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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,801
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:11pm Nov 30, 2011 1:11pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Maybe not. But the existing sells may become very profitable when sensibility returns and the market gets off its Hopium high. If it goes higher I will just put my foot on the Euro's neck and short it like Tom.
  • #12,802
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:18pm Nov 30, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Maybe not. But the existing sells may become very profitable when sensibility returns and the market gets off its Hopium high. If it goes higher I will just put my foot on the Euro's neck and short it like Tom.
I'll be right there with you buddy

ADD: I am also short the E/J at 104.27
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,803
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:19pm Nov 30, 2011 1:19pm
Tomorrow how will asian market react on these news..?
China cuts bank reserves..
FED,ECB,BOE etc lower swap rates..
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #12,804
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:25pm Nov 30, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Tomorrow how will asian market react on these news..?
China cuts bank reserves..
FED,ECB,BOE etc lower swap rates..
I don't expect any significant reaction from Asia.
The train has already left the station on that one.
Therefore, just normal settlement transactions.
Unless we get more hopiumized news, I expect the market to range until NFP Friday.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,805
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:28pm Nov 30, 2011 1:28pm
Hi guys,

I have found an old joke from 2008. But this one never gets old. Just replace Wall Street with Europe.

T
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,806
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:35pm Nov 30, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't expect any significant reaction from Asia.
The train has already left the station on that one.
Therefore, just normal settlement transactions.
Unless we get more hopiumized news, I expect the market to range until NFP Friday.
Chinese PMI out tonight too which is closely watched.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,807
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:41pm Nov 30, 2011 1:41pm
I dare to disagree with nothing going on around Asia. Chinese banks just received loads of capital. Capital in Yuans, which is not convertible currency. So they may be heavily buying Asian stocks AND commodities. I still dont get exatly relation between commodities beeing denominated in USD and value of USD while someone buys em, but hey, this can influence USD, cant it?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,808
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:47pm Nov 30, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi guys,

I have found an old joke from 2008. But this one never gets old. Just replace Wall Street with Europe.

T
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,809
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:51pm Nov 30, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I dare to disagree with nothing going on around Asia. Chinese banks just received loads of capital. Capital in Yuans, which is not convertible currency. So they may be heavily buying Asian stocks AND commodities. I still dont get exatly relation between commodities beeing denominated in USD and value of USD while someone buys em, but hey, this can influence USD, cant it?

T
Really? I must have missed that. Can you provide a link to the news item?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,810
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:52pm Nov 30, 2011 1:52pm
Hah, that is sort of 'unexpected global risk-on event' I was awaiting 2 weeks ago. I need to make my predictions more 'lagging' .

After all, risk-off for too long is not well seen by most of the people, so the politicians feel 'the itch' when it happens and jump in with some 'super-solution-package' or 'plan to plan a plan after finishing planning phase'. I would call it a rule of the politics, when it is bad they feel obliged to try to talk it off. And even if it is not a solution but just babbling, markets move accordingly, not cause they believe, but cause they expect to find enough many naive people to earn some money on that news.

Hope noone got burned on that crazy jump up. I missed it totally and noticed it just few moments ago, as I recently don't watch market closely (my duties caught me and I need to catch up with my life, so there is simply no time to check everything).
  • #12,811
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:59pm Nov 30, 2011 1:59pm
Looks like the downtrend was broken on the M5. I expect it to grow up to 1.3470. Rationale: as Tom said, there is a lot of money at large in China so they may be buying not only commodities, but also EUR.

As always, the market will tell
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  • #12,812
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:15pm Nov 30, 2011 2:15pm
Italian and Spanish 10 Yr. Bond yield dropped 3% today, but what is most important, the chart has formed a triple top before retreating and the RSI has flashed a bearish divergence. Expect lower yields in the days ahead. This could be a real lifesaver for the eurozone.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,813
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:59pm Nov 30, 2011 2:59pm
I am beginning to see signs that things are improving in the US. In the past, I have mentioned in other threads that my golf accessories and promotional products company in the US is a great indicator of short term economic conditions. For 25 years it has been so. Extremely reliable like Old Faithful. Well, sales are rapidly improving in my company since August and they continue to improve.

As I look at the S&P daily chart, I see the Trix just now coming out of an extreme oversold condition. There is a lot of room for this rally to run if it wants too without it becoming overbought. I visually see in the chart a clear possibility that this rally can continue to new highs in the S&P at 1,350. I am still inclined to think that the rally will fail around 1,270 but I will keep a close eye on the move tomorrow and Friday for a better idea of what to expect.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,814
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:03pm Nov 30, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Really? I must have missed that. Can you provide a link to the news item?

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...deepening.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15962630


China cut reserve ratio of biggest banks from 21,5 to 21. Biggest cut since 2008. 0,5% of Chinese banks capital will be seeking yield. Ratio will be cut on the 5th of December, but banks can (and probably will) be already accomodating.

Btw, Nice adapting of picture .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,815
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:57pm Nov 30, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...deepening.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15962630


China cut reserve ratio of biggest banks from 21,5 to 21. Biggest cut since 2008. 0,5% of Chinese banks capital will be seeking yield. Ratio will be cut on the 5th of December, but banks can (and probably will) be already accomodating.

Btw, Nice adapting of picture .

T
Ahh okay I see. Well one would think that the PBOC did that in order to provide liquidity so the banks can provide more business and consumer loans (economic stimulus) not so that they just tie it up in the financial markets.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,816
  • Nov 30, 2011 4:08pm Nov 30, 2011 4:08pm
hey everyone

Pt is ur short okay?

i see u got a good price to short and how is it now?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #12,817
  • Nov 30, 2011 4:57pm Nov 30, 2011 4:57pm
Quoting bumapatria
hey everyone

Pt is ur short okay?

i see u got a good price to short and how is it now?
my E/J short is 2 pips underwater No biggie... it's just a small position.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,818
  • Nov 30, 2011 4:59pm Nov 30, 2011 4:59pm
Off to bed now. I'll be back for Frankie open.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,819
  • Nov 30, 2011 5:24pm Nov 30, 2011 5:24pm
Our theme for Q4 was ‘Maximum Intervention’ and today was a new high for this exact concept. The day after the European Union Finance Ministers (ECO-FIN) meeting (which once again failed to produce any progress on the EU debt crisis) the Chinese cut the RRR-ratio - the minimum reserves each commercial bank must hold of customer deposits and notes - from 21.5 percent to 21.0 percent. (The RRR started the year in 18.5 percent and this is the first cut since 2008. Back in 2006 the RRR ratio was just below 8.0 percent for a number of years.) This is an indication that China’s help to the growing outlook of a ‘Perfect Storm’ will be monetary easing despite relatively stubborn inflation numbers.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...oves-into.html
  • #12,820
  • Nov 30, 2011 7:04pm Nov 30, 2011 7:04pm
Folks it is time to take a hard look at the impact of government intervention in the currency markets.
This pair the Euro/USD will be solidly supported in an effort to make the Euro appear legitimate.

I thought that the Euro would be allowed to depreciate so as to make peripheries functioning again.
All the ECB had to do was drop interest rates or some form of simple scheme to allow the countries in trouble to recover. That is not happening.

If the big picture is to force the unification of European sovereigns into a United States of Europe that appears to be heading that way.

So for now there is always another opportunity. Based upon that thinking that the Euro is being supported and since the object of trading is to make money. I took a long on the Euro/Aud, so far so good. The stop hunters are at it and the pair is actually moving in the expected direction.
Thats my take for now, so good luck.
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