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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,881
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:33am Dec 1, 2011 3:33am
of course this is just an observation, subject to change
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #12,882
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:40am Dec 1, 2011 3:40am
Quoting the redlion
for the past 3 yrs approx we have been trading from 1.60 to 1.20 with lower highs and lower lows, last three peaks at 1.6037, 1.5143, and 1.4939

last two low's 1.2328, 1.1876,

looks like we are on our way down to hit below 1.20 by december 2012 or jan 2013
I have spent a lot of time looking at the monthly chart. A couple additional pattern are worth looking at: the first swing low took 3 months, the second swing low took 7 months and the third has now been going on for about 8 months.

Second, price has been very nicely supported by the 100 month moving average for the last 10 years with only one significant break. And guess where the 1.315 bounce was...

However when it comes to the issue of the trend... FA says trend to me. TA says trend to me. PA says trend to to me. And to top it all off, PT says trend to me as well.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,883
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:43am Dec 1, 2011 3:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
Go for yield. As long as I am confident that there is yield to be had at reasonable risk, I would go for it as long as I was confident that I had the option of dumping at the first sign of imminent failure.. But then I am not a fund manager
Exactamundo. Which of course is why these deadbeat sovs can sell their junk. Which is why the euro kicks the usd's ass - on a good day. Which is why I need to see the wolfpack closing in on the edge of the herd b4 I load up a euro short position anymore.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,884
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:44am Dec 1, 2011 3:44am
i would like to see 1.31 broken, this month, otherwise still 1.50sh is mathematically possible

as you know, tops can be revisited and re affirmed before a downward thrust


edit: comment was for Aaronward
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #12,885
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:53am Dec 1, 2011 3:53am
Quoting the redlion
i would like to see 1.31 broken, this month, otherwise still 1.50sh is mathematically possible

as you know, tops can be revisited and re affirmed before a downward thrust


edit: comment was for Aaronward
Actually, if you want to talk technical patterns... you have a near picture perfect bull flag that is working on its third leg down, attempting to form a double bottom at 1.18 which should happen some time next year. After which it should shoot up to about 1.8 in the year 2016.

FA actually supports this... The US is actively trying to devalue its currency while Europe is interested in price stability. If you look at the rise from below parity to above parity, this was probably the single most important factor. So (technically) some time next year the European problem should bottom out and the difference in approach to monetary policy should drive the Euro back up.

Only... I wouldn't bet the bank on it. But seriously, if Europe can put its current problems behind it and the global economy takes off... the Euro is going up and the USD down.

Two very big if's.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,886
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:56am Dec 1, 2011 3:56am
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  • #12,887
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:57am Dec 1, 2011 3:57am
German bond futures are getting heavy buys. ECB intervention aboard.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,888
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:58am Dec 1, 2011 3:58am
Quoting AaronWard
Very true. I hope we are passed this as a society but I could wrong. I look at the US death toll for a 10 year war in Iraq. Less than 5000 people. This is about the same as a bad hour during the Civil War, WWI, or WWII. I am hoping that as a society we would rather fight on the internet than in real life. I don't see why not as long as we are fed, housed and clothed. And this era of surplus created by technology makes that all possible just like the surplus created by empire and slavery made the Roman masses possible.

The thing that really...
Power and control that's why the euro experiment will continue..... a small group of people controlling the masses.

On the IRAQ US death toll, yes 5000 is a relatively low number - the other interesting number is the 100,000+ Iraq civilians that were killed (http://www.iraqbodycount.org/)


Tradewise, been scalping shorts on eur/usd & gby/jpy - so far 43pips :-)


trade well,

LP
patience is a virtue
  • #12,889
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:01am Dec 1, 2011 4:01am
Quoting AaronWard
Actually, if you want to talk technical patterns... you have a near picture perfect bull flag that is working on its third leg down, attempting to form a double bottom at 1.18 which should happen some time next year. After which it should shoot up to about 1.8 in the year 2016.

FA actually supports this... The US is actively trying to devalue its currency while Europe is interested in price stability. If you look at the rise from below parity to above parity, this was probably the single most important factor. So (technically) some time next...
beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

you could also argue, on grounds of TA that we are seeing a failed double bottom, or a triple top
remember ranges and volatility is wilder at the tops

also the US economy is showing some health, if the monkeys in Washington get their act together we could very well see us getting out of the depression at which point, interest rates must go, due to all the liquidity injected into the system to prevent deflation will be creating inflationary pressures in the US that the fed must quell, driving capital influx into the dollar, in turn driving the Euro down.

but those are also big if's

i like your thinking
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #12,890
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:22am Dec 1, 2011 4:22am
Bull hold well - uptrend might be continues in NY open later
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,891
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:25am Dec 1, 2011 4:25am
Aaronward put it flawlessly when he said

70% of the time we range
20% trend continues
10% trend reverses

so i would bet on the continues for now till the daily shows topping,yields go negative and equities plummet
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #12,892
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:36am Dec 1, 2011 4:36am
Quoting lovepips
Power and control that's why the euro experiment will continue..... a small group of people controlling the masses.

On the IRAQ US death toll, yes 5000 is a relatively low number - the other interesting number is the 100,000+ Iraq civilians that were killed (http://www.iraqbodycount.org/)


Tradewise, been scalping shorts on eur/usd & gby/jpy - so far 43pips :-)


trade well,

LP
"A Small Amount Of People Controlling The Masses"

I repeat what lovepips posted to lead into my post.

Some here understand what is really going on. Most do not including most Americans. If they really understood Ron Paul would be the next President of the USA.

Let's say I had an extra Million to spend and I wanted to start the education process. I would print the following in every major newspaper in the USA.

I would get one hour of airtime to make a presentation to the American people.

Now the only thing we should understand this morning is this article.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...world-done-now

I am not smart enough to have written it however I am smart enough to read it. Once you read something and understand it then at least you are educated.

I posted a Jim Willie article overnight and I hope everyone read it.

Once you understand the playing field you have a chance to win the game.

The only game we play is to make money trading forex.

I do not know how much PipTrapper nets a month on his trading capital however he should make at least 5% a month.

I use PipTrapper only as an example since he has all the attributes to be a winning trader.

The most important thing each of you needs to do is to find a way to deal with your fears and your greed. We will leave ego alone for the moment.

I can tell within 30 days if someone has a chance to really make good money trading forex.

I have paid my dues over the last 60 years and trading forex over the last 5 years. I have asked myself many times why my record consistently is a ROI of 5% plus a month.

I only share this not to brag about my record however to point out that with your human skills developed then you have a chance.

You cannot trade your fears, greed and ego and be a winning trader in anything.

Since forex can be leveraged at 100 to 1 and you have a chance to make fortunes you also have a good chance to lose as well and most do if we accept the 95% number of losing fx traders.

Once you have your emotions under control you need to understand fundamentals and technicals just like PipTrapper does.

You need a good Risk Management program and you need a proper starting capital to trade properly.

Then you need an EDGE.

My EDGE and what allows me to reach my goals is to understand human nature and therefore understand how people will react in the markets to news that comes out both real news and false spin news.

However my real EDGE is understanding the Money Flow between Asset Classes and understanding the correlations.

A lot of work and effort you might say. Nothing in life comes without work, effort and desire.

Trading forex is my way of life and my desire. I love to trade and share my knowledge with others.

Please read the link attached so you can really understand what the leader and party that has caused all the damage since December 23, 1913.

However they could not have achieved it without the help of the bought politicians with some rare exceptions.

Who is really responsible ? I stongly suggest those that allow it to happen by being sheep and not at least try to understand it. There are no leaders today with courage at least in the USA that can motivate and lead the way. JFK or Lincoln might have today however they were assinated.

Have a good day and enjoy your life and your future.
  • #12,893
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:45am Dec 1, 2011 4:45am
I tell you. We are going up. Up up up. It may not be true, but anyway, youŽd better be extra carefull with shorts right now.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,894
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:46am Dec 1, 2011 4:46am
Quoting FXMindset
Bull hold well - uptrend might be continues in NY open later
2rd and 3rd scenario
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,895
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:52am Dec 1, 2011 4:52am
Quoting knoholygrail
"A Small Amount Of People Controlling The Masses"

I repeat what lovepips posted to lead into my post.

Some here understand what is really going on. Most do not including most Americans. If they really understood Ron Paul would be the next President of the USA.

Let's say I had an extra Million to spend and I wanted to start the education process. I would print the following in every major newspaper in the USA.

I would get one hour of airtime to make a presentation to the American people.

Now the only thing we should understand...
Nice,Like this post.have some basic questions
1.So what is the ideal capital do you think for starting trade forex
2.what is the ideal % gain per month
3.how many % you think we should risk per trade
4.How do you think about compound %


Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,896
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:57am Dec 1, 2011 4:57am
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=27952

Thank Goodness there are honest hard working people such as Ellen Brown.

Her article repeats the same thing that was said about the FED.

We have the knowledge and the solutions. Now all we need is the leader's with courage to educate and get the voters out to make change.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. I think Einstein said that.

That's it for me for today as I am off to do other things while waiting to see NFP at 8:30 AM EST on December 2, 2011.

I still feel 100,000 is the number however it could be 50,000 or 250,000 and then a month later it is revised however who cares then ?

It is all about instant gratification. And so it goes.

"Knowledge Is Power" if you use it.
  • #12,897
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:11am Dec 1, 2011 5:11am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=27952
.....
Thanks for the good read !

Thijs
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #12,898
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:20am Dec 1, 2011 5:20am
Looks like my Sell order @ 1.3524 will get executed in some time ... but not sure with this bullish PA .. may get burn again
  • #12,899
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:26am Dec 1, 2011 5:26am
Quoting FXMindset
Nice,Like this post.have some basic questions
1.So what is the ideal capital do you think for starting trade forex
2.what is the ideal % gain per month
3.how many % you think we should risk per trade
4.How do you think about compound %


Thanks
The least that I ever traded with was $5000 US and my results were not good. The ideal starting amount would be $10,000 US

I have traded $100,000 US and it was much easier to make profits.

I once traded a $5,000,000 Demo account and earned 50% in two months of trading and discovered a magic formula.

I can explain better using the $10,000 US Dollars number.

Let's say I was teaching you to trade or better still you knew how to trade. I can give you now and everyone else my formula that at least works for me.

Using $1000 US Dollars (FXCM UK uses $800 US Dollars to control a $100,000 EUR/USD contract)

I would NEVER have on more than two positions of EUR/USD.

That means my formula is use 20% of your capital maximum.

When I trade $100,000 US, I use the same formula.

That means NEVER more than $20,000 US of capital.

Now for your second question. My ideal is 5% a month and my practical results are 10% and over.

If you ever reach 5% a month you will be one of the Top 100 FX traders in the world.

Just look at Barclay's rating of those who manage over $10,000,000 US and the second category is Over One Million and under Ten Million.

If you can find anyone with a 60% YTD number that means a 5% average.

You get my point I am sure.

You should NEVER risk more than 5% on any one Trade Plan. NEVER !!!

My success comes from winning at least 75% of ALL my FX trades.

My MAXIMUM STOP LOSS is 100 PIPS.

I always scale in my purchases.

Getinng back to the $10,000 US Dollars account.

Right now EUR/USD is at 1.3489

If I was teaching you on a demo account I would tell you to short EUR/USD at 1.3489

Then if it went over 1.3500 I would decide if it was going much higher.

Assume I decide 1.3525 is the HIGH then I would short a second Position at 1.3510 and see what happens.

Trading only $10,000 US my MAXIMUM STOP LOSS is 50 PIPS so if 1.3489 gets to 1.3539 I AM OUT with a loss of $500

If I see it not coming back down since my Strategy did not work I would selll the 1.3510 at 1.3535

I hope this works for you and good fortune.
  • #12,900
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:28am Dec 1, 2011 5:28am
Quoting rekon67
Looks like my Sell order @ 1.3524 will get executed in some time ... but not sure with this bullish PA .. may get burn again
If in doubt stay out. There's no shame in sitting on the sidelines until your confident of the trade.
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