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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #10,081
  • Nov 28, 2011 12:56pm Nov 28, 2011 12:56pm
If anybody is interested you can find a lot of old posts by Joel AKA The Real Thing on the trading blox forum under this link:

http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en...o+trading+blox

He was posting under the handle Leonardo.

There is an interesting post regarding him here http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=16672 where he calls a huge move in sugar.

Let me know if you see a similairty in his posting style to that of Peter Crowns, or is that just me being paranoid?
  • #10,082
  • Nov 29, 2011 7:37pm Nov 29, 2011 7:37pm
Hey all,
First post here at FF. Cant stress enough how much I've learnt from peter, Jarroo, james996 and so many others. Seriously, some absolute golden nuggets of knowledge within your posts.
I have been back, and forward testing DIBS for a few months, and have been live the last few weeks. Up about 100 pips so far. Probably exited too early on one or two, but seeing that profit in front of me, couldn't say no.

Wondering if all you great original contributors are still using dibs, and looking to spark up yet more debates about exit strategy.

May the pips be plenty.
  • #10,083
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:33am Nov 30, 2011 3:33am
Quoting Chinadiapers
If anybody is interested you can find a lot of old posts by Joel AKA The Real Thing on the trading blox forum under this link:

http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en...o+trading+blox

He was posting under the handle Leonardo.

There is an interesting post regarding him here http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=16672 where he calls a huge move in sugar.

Let me know if you see a similairty in his posting style to that of Peter Crowns, or is that just me being paranoid?...
On some occasions PC stated that he and Joel were friends.
Patience is magic
  • #10,084
  • Nov 30, 2011 4:04am Nov 30, 2011 4:04am
I have friends too, we don't feel the need to imitate each other internet forums.

Anyway, spreading doubts on the reasons behind the DIBS method being made public was not the intention on my post, but a bit of healthy scepticism never hurt anybody.
  • #10,085
  • Nov 30, 2011 5:25am Nov 30, 2011 5:25am
Quoting heebbyjeeby
Hey all,
First post here at FF. Cant stress enough how much I've learnt from peter, Jarroo, james996 and so many others. Seriously, some absolute golden nuggets of knowledge within your posts.
I have been back, and forward testing DIBS for a few months, and have been live the last few weeks. Up about 100 pips so far. Probably exited too early on one or two, but seeing that profit in front of me, couldn't say no.

Wondering if all you great original contributors are still using dibs, and looking to spark up yet more debates about exit strategy.

May...
Yes, it's a great strategy, used wisely. Out of interest I ran a dibs EA for about the first 6 months of this year - I think it was EUR/USD - and it made a profit (on demo). It's quite an eye opener considering there was no discretion over the entry.
Gone to a better place
  • #10,086
  • Nov 30, 2011 7:54am Nov 30, 2011 7:54am
My very first live trades were with the DIBS method. I had been reading FF for about a year before I opened up a live account. Looking back, it was this method that made me want to open a live account. I traded it successfully for a bit, but then I started to system hop and forgot all about it. Now, 3 years later I'm back looking at the method and seeing the genius of it all.

Making a discretionary system as mechanical as possible is a power I under estimated. When you have clearly defined setups and triggers with simple money management it really doesn't leave too much room to screw things up.

The method has an edge i.e. if traded without any discretion it will make money over time. Once you mature as a trader and you have better discretion and can see breakout setups that are going to launch to the moon, WOW.

The real secret that isn't a secret is in the LONG TAILS. Let those 5%-10% of your trades that survive run run run and make all your money for the year. Again, another point I was not able to see until recently.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still struggling to make this whole trading thing work, but my understanding of the concepts in this thread are only now becoming clear to me.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #10,087
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:13am Nov 30, 2011 8:13am
Anyone else jump on the USDCAD and the GBPUSD today at 12GMT. Already free trade and up well over 100 pips.
DIBS, yet again

Will try to post charts later.
  • #10,088
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:03am Nov 30, 2011 9:03am
Quoting heebbyjeeby
Anyone else jump on the USDCAD and the GBPUSD today at 12GMT. Already free trade and up well over 100 pips.
DIBS, yet again

Will try to post charts later.
Well, ain't you the HeebyJeeby? Please pm me to let me know next time you see a set up like that. I always seem to forget!
Gone to a better place
  • #10,089
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:19am Nov 30, 2011 9:19am
Ya, was a nice trade, and still is.

Cant pm yet, junior member blah blah blah.......
But if you can pm me your email, I will in future no probs.
The statement simple is best does not even come close to how good DIBS is.
FACT.
  • #10,090
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:45am Nov 30, 2011 9:45am
Quoting heebbyjeeby
Ya, was a nice trade, and still is.
OK...
Gone to a better place
  • #10,091
  • Nov 30, 2011 10:51am Nov 30, 2011 10:51am
Here's a trade I missed today. Looked great, very good R:R, and could have taken half of very quickly and let it ride.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy 30-11-11.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #10,092
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:17am Dec 1, 2011 5:17am
Quoting LasVahGoose
My very first live trades were with the DIBS method. I had been reading FF for about a year before I opened up a live account. Looking back, it was this method that made me want to open a live account. I traded it successfully for a bit, but then I started to system hop and forgot all about it. Now, 3 years later I'm back looking at the method and seeing the genius of it all.

Making a discretionary system as mechanical as possible is a power I under estimated. When you have clearly defined setups and triggers with simple money management...
Hi LasVahGoose, I was also an earlier follower of PeterCrowns and DIBS method, I was too intrigued about the theory behind DIBS methodology which seems very sound, but my findings after a lot of coding are quite different from what is presented here.
Infact I coded an EA which replicate the entry mechanism exactly as described by PeterCrowns and using whatever type of trailing mechanism to close positions (different mov avg, donchian channel, reverse dibs ) I never was able to achieve a barely profitable results in 10 years backtest on different pairs (using Alpari data without any errors or data missing).
My conclusion is that there is much more than what it was revealed here by PeterCrowns and TRT that turns this system into a profitable one, actually I didn't find any edge. Also the other systems used by TRT , called FirstStrikePlus and OneNightStand cannot provide any kind of edge (at least in my understanding).

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #10,093
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:11am Dec 1, 2011 7:11am
Quoting skyline
Hi LasVahGoose, I was also an earlier follower of PeterCrowns and DIBS method, I was too intrigued about the theory behind DIBS methodology which seems very sound, but my findings after a lot of coding are quite different from what is presented here.
Infact I coded an EA which replicate the entry mechanism exactly as described by PeterCrowns and using whatever type of trailing mechanism to close positions (different mov avg, donchian channel, reverse dibs ) I never was able to achieve a barely profitable results in 10 years backtest on different...
Thanks for sharing your findings. What periods did you use for the moving average and donchian channel exits?
  • #10,094
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:15am Dec 1, 2011 7:15am
Quoting Chinadiapers
Thanks for sharing your findings. What periods did you use for the moving average and donchian channel exits?
Hi Chinadiapers,
I used sma72,sma90,sma480 (equal to an sma20 on daily charts) and for donchian channel 20 and 50, btw if I can find on my old pc will share my backtest results or I will re-execute them and post here

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #10,095
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:23am Dec 1, 2011 7:23am
Quoting skyline
Hi Chinadiapers,
I used sma72,sma480 and for donchian channel 20 and 50 all on hour, btw if I can find on my old pc will share my backtest results or I will re-execute them and post here

Cheers,
Skyline
Interesting. Thanks again.
  • #10,096
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:28am Dec 1, 2011 7:28am
Quoting Chinadiapers
Interesting. Thanks again.
your welcome
Anyway I'm not stepped in just to criticize this system, I only want to point out that for me until now this system hasn't provided any kind of measurable edge (maybe Peter Crowns and TRT are laughing big time to me ehehe) but in the meantime I'm firmly convinced that the underlaying way to trade correctly is in the dibs approach, thus have a lot of small controlled losses for few very large wins.

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #10,097
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:33am Dec 1, 2011 7:33am
Skyline you have obviously put a lot of work into programming this strategy and reaching your conclusion and I thank you for posting your findings here. Your post just underlines for me the reason Peter Crowns took the time to post this strategy and why he is fallible and computers are not. You left us several clues in your computer critique of the strategy, but here are just two:

"trailing mechanism to close"
I'd have to hunt but Peter Crowns only mentioned the possibility of trailing on the daily 20ma, in a shrug off answer to an enquiry about "how to take profit". I'm sure he'd only say that to a rookie trader. The answer is much more complex.

"there is much more"
Well of course there is. We must know how to trade.

Let me give an example, based on the fact that PC wouldn't ever want to close a runner unless forced. August 2008, we all remember that month? Talk about hot hands, we were holding all the aces. Date, 12th, time, 14:00 GMT. H1 dibs bar GBP/JPY. Trailed on the Daily, that H1 trade would have been stopped out a month later for 1300 pips. Not bad. The risk was about 40 pips. But it could have been 8,000 pips...

I'll leave the reader to work out the rest and understand why a computer programme can never make this strategy work unless it does not trail the stop at all and leaves it to the human to decide.

Here's a post by a succesful trader who is prepared to hold a trade for months and years without ever moving the stop: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post4579938
Gone to a better place
  • #10,098
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:46am Dec 1, 2011 7:46am
Peter Crowns was satisfied with that IBM programmers test results, he even said it closely matched his results, so he must feel that DIBS can be backtested.
  • #10,099
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:52am Dec 1, 2011 7:52am
Quoting smikester
Skyline you have obviously put a lot of work into programming this strategy and reaching your conclusion and I thank you for posting your findings here. Your post just underlines for me the reason Peter Crowns took the time to post this strategy and why he is fallible and computers are not. You left us several clues in your computer critique of the strategy, but here are just two:

"trailing mechanism to close"
I'd have to hunt but Peter Crowns only mentioned the possibility of trailing on the daily 20ma, in a shrug off answer to an enquiry...
Hi smikester,
yes you're right in the sense that maybe this strategy is definitelly a discretional trading system which cannot be automatized and is left to the trader understand when and how exit from a trade.
Btw my answer was also related to an older post made by PC (link) where he stated that someone (a misterious engineer called Nathan that never posted in this forum) was able to run a deep backtest with positive result proving that this strategy could have a positive mathematical expectancy while I cannot find any evidence of this through my backtest analisys :|

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #10,100
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:53am Dec 1, 2011 7:53am
Quoting Chinadiapers
Peter Crowns was satisfied with that IBM programmers test results, he even said it closely matched his results, so he must feel that DIBS can be backtested.
Yeah! That's why I'm struggling understanding if is wrong my ea or if this method cannot be backtested since it depends strongly on trader's discretion.

Skyline
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