EurAnalysis

GERMAN export soared past €1 trillion euros.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...800681,00.html

Hi guys,

I still aint trading and I am also trying not to read thread in order to avoid another overflow. Just checking charts in the late NY.

338-34 zone got overshoot at H1 but defended awesome in H4 +. Currently fighting for 3318 - 3324 zone and we created H&S on H1. Also, H1 spike above zone 338 - 34 created fifth wave, so we may be heading pretty fast down if this h1 closes below 3318 with 3285 beeing the first step.

I am outa here before I read something.

GL,

Tom

Yep we're on the same page here.
Nice of you to stop by my friend. Come back soon

What TF is that upper trendline?

sisse

I see arrangement of another shoot for 1.343x...

Hmmm not sure about that. It would require a market positive catalyst to get it there.
I think it is more likely for the market to slide sideways into the close and then we see what Asia brings.

daily and h4 trendline.
the higher timeframe the stronger the TL. Of course, you know all this already. On this trade, I was angling for a double top formation with price going back to the 1.3440 area to sell my 2nd lot from 1.3295. But, that daily/h4 TL seems to be fighting any bullish movement right now.

Anyways, not that you need it, since you are obviously very advanced, but my core philosophy/principles of technical analysis is quite simple. i wrote about it here.

here is the post:
___________________________________________
ZEEJAY,

this is one of the many reasons why i like trading confluence. Like you said in this post it can be used to determine trend direction, either short term or long term.

Another thing that i have noticed about trading S/R and TL confluence on larger time frame is that, whenever or where ever they occur, they hardly occur in isolation. They also tends to be part of another pattern, i.e., the TL could be part of a pennant formation or a channel or a head and shoulder or a double top/bottom, ascending/descending triangle, or flag formation, or Gartley formation, etc. For the S/R Levels or demand and supply zones, it is not uncommon for some of them to concides with flat top/bottom triangles or rectangle formations. All these different formations probably serves to bring in other players looking at different things to put their money at that spot of confluence.

Also, it is not at all unusual to see FIB levels zones of 38 or 50 or 61 in close proximity to the confluence spot. Which probably brings in the fib players.

Since focus is on H4 and above, most likely the confluence spot will fall very close to a round number psychological area, which has its attraction for some people.

Even candlesticks comes into play here, because when you zoom into candlesticks, there are times when a candlestick is just a classic chart pattern when viewed from a lower time frame. Try this, go to monthly time frame and choose any random candlestick. Mark its boundaries. Then go to lower and lower time frame to view those boundaries. I can almost guarantee it, that the weekly candlestick will morph into one of many classic chart patterns within those boundaries when viewed from lower time frames. In essence, the candlestick trader could be trading S/R and TL confluence while trading his candlesticks.

Basically, what i am saying is that the reason why S/R and TL confluence on higher time frames shows such remarkable success rate could be because of the converging different styles of traders focusing on the confluence spot for whatever personal reasons.

Take for example, this trade on xau/usd. Immediately, i see at least 7 things converging on the confluence zone.

1. A gartley C-D bullish leg completing itself into the confluence zone.
2. I can see a pennant doing the same too....
3. Same for S/R level or demand zone.
4. Same for a channel
5. Same for 50% fib level.
6. Same for round number.
7. Flat top triangle.

All concentrated at confluence zone. These are just for the ones i can see for now. Maybe this is why confluence on higher time frames(where it gets more noticed by different traders with different style)works so well. Due to many different style of traders putting their money down around that spot for whatever different reasons. I am just hypothesizing here.

Bottomline here is this: the way i see it is that i dont even need to see all these other patterns, when all i need is a confluence of S/R and T/L. That is it. That take care of everything. Which goes to a hypothesis: most technical chart patterns and candlesticks are simply S/R (and/or) TL when you really think about it.

Of course, in order to squeeze large or optimal risk/return of say, 1:8 to 1:20, i employ the hybrid system:trading system within a trading system.

my two cents

_________________________________________

Well, econ data has been good (not that it matters ) recently and remember there is this 2 day meeting again which could result in some sort of headline hopium...

Remember that this week we have NFP Friday and all the other econ data that comes before it including ADP payroll data on Wednesday (Tomorrow)

This is what the EUR & USD econ data release calendar looks like for all medium and high impact events this week, including what has already been released yesterday and today. All times are CET (GMT+1)

Also keep in mind that we have French and Spanish bond auctions on Thursday.

now the rumours are flying!! LMAO. who knows...."an EU diplomat"!!!...what is his/her name?!!!...nobody knows!!....trial balloons....whatever!!!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=328639

Eurozone finance ministers to release EUR 8bln aid to Greece
From talking-forex.com
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/news_quote.gif Euro-zone finance ministers agree to release EUR 8bln aid payment to Greece according to an EU diplomat

Well that explains with enough details what you are doing. I see what you are looking at. I don't use verticals (TL) for trading decision but your last h4 trades make sense in my view too.

GL

sisse

This is the SP500 H1 chart.
Although slightly tilted to the upside today, this has a high probability of being a topping pattern. Also notice the 3 doji candles before the drop to the 200 period MA line (red). Also take note that price has failed to break and maintain above the 1200 psych level. As I noted earlier today, besides being a psych level, the 1200 price falls exactly in the mid-range of the 1150 to 1250 range that the SP500 has been trading in lately. This is therefore an area of technical indecision so the fundies prevail. Since we have big news coming out this week, traders will remain cautions until the release. I expect a tight sideways range till NFP Friday, save and except any good/bad news out of Europe in the meantime.
If we see a very good NFP report on Friday, it will be USD bullish and may very well complete the decoupling process of the EUR/USD from the equity and commodity indices.

Yup... the end of the weeks looks like this:

Cool

Now an un-named ECB source can come out and deny the rumor in about 15 minutes

This is pretty well old news and has already been priced in.

same boat here, man; last climax was 1.3442...that range...anything between 1.3430 and 1.3440 is good enough for me. but, it is still battling that red trendline. good thing i already pocketed some pips and B/E the other lot at 1.3305 = +10 pips above entry point. Now, i need to be patient and let the market sorts itself out.

wishing you good hunting.

P.S. perhaps the lower redline is holding...at least for now....
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1322589375

I think it is funny.


the silly season is upon us.

Love it

Market to ECB: Do something!

Imagine Europe is Princess Leia. That means new European Central Bank president Mario Draghi would be Ben Kenobi.

"You must see these bonds safely delivered to the coffers in Brussels. This is our most desperate hour. Help us, Obi-Wan Draghi. You're our only hope."

read more...

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/...ghi.gi.top.jpg

some very relevant points.... but isn't what he says true of all governments? Don't many/all governments make decisions that are not necessarily in the best interests of the majority.

Didn't the US&UK decide to invade IRAQ and that certainly wasn't in the best interest of the economy or the general public

The UK leaving the EU that's an interesting one because if the EU members do agree to tighter integration then the UK will be 'out of the loop' and I'm not sure if that's in UK's best interests.