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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,321
  • Nov 28, 2011 11:38am Nov 28, 2011 11:38am
Quoting lumesh
heh...go figure...
Well that was the least likely possibility out of the two and you nailed it
I hope you managed to jump in.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,322
  • Nov 28, 2011 11:40am Nov 28, 2011 11:40am
Quoting knoholygrail
I wish you and your wife a very HAPPY BIRTHDAY.

I also would like to personally thank you for starting this thread. The most important thing that you do here is make sure we all can post in a harmonious way without being attacked or put down.

It is no mean feat to have accomplished that with many strong personalities around Forex Factory.

That is because you have earned respect from the posters that come here to post and learn and share their experiences.

You have made this the best thread on Forex Factory.

If anyone ever wants...
Kno,
Thank you so much for your kind words.
I also want to thank you and every one else who posts here for helping to make this thread a place I can truly call my virtual home office.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,323
  • Nov 28, 2011 11:41am Nov 28, 2011 11:41am
Quoting Pbh
Making some pips for PT birthday gift

Already locked in some
When you're ready to send me a check, send me a pm and I'll provide my mailing address
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,324
  • Nov 28, 2011 11:49am Nov 28, 2011 11:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well that was the least likely possibility out of the two and you nailed it
I hope you managed to jump in.

yeah, least likely TECH ANALYSIS wise...my reasonings were not based on tech analysis in the first place.

As far shorting then yes, i went short from 3390, however i killed it at 3340...as market shows, i should've hold on to it...on the other hand i'm also long U/C at 1.0312 so all is good...thus far.
  • #12,325
  • Nov 28, 2011 12:04pm Nov 28, 2011 12:04pm
happy birthday PipTrapper and wish you all the best for trading !
  • #12,326
  • Nov 28, 2011 12:25pm Nov 28, 2011 12:25pm
A very happy bday to you PT I hope the market was kind to you on your birthday.. We'll all celebrate even more when this thread celebrates it's first birthday and/or with the demise of the euro.. Now wouldn't that be ironic if all that happened this time next year!
  • #12,327
  • Nov 28, 2011 12:33pm Nov 28, 2011 12:33pm
First off Congratulations PT and many more.

Have been thinking about a subject that I do not believe has shown up here in this thread as of yet. But it has the potential to be significant as to its effect on the Euro/USD pair.

As most are aware today China started directly allowing the trading of the Yuan against the Cad and the Aussie.
Why does that matter? China has previously amased its foreign reserves basicaly by managing its domestic market and selling Yuan to buy the USD.
It has done so and last count i think that the number was over 3.5 Trillion in reserves. It has bought Treasuries and Euro sovereign debt and has been moving a fair amount of USD holdings into other currencies such as the Euro and Cad and Aussie. Probably even the GBP at times.
This has certainly been a contributing factor to the seemingly never ending weakness of the USD.

It has caused major problems with its trading partners as many levys such as tarrifs were applied to its export goods. It has resulted in a lot of domestic tensions due to rising inflation which is a heavy tax upon the Chinese worker.

Would suggest reading the news section of the FF as it had had a well written article upon China's desire to be declared a market economy.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=328175

The cost of its reserve accumulations may be outweighing the need for it to join up with the rest of the world.

This first move towards an exchange traded currency the Yuan/Cad or Yuan/Aussie means that China's desire to keep accumulating foreign currency reserves is at saturation point.
Implications are twofold,
one that US treasury purchases are being curtailed which will lead to higher interest rates for the US (big negative for equities)
Second: without the need to accumulate USD's going forward they will not recycle USD's into things such as the Euro, Cad,or Aussie.
This may alleviate one of the big sources that have undermined the USD.

I think the reasoning is sound as presented and I do not think I am alone in viewing this subject as being of consequence going forward.

So it appears the politics behind economics do matter.

have not seen any published articles along this line of thought as of yet.
  • #12,328
  • Nov 28, 2011 12:46pm Nov 28, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting foto
First off Congratulations PT and many more.
Thank you foto. Cheers

Quoting foto
This first move towards an exchange traded currency the Yuan/Cad or Yuan/Aussie means that China's desire to keep accumulating foreign currency reserves is at saturation point.
Implications are twofold,
one that US treasury purchases are being curtailed which will lead to higher interest rates for the US (big negative for equities)
Second: without the need to accumulate USD's going forward they will not recycle USD's into things such as the Euro, Cad,or Aussie.
This may alleviate one of the big sources that have undermined the USD.
I have been waiting for this time to come for quite some time... ever since I first heard that China was looking to diversify its reserves.

Quoting foto
I think the reasoning is sound as presented and I do not think I am alone in viewing this subject as being of consequence going forward.

So it appears the politics behind economics do matter.

have not seen any published articles along this line of thought as of yet.
We don't need articles to make this deduction. It is as obvious as a pink elephant wearing glasses.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,329
  • Nov 28, 2011 12:48pm Nov 28, 2011 12:48pm
Well apparently the Pink Elephant is about to put on a show.
would add the way these markets are so forward looking in the neighborhood of a ten minute time bar. Would bet a dollar to a doughnut that it is not factored into price.
  • #12,330
  • Nov 28, 2011 12:51pm Nov 28, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting RodMca
A very happy bday to you PT I hope the market was kind to you on your birthday.. We'll all celebrate even more when this thread celebrates it's first birthday and/or with the demise of the euro.. Now wouldn't that be ironic if all that happened this time next year!
Hmmm So if that happens I would have to start a new thread.

Probably call it "OnYourMarks"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,331
  • Nov 28, 2011 1:16pm Nov 28, 2011 1:16pm
Happy Birthday Mate - PT
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,332
  • Nov 28, 2011 1:20pm Nov 28, 2011 1:20pm
"We have delivered price stability... impeccably!!! impeccably!!!"
~Jean-Claude Trichet 2011~

Here's the proof

EUR/USD Monthly
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EUR/GBP Monthly
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Click to Enlarge Name: eg-mn.gif Size: 16 KB


EUR/JPY Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej-mn.gif Size: 16 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,333
  • Nov 28, 2011 1:30pm Nov 28, 2011 1:30pm
Maybe you should add a trap door on the far right side PT
  • #12,334
  • Nov 28, 2011 1:34pm Nov 28, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
"We have delivered price stability... impeccably!!! impeccably!!!"
~Jean-Claude Trichet 2011~

Here's the proof

EUR/USD Monthly
Attachment

EUR/GBP Monthly
Attachment

EUR/JPY Monthly
Attachment
Looks more like he needs a new battery for his pacemaker
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,335
  • Nov 28, 2011 1:46pm Nov 28, 2011 1:46pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
http://consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cm...aff/126389.pdf

"We must intensify our efforts to realize the untapped potential of transatlantic economic co-operation to generate new opportunities for jobs and growth, particularly in emerging sectors. We are committed to making the EU-U.S. trade and investment relationship – already the largest and most integrated in the world – stronger. To that end, we have directed the TEC to establish a joint High Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth, co- chaired by the European Commissioner for Trade and the U.S. Trade Representative. We ask the Working Group to identify and assess options for strengthening the EU-U.S. economic relationship, especially those that have the highest potential to support jobs and growth. The Working Group is to report its recommendations and conclusions to Leaders by the end of 2012, with an interim report in June 2012 on the status of this work."

So shorting till June 2012???
  • #12,336
  • Nov 28, 2011 1:58pm Nov 28, 2011 1:58pm
Happy Birthday Piptrapper

Inserted Video
  • #12,337
  • Nov 28, 2011 2:01pm Nov 28, 2011 2:01pm
AFXFin,
This release is written by people who believe (paragragh 7) that it is possible to control global climate within 2 degree centigrade.

So am not so sure about the time frame for shorting.
  • #12,338
  • Nov 28, 2011 2:22pm Nov 28, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting foto
Implications are twofold,
one that US treasury purchases are being curtailed which will lead to higher interest rates for the US (big negative for equities)
I wouldn't bet on it. China is the biggest FOREIGN holder of U.S. bonds not the biggest holder in total. There's a big difference. China actually doesn't own as much of those bonds as is widely believed. (about 7% if my memory isn't cheating me)

It's the FED's action that is keeping the bond market up. But yeah, as far as the yields go, sooner or later U.S. is gonna face the same shit europe does and there's nothing China or anybody can do anything about it
  • #12,339
  • Nov 28, 2011 2:26pm Nov 28, 2011 2:26pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting foto
AFXFin,
This release is written by people who believe (paragragh 7) that it is possible to control global climate within 2 degree centigrade.

So am not so sure about the time frame for shorting.
Resolution of meeting is full of good intentions and no real solutions. That is biggest problem in politics. That's why I believe they are not the right complex to resolve financial crises.
  • #12,340
  • Edited 2:47pm Nov 28, 2011 2:33pm | Edited 2:47pm
Hi Lumesh,

A change in sentiment is all it took to cause a bond failure for Germany last week.
Inflation fears drive nerves to the breaking point and since Bernanke and company have zero credibility when it comes to restraining money printing.
The Fed has nothing they can fall back upon to, when a large customer decides to not shop at the Treasury store.

Markets go along merrily until one moment of critical mass is reached. All at once everyone is headed for the same exit door.

A decent spike in US interest rates has not happened, but in the first half of a move there is seldom much price change. It is only when something becomes more well known that momentum starts to kick in and price really gets going.

An example would be Gold which has been in a bull market for ten years.
That says something about inflation expectations, and god help us all if the bond markets start to resemble the gold market.
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