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  • #1,141
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:59pm Nov 30, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting VennD
Hope everything are well ...

Tracking CAD and USD Indexes ...

On another note ... "those guys" might cut their RRR ... maybe when market starts to open early 1st day of next week. IF it is true ... AU might fall and UC might go up , at that point of surprise attack (as usual). Carefully check your technicals ... gl !
Hi glasses boy, i hope you did well for your USD/CAD hedge trading.
I shorted AU for scalp at 1.0293 today and s/l b/e now.. it may s/l later and AU may still have room to up but i agree with you that AU might fall next week and if it does it probably will fall faster than the other currency.. I am waiting for 4H to turn neutral and slightly bearish then i will short it for the mid-term.. and if it happens, the time might be after 12*4 hours which is almost the end of this week so next week is very possible.
I also decide to long EUR/AUD at 1.3100 with s/l at 1.2900 and t/p to 1.3900 for a mid-term or long-term range trade. Do you have any experience on this pair and do you mind to share any of your opinion about EUR/AUD?
Thanks
  • #1,142
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:11pm Nov 30, 2011 2:11pm
In your opinions do you think the USD/CAD is still set to bounce up past 1.05 over the coming months, or we more likely to drop below parity?
  • #1,143
  • Edited 2:29pm Nov 30, 2011 2:24pm | Edited 2:29pm
Yuchen , ... today Im busy ... collecting ppl's donation . I'll answer to you tomorrow or ... in 10hrs time . Might be good also ... if I say ... I donno !
  • #1,144
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:34pm Nov 30, 2011 2:34pm
I think we're dropping further...
  • #1,145
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:43pm Nov 30, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting adug6
In your opinions do you think the USD/CAD is still set to bounce up past 1.05 over the coming months, or we more likely to drop below parity?
what do you mean over the coming months? you mean just for December or sometimes next year.. 2012 is US election year and USD/CAD usually bullish in US election year.. The two problems for USD/CAD are not going up are:
1. Oil price is not dropping so it supports CAD
2. JPY and CHF are not safe heaven, even though CAD never plays that role but Canadian economy is healthy compare with US and Euro-zone so it supports CAD
But in my opinion, USD/CAD is a range, if you have a small position open (no more than 2% of your capital, you should be ok to hold for a while, although it may be a better idea to cut it if you dont decide to trade for long-term, because USD/CAD needs to break 1.0690-1.0720 for it's long-term move up).
December is usually crazy and the market is very violated so be careful.
  • #1,146
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:54pm Nov 30, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting adug6
In your opinions do you think the USD/CAD is still set to bounce up past 1.05 over the coming months, or we more likely to drop below parity?
I think Yuchen or other forumers might be good in projecting whether U/C will touch 1.05 or not. Open to other forumers for discussion .

... but ... Im going to design specially just for u ... on how U/C might fall (probability) on the Daily, however , u got to wait . Now Im going to sleep

Good Nite every body
  • #1,147
  • Nov 30, 2011 5:27pm Nov 30, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting Yuchen
what do you mean over the coming months? you mean just for December or sometimes next year.. 2012 is US election year and USD/CAD usually bullish in US election year.. The two problems for USD/CAD are not going up are:
1. Oil price is not dropping so it supports CAD
2. JPY and CHF are not safe heaven, even though CAD never plays that role but Canadian economy is healthy compare with US and Euro-zone so it supports CAD
But in my opinion, USD/CAD is a range, if you have a small position open (no more than 2% of your capital, you should be ok to hold...
I mean over the next several months... i thought we would get a decent uptreand after hittng 1.027 the other day, but as we see it has fallen harder than I expected... i;m just hoping it gets back to around 1.03 to recover losses... im still new to forex, so im not sure what to make of the big drop today... if i knew it would go even lower, id sell and go short at this point...
  • #1,148
  • Nov 30, 2011 5:40pm Nov 30, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting adug6
I mean over the next several months... i thought we would get a decent uptreand after hittng 1.027 the other day, but as we see it has fallen harder than I expected... i;m just hoping it gets back to around 1.03 to recover losses... im still new to forex, so im not sure what to make of the big drop today... if i knew it would go even lower, id sell and go short at this point...
may i ask you how large is your account and how many lots did you go long? if you are thinking about for the next several months, your long should be ok, however, you need to have a s/l under 0.9900 and one of the problems is 1.0690-0720 have very large resistence, let's assume you long around 1.0300 so that you close your long at 1.0650 and you earn 350 pips, however, put your s/l below 0.9900 and that's 400 pips loss, which seems not a good idea to trade for long term..
4H chart is bearish, however, 1H chart has a slight bullish signal so you maybe able to cut off some of your loss around 1.0255 (quite possible to test there, but i am not sure)....
Today's market reaction was the news driven and it may brutal for you but at least, you gain experience...
My only suggestion is cut off some of your loss around 1.0255 (it could be wrong but that's just my suggestion so do not trust me so much because i am not that good as well, and you may realize you should put stop loss in the future when you trade).
by the way, may i ask you why do you wanna to ask if USD/CAD will go above 1.05 in the next a few months?? Did you try to just leave your position there and wait for it reach above 1.05 then close it..

VenDD is a good trader you can look at his chart and try to learn from him. remember have a safe money management is the most important thing is forex.

good luck and i hope you are not too sad now.
  • #1,149
  • Nov 30, 2011 5:46pm Nov 30, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting Yuchen
may i ask you how large is your account and how many lots did you go long? if you are thinking about for the next several months, your long should be ok, however, you need to have a s/l under 0.9900 and one of the problems is 1.0690-0720 have very large resistence, let's assume you long around 1.0300 so that you close your long at 1.0650 and you earn 350 pips, however, put your s/l below 0.9900 and that's 400 pips loss, which seems not a good idea to trade for long term..
4H chart is bearish, however, 1H chart has a slight bullish signal so you...
I only asked because reading technical reports, the overal consensus is that USD.CAD is bullish and should retest 1.05 and eventually go past to continue the trend. So yesterday I waited for it to hit a support level then went long. I was hoping to hold at 1.03 (my long entry) and sell when it retested 1.05 (in a few months or weeks i assumed). But because it broke through so many other support levels, I'm worried if maybe the trend wont continue, or may even drop below parity because 1.02 was apparantly a "big support" level, and it cut through that like cheese.
  • #1,150
  • Edited 7:31pm Nov 30, 2011 6:56pm | Edited 7:31pm
Quoting Yuchen
...I shorted AU for scalp at 1.0293 today and s/l b/e now.. it may s/l later and AU may still have room to up , .... I am waiting for 4H to turn neutral and slightly bearish then i will short it for the mid-term.. and if it happens, the time might be after 12*4 hours which is almost the end of this week so next week is very possible.

I also decide to long EUR/AUD at 1.3100 with s/l at 1.2900 and t/p to 1.3900 for a mid-term or long-term range trade. Do you have any experience on this pair and do you mind to share any of your opinion about EUR/AUD?
Thanks...
Sorry Yuchen , I don't have any experience in EUR/AUD , only have entries currently running...

On U/C , closed some scalpers earlier . Only left those 4 entries .

On AU , those are for your souvenirs .... lets say together ..." cheeeese "...
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  • #1,151
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:06pm Nov 30, 2011 8:06pm
aud/cad 30m.
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  • #1,152
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:53pm Nov 30, 2011 8:53pm
Carrying baby for 2 weeks just to see my $ equity value decreasing everyday after shorted at my pivot point around 1.0150-1.0170.. Let see whether it will hit 0.99-1.00 or lower by end of this week..
  • #1,153
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:17pm Nov 30, 2011 9:17pm
Quoting adug6
I only asked because reading technical reports, the overal consensus is that USD.CAD is bullish and should retest 1.05 and eventually go past to continue the trend. So yesterday I waited for it to hit a support level then went long. I was hoping to hold at 1.03 (my long entry) and sell when it retested 1.05 (in a few months or weeks i assumed). But because it broke through so many other support levels, I'm worried if maybe the trend wont continue, or may even drop below parity because 1.02 was apparantly a "big support" level, and it cut through...
imho, cut your long and re-long at 0.9800-0.9900 probably end of this week or early next week..
  • #1,154
  • Edited 2:56am Dec 1, 2011 2:09am | Edited 2:56am
Quoting VennD
As a small director of the fx market ... every end of the month ... some currencies need to be fixed . So ... u got to watch your trades like a hawk ... else ... I'll have to fix your account for you ... I mean ... I'll have to take your money Good luck !
Hello Folks !

I hope ... everybody have lots of money and be happy by now... and for those who doesn't know how to manage their money ... the market will have to take it from you ... manage it for you ... but you won't get a dime ...

If necessary ... some more of your accounts has to be fixed . Watch ! ... (11:45 - 12:30)gmt. Reduce your risk or lock some of your profits . An hour or two after that ... US Jobless Claims , ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will be released. Projected by consensus might be ... nah ! ... it's your job to find them out ... if only you're interested.

Im going to check on some of the charts and post them here ...
  • #1,155
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:57am Dec 1, 2011 3:57am
Ichimoku D1 chart

Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen might cross each other soon, giving a bearish signal

Senkou Span still acts still as a resistance level but was not broken yesterday, also has not been tested (yet) today.

Chikou Span has finally started to cross the candles (from above) bearish.

Cloud: Very thin, high chances of breaking through the cloud

However, i keep a close look on the news today...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,156
  • Edited 4:14am Dec 1, 2011 3:59am | Edited 4:14am
Before U/C touch 1.0123 , signal candle appears to standby - long scalp .

and .... If you don't want to learn candles reading ... that's your problem .

As always ... at this juncture , technically ... 1.0250 will decide where the ball might be roll to ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,157
  • Edited 12:43pm Dec 1, 2011 11:48am | Edited 12:43pm
Quoting VennD
... and for those who doesn't know how to manage their money ... the market will have to take it from you ... manage it for you ... but you won't get a dime ...

If necessary ... some more of your accounts has to be fixed . Watch ! ... (11:45 - 12:30)gmt. Reduce your risk or lock some of your profits . An hour or two after that ... US Jobless Claims , ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will be released. Projected by consensus might be ... nah ! ... it's your job to find them out ... if only you're interested....
It is now ... EXECUTION ... (15:45 - 18:00) gmt . Watch your pants ... don't get wet ...

If it doesn't happen in U/C ... it happen in other pairs ..

My charts ... might looks sloopy but ... mind you ... my trendlines represents where the big monies are ...
  • #1,158
  • Dec 1, 2011 11:55am Dec 1, 2011 11:55am
Quoting VennD
Before U/C touch 1.0123 , signal candle appears to standby - long scalp .

and .... If you don't want to learn candles reading ... that's your problem .

As always ... at this juncture , technically ... 1.0250 will decide where the ball might be roll to ...
I am still waiting for my long term plan to buy USD/CAD at 0.9700 level, lets see if it can get there before Xmas
  • #1,159
  • Edited 1:07pm Dec 1, 2011 1:06pm | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting Yuchen
I am still waiting for my long term plan to buy USD/CAD at 0.9700 level, lets see if it can get there before Xmas
It might ... but not that easy as you think ... especially if the person whose waiting down there ... is Yuchen
  • #1,160
  • Dec 1, 2011 1:17pm Dec 1, 2011 1:17pm
Quoting VennD
It might ... but not that easy as you think ... especially if the person whose waiting down there ... is Yuchen
lol... 9700 is a big number for me! Xmas can move crazy !! I am not too worried about USD/CAD to keep dropping down if i got the opportunity to long at 9700 because i earn CAD if it drops lower than 0.7 i will blow my account but then i can go to US and I will be 1.35 times richer, lol....
On the otherhand, even it not drop to 9700, i see another short-term run to below 1.0000, which is also a good opportunity to enter for a short-term long...
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