoon and then drift lower as more shorts cover ahead of NFP ..... Then I'll probably go flat myself.
I'm flat. I think I need to call it a week. I'm getting too greedy and need to be happy with what I have before NFP or another Eurozone headline bites me in the @$$. Booked almost 8000 pips on 26 pairs this week.
Here's my Euro pairs results. Scooped 2514 green pips out of the euro pairs alone.
EUR/USD long
-15
+178
+178
-18
+25
EUR/AUD short
-3
+312
+312
+34
EUR/NZD...
Won't be long before the workshop is paid for
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it