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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,601
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:37pm Nov 29, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Italian bond yield at today's auction 7.98% with a bid to cover of 1.5
Absolutely dismal.
PT, it looks like I'm good at guessing
  • #12,602
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:43pm Nov 29, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting Pbh
PT, it looks like I'm good at guessing
Yep.. Except that the market liked this and it rallied because they managed to auction it all off.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,603
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:45pm Nov 29, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting lovepips
some very relevant points.... but isn't what he says true of all governments? Don't many/all governments make decisions that are not necessarily in the best interests of the majority.

Didn't the US&UK decide to invade IRAQ and that certainly wasn't in the best interest of the economy or the general public

The UK leaving the EU that's an interesting one because if the EU members do agree to tighter integration then the UK will be 'out of the loop' and I'm not sure if that's in UK's best interests.
The point made in the video is that the ones pulling the strings are not elected officials and cannot be held accountable by the voting public. In the UK and US, if your leaders do something you don't like, you have the option of not voting for them next time.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,604
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:55pm Nov 29, 2011 12:55pm
Just out of interest, love the thread by the way and read it often, have any of you brought any actual physical gold?

Should the doomsday, end game, currency collapse etc etc etc occur??
  • #12,605
  • Nov 29, 2011 1:47pm Nov 29, 2011 1:47pm
Standard And Poors Downgrades 37 Global Banks, Among Which Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley And Goldman

...and the risk assets go down even though this is no surprise.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,606
  • Nov 29, 2011 1:50pm Nov 29, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting stubbys
Just out of interest, love the thread by the way and read it often, have any of you brought any actual physical gold?

Should the doomsday, end game, currency collapse etc etc etc occur??
You'd be better off with a vegetable garden, a couple of fruit trees, some chickens and roosters and maybe a cow. Oh don't forget a horse and carriage to get around.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,607
  • Nov 29, 2011 1:53pm Nov 29, 2011 1:53pm
S&P just cut ratings on a bunch of US, Japanese and UK banks with their new rating methodology.


Just have to love these chicken**** after hours moves.


Add: PT beat me too it
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,608
  • Nov 29, 2011 2:01pm Nov 29, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting dddd
what is your take on this: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/break...170250483.html

and the fact that the market just shrugs it off...euro problem more important?
The market did not shrug it off when AMR's financial troubles were first announced earlier this year. Therefore this is considered very baked in to the market and old news.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,609
  • Nov 29, 2011 2:09pm Nov 29, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
You'd be better off with a vegetable garden, a couple of fruit trees, some chickens and roosters and maybe a cow. Oh don't forget a horse and carriage to get around.
I have been wondering about this since the time gold was about 1300 and no stopping.

i mean seriously...gold has absolutely no fundamental value...If people are so scared of the doomsday then what PT just recommended makes the most sense...but hey, gold is fcking awesome !

Moreover, if gold boomers drive the gold value very high then once we're back at stone age noone's gonna care about paying this much for it. Everyone's gonna switch to barter and all the gold holders will run around naked, hungry...On the bright side, they have a nice looking necklace around their neck
  • #12,610
  • Nov 29, 2011 2:27pm Nov 29, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting lumesh
I have been wondering about this since the time gold was about 1300 and no stopping.

i mean seriously...gold has absolutely no fundamental value...If people are so scared of the doomsday then what PT just recommended makes the most sense...but hey, gold is fcking awesome !

Moreover, if gold boomers drive the gold value very high then once we're back at stone age noone's gonna care about paying this much for it. Everyone's gonna switch to barter and all the gold holders will run around naked, hungry...On the bright side, they have a nice looking...

Gold is an inflation hedge. Worthless if your down to trading some rabbit meat and deer hide for a loaf of bread and potatoes.

But you'll be look cool all blinged out around the burning trash can roasting the rabbit.......... Of couse I suppose you could still use it for filling cavities in your teeth.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,611
  • Nov 29, 2011 3:03pm Nov 29, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting PipKiller
Gold is an inflation hedge.
Actually, it isn't.

I know everybody seems to think it is.

Firstly, if you simply look at the history then you see no real relationship between gold and inflation. There's no correlation between TIPS and gold etc.

If anything, gold is a government BS hedge. Political idiocy hedge. And finally, a gov default hedge (U.S. gov that is) leading to a run on the currency and thus leading to a hyperinflation...so, yeah, in that sense, it's an inflation hedge, i guess.

And, for one reason or another, gold is considered hard currency (dunno why - history, i guess) and with the mainstream understanding of the CB's money printing it seems logical i guess to pile in into a "currency" that cannot be printed.


Quoting PipKiller
But you'll be look cool all blinged out around the burning trash can roasting the rabbit.......... Of couse I suppose you could still use it for filling cavities in your teeth.
  • #12,612
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:26pm Nov 29, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting rekon67
Its funny ... this candle is stretching the Price channels wider
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  • #12,613
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:36pm Nov 29, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting rekon67
Gr8 spirit PT .. Thanks for starting the Game .. I'll be offline for an hour or Two ..just logging off from My Office

My view on the immediate next 8 hr. candle (Current Candle):

1. Candle High - Low. (1.3360 - 1.3280)
2. Candle Trend Bearish - Bull. (Bearish)
3. Possible Entry for Bear / Bull. (Sell @ 1.3345, Buy @ 1.3285) For 20 pips each
Also, that reminds me closing the Quiz contest (forecasting ) we started..Here we go....
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  • #12,614
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:57pm Nov 29, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting Nordic
Solo?
Yes solo, I've done some stupid stuff and shouldn't be still alive. On solo missions I was dropped off by Blackhawk and picked up a few days later when I was done. Battalion listed me MIA for 3 days in Iraq once when my radio went out shortly after being dropped off.

Most of the time I was out with 2 - 8 man teams, 99% of the time as the only American on those teams.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,615
  • Nov 29, 2011 6:18pm Nov 29, 2011 6:18pm
Daily chart 2nd day with a higher high and a higher low. Daily candlestick and Heiken Ashi candles are indecisive again. Price was rejected at the bottom of the supply level and 23.6 fib. Looking like a possible bear flag forming.

While the E$ pair is stuck going nowhere other risk pairs and crosses are rallying, especially the Aussie and Kiwi.

If the risk on rally continues across the markets or traders get a nice piece of hopium from the talking heads I think this pair could possibly rally quite violently ripping through stops playing catch up.

Remember also that today is the last day of the month so we'll likely see some month end flows and fund managers doing some "window dressing"

Trade safe.

I'm still holding my long 1.3292

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,616
  • Nov 29, 2011 6:23pm Nov 29, 2011 6:23pm
Quoting PipKiller
Gold is an inflation hedge. Worthless if your down to trading some rabbit meat and deer hide for a loaf of bread and potatoes.

But you'll be look cool all blinged out around the burning trash can roasting the rabbit.......... Of couse I suppose you could still use it for filling cavities in your teeth.
LOL. My argument for the disaster crews recommendation to buy gold is that guns and bullets will hold value far better if civilization comes to an end. Even discounting their use in defend and hunting, they will increase in value faster than just about anything else.

But when it comes to value... gold comes out of the earth (including search costs) for about $600 an ounce.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,617
  • Nov 29, 2011 7:04pm Nov 29, 2011 7:04pm
Quoting AaronWard
LOL. My argument for the disaster crews recommendation to buy gold is that guns and bullets will hold value far better if civilization comes to an end. Even discounting their use in defend and hunting, they will increase in value faster than just about anything else.

But when it comes to value... gold comes out of the earth (including search costs) for about $600 an ounce.

For $600 I can get a lot more for my money...... 10 lbs of rifle and 100 lbs of brass powder and lead. Much better value for a half crazy lunatic like me

Be a pretty good return on investment when they are worth $1800 an ounce.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,618
  • Nov 29, 2011 7:34pm Nov 29, 2011 7:34pm
Pretty sure that not too many of you follow this particular chart.

This is the 5 day chart of the Shanghai exchange. I still haven't figured out why the Chinese are so upset today, but there it is. It is worth noting the Shanghai exchange 5 days ago was already about 25% off of last years highs.

China & Hong Kong are significant for the Risk on/risk off cycle. Each risk on/off impulse will start somewhere and then transmit itself to the rest of the world. Most often it starts in NY, but it can also start in HK or in Europe. Using risk on/off behavior as a predictor of market behavior can be done... if you identify where it starts.

EDIT: they seem to be worried about the manufacturing PMI which comes out tomorrow. As I am sure you know, since China is the world's factory, China's PMI is one of the better gauges of global demand.

EDIT 2: it is useful to know that green is down and red is up on Chinese exchanges. The typical reason given is that the Chinese think red is lucky... but I personally think the Chinese were just being difficult.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,619
  • Nov 29, 2011 8:07pm Nov 29, 2011 8:07pm
cool, Aaron. I always watch the asian indices as I get ready to start the day at he fo/lo. I was just wondering what was up with Shanghai off 2%+. i didn't know that about them switching red/green on th charts - but I knew they think red is lucky - often see red doors on Chinese houses/businesses here on the west coast....

do the euro markets follow thru on what the asians show? - often not. but we'll see. as usual these days, the rumors & tweets will prolly rule
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,620
  • Edited 8:32pm Nov 29, 2011 8:16pm | Edited 8:32pm
Morning all.

I am feeling good because I have come up with yet one more contentious point.

My conclusion: The ESFS is actually a very clever way of defrauding the private banking system and centralizing power in the EU.

Lets look at what happens when the ECB buys Greek bonds on the secondary market. Please note that my numbers and math is not accurate -- I am just trying to illustrate an idea and am too lazy to take out my calculator.

If the ESFS buys Greek bonds which were originally sold for 8% on the secondary market for 28%, nothing actually changes for the Greeks. They are still paying 8% on a $1000 1 year bond -- 80 dollars in interest and at the end of the they need to pay back the entire $1000 for a total of $1080. But for the ECB this is windfall profits. They buy these bonds for about $800. At the end of the year they have an additional $280 in the bank. And since the original $800 was either borrowed at 2% or printed for free, this means that an enormous amount of money will start to accumulate in the ECB.

Where does this $280 come from?

Well $80 comes from the Greek government. The other 20% comes from the private banking sector. The bank that paid $1000 for the bond now has only $800.

What is really sweet is that this is mostly risk free for the ECB. Short of Greece leaving the EU, it will not be allowed to default on the portion of bonds owned by the ECB. Private investors though now look like they are going to have to voluntarily take a 50%-75% haircut. Private banking takes yet another hit.

This also underscores why there is no chance the EZ is going to release Greece. If Greece leaves it will certainly default on the ECB. And if this happens, the whole house of cards comes down.

In final analysis, this is a defacto tax on the financial industry to pay for government excesses. The end result is that the ECB becomes rich while the governments & the financial industries go broke.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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