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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,621
  • Nov 29, 2011 10:31pm Nov 29, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting The Fool
cool, Aaron. I always watch the asian indices as I get ready to start the day at he fo/lo. I was just wondering what was up with Shanghai off 2%+. i didn't know that about them switching red/green on th charts - but I knew they think red is lucky - often see red doors on Chinese houses/businesses here on the west coast....

do the euro markets follow thru on what the asians show? - often not. but we'll see. as usual these days, the rumors & tweets will prolly rule
The trick with trading the "risk on/risk off" impulse as it travels around the globe is to figure out who is leading and who is following. If it started in NY, then it will probably carry over into Asia the next day. As such, the Asian response is irrelevant to currencies and American equities as they are the originators and Asia is just echoing their response

If the move starts in Asia (and this one did) it is likely to transfer to London and NY. And this is where it typically gets priced into currencies. So it has some predictive value.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,622
  • Nov 29, 2011 10:33pm Nov 29, 2011 10:33pm
Quoting AaronWard
This also underscores why there is no chance the EZ is going to release Greece. If Greece leaves it will certainly default on the ECB. And if this happens, the whole house of cards comes down.
once you go Zone, there's no going back...

http://www.newsbiscuit.com/2011/10/0...ed-by-germany/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,623
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:02pm Nov 29, 2011 11:02pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7AR28J20111128

The ratings agency said on Monday it revised to negative from stable the outlook on the U.S. credit rating after a special congressional committee failed last week to agree on at least $1.2 trillion in deficit-reduction measures.
  • #12,624
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:04pm Nov 29, 2011 11:04pm
In the following interview video on Fox News, Ron Paul explains his plan for monetary freedom and a return to a gold standard. Paul also addresses a dangerous competing idea for the IMF take over control of setting international monetary standards. Finally, Paul explains how he has been temporarily stymied on his plan for a full and complete Fed audit.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-standard.html
  • #12,625
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:07pm Nov 29, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting Pbh
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7AR28J20111128

The ratings agency said on Monday it revised to negative from stable the outlook on the U.S. credit rating after a special congressional committee failed last week to agree on at least $1.2 trillion in deficit-reduction measures.
thanks for the update.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #12,626
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:13pm Nov 29, 2011 11:13pm
There is HUGE believe in the ECOFIN meeting producing news, good news on the fiscal union. Some commentator speculate we will be in EU Heaven.

Clearly these things takes a lot longer time wise than we would like but declaring the EU either dead-or-alive by the next EU Summit on December 9th is slightly overdone. The EU process continues and the politicians clearly feel they have ample time on their hands.

EU monetary history is full of delays and Germany giving in to pressure. Merkel’s position is under pressure and the Bund Yield has become our barometer for pro-EU solutions – for now the trend is clear – we are on-route to Germany giving up and soon.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-quiet-on.html
  • #12,627
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:20pm Nov 29, 2011 11:20pm
We see ADP at 8:15 AM EST leading into jobless claims which need to stay below 400,000 and then the Big One on Friday December 2, 2001.

Thanks for the nice comments Aaron Ward
  • #12,628
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:36pm Nov 29, 2011 11:36pm
Quoting knoholygrail
We see ADP at 8:15 AM EST leading into jobless claims which need to stay below 400,000 and then the Big One on Friday December 2, 2001.

Thanks for the nice comments Aaron Ward
Cheers. I really do think you are a great guy.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,629
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:40pm Nov 29, 2011 11:40pm
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...anuary-23-2012

Good Night - Sweet Dreams - Happy Birthday Fellows !!!
  • #12,630
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:50pm Nov 29, 2011 11:50pm
Quoting AaronWard
Morning all.

I am feeling good because I have come up with yet one more contentious point.

My conclusion: The ESFS is actually a very clever way of defrauding the private banking system and centralizing power in the EU.

Lets look at what happens when the ECB buys Greek bonds on the secondary market. Please note that my numbers and math is not accurate -- I am just trying to illustrate an idea and am too lazy to take out my calculator.

If the ESFS buys Greek bonds which were originally sold for 8% on the secondary market for 28%, nothing...
Nice analysis,

Two end games, someone leaves, or there are bank runs. There were rumors of one last month, and it may take off once people lose total trust. Get a shotgun and a safe and your good to go.
  • #12,631
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:06am Nov 30, 2011 1:06am
Seems bearish
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,632
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:06am Nov 30, 2011 2:06am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...ice-warns.html

  • #12,633
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:31am Nov 30, 2011 2:31am
Quoting Pbh
In the following interview video on Fox News, Ron Paul explains his plan for monetary freedom and a return to a gold standard. Paul also addresses a dangerous competing idea for the IMF take over control of setting international monetary standards. Finally, Paul explains how he has been temporarily stymied on his plan for a full and complete Fed audit.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-standard.html

Ron Paul makes many good points but gold standard isn't one of them...Gold standard will never eliminate the overspending and thus the printing problem....yes, gold can also be "printed" and has been "printed" before.

The one and only problem is overspending in this world. And changing that mindset is the trillion dollar solution.
  • #12,634
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:47am Nov 30, 2011 2:47am
Seems we have a head down ... but I am buying from 1.321x
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  • #12,635
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:02am Nov 30, 2011 3:02am
Quoting AaronWard
Morning all.

I am feeling good because I have come up with yet one more contentious point.

My conclusion: The ESFS is actually a very clever way of defrauding the private banking system and centralizing power in the EU.

Lets look at what happens when the ECB buys Greek bonds on the secondary market. Please note that my numbers and math is not accurate -- I am just trying to illustrate an idea and am too lazy to take out my calculator.

If the ESFS buys Greek bonds which were originally sold for 8% on the secondary market for 28%, nothing...
Now that the ECB is owned by Goldman Sachs this probably isnt too far fetched
  • #12,636
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:07am Nov 30, 2011 3:07am
Good morning all.

As already mentioned late yesterday, I am expecting a tight range into Friday's NFP risk event barring any good/bad news from Europe in the meantime.
I am still quite bearish on the Euro (for obvious reasons). Any announcement out of Europe of a debt crisis plan/solution will not automatically buy the market's confidence. There have been too many empty promises that didn't materialized to anything so far so this time the market is expecting actual action and results... not just talk. Therefore I expect any jawboning to have minimal effect to the upside.

My sentiment is to sell rallies. No buys for me. I am still holding my shorts positions from the high 1.37xx levels and so far I still plan on riding them down to as low as this pair can go. I am still looking to load up on fresh short positions but I need to see a decent correction to the upside first.

Here are my updated H4 and D1 charts.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,637
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:27am Nov 30, 2011 3:27am
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,638
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:50am Nov 30, 2011 3:50am
unfortunately when the italy bonds %7.40 they pushing down
  • #12,639
  • Nov 30, 2011 5:23am Nov 30, 2011 5:23am
stop hunt on aud successful +31.

is it china the news?


i honestly suck at news therefore i always check after.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #12,640
  • Nov 30, 2011 5:29am Nov 30, 2011 5:29am
looking at a 61% fib retrace from the current days high to low. Got some US news out after 1pm GMT, so I'll see how that affects the euro.

Got triggered short at 3265 this morning based on the strategy that I use.

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