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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,261
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:38am Nov 28, 2011 4:38am
Quoting Thijs
I'm not quite sure if we should call this a conspiracy theory. The solution for Merkel to the financial crisis in the EU would "mean more Europe, not less Europe". A leaked internal German government memo actually proposes the creation of a "European Monetary Fund" which would be given the power to run the economies of troubled European nations. This "stability union" would be quickly followed by the creation of a full-fledged "political union". Essentially, this leaked memo proposes the creation of a "European Superstate" which...
The real question in my mind is "Who is behind all of this"? I really doubt it is any of the elected officials or national governments. So as long as my theory includes unidentified, non-elected officials pulling the strings and making elected officials dance to their tune (and it does) then it is a conspiracy theory.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,262
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:39am Nov 28, 2011 4:39am
Itīs ironic that the Germans may end up with one EUROPA under their control, but this time, unlike their other two tries, without firing a single shot.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,263
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:39am Nov 28, 2011 4:39am
Quoting Thijs
I'm not quite sure if we should call this a conspiracy theory. The solution for Merkel to the financial crisis in the EU would "mean more Europe, not less Europe". A leaked internal German government memo actually proposes the creation of a "European Monetary Fund" which would be given the power to run the economies of troubled European nations. This "stability union" would be quickly followed by the creation of a full-fledged "political union". Essentially, this leaked memo proposes the creation of a "European Superstate" which will be...
Welcome to the 4th Reich and that's what many in Europe are calling it.
Attached Image
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,264
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:45am Nov 28, 2011 4:45am
We are now at the key trend line. Assaulted, but not broken(yet). But given the nature of PA and the ongoing risk rally, a break seems more likely than not.

And now, a little bit of Q&A:

Q: What is one of the best indicators of a bear market?
A: An unusually large number of days the stock market rallies by 2% or more.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,265
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:46am Nov 28, 2011 4:46am
Another thought which I have ..since we were so close to create a double bottom but the PA is now flying high(which is also ok..until it goes behind the wall)... so may be we have an unfinished business there at the bottom..lets see....
  • #12,266
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:47am Nov 28, 2011 4:47am
Quoting AaronWard
We are now at the key trend line. Assaulted, but not broken(yet). But given the nature of PA and the ongoing risk rally, a break seems more likely than not.

And now, a little bit of Q&A:

Q: What is one of the best indicators of a bear market?
A: An unusually large number of days the stock market rallies by 2% or more.
Also: Strong daily openings followed by weak closes.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,267
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:50am Nov 28, 2011 4:50am
Quoting michaelnew
12 consecutive green candles on the M15 chart, that's something unusual. In Japanese trading they say after 8 consecutive candles into one direction, a correction (or even a trend reversal) should occur. Looks like the next M15 candle will be a bearish corrective one. Wonder if there will be more than one corrective candles. If so, maybe 1.3430 may not be reached during London, the speed won't be sustainable.
yes the 15m candles are showing indecision and current volumes on the 5m suggest that getting to 3430 may be difficult...... I'd like to see a double-top on the 5m candles
patience is a virtue
  • #12,268
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:52am Nov 28, 2011 4:52am
Quoting rekon67
..Hmmm looks somebody is buying EUR .. ok will SELL from the Top
Keep your short then
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,269
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:52am Nov 28, 2011 4:52am
Quoting Alorente
Itīs ironic that the Germans may end up with one EUROPA under their control, but this time, unlike their other two tries, without firing a single shot.
yep that sounds like the plan....
patience is a virtue
  • #12,270
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:54am Nov 28, 2011 4:54am
Quoting Alorente
Also: Strong daily openings followed by weak closes.
I wonder what the DAX will do. Already up by more than 3%. Anybody think it will make it to 5%
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,271
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:56am Nov 28, 2011 4:56am
Quoting lovepips
yep that sounds like the plan....
If that in fact is their plan, they will defend the Euro to death. That cannot be accomplished returning to the original currencies.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,272
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:09am Nov 28, 2011 5:09am
Quoting Alorente
If that in fact is their plan, they will defend the Euro to death. That cannot be accomplished returning to the original currencies.
Yup. That is why I don't think the Euro will disappear. They may kick a country or two out, though. Further, this kick will probably be punitive in nature. Nothing better to keep everybody in line than punishing one person. The Chinese call it "killing the chicken to scare the monkeys".
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,273
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:23am Nov 28, 2011 5:23am
Quoting AaronWard
Yup. That is why I don't think the Euro will disappear. They may kick a country or two out, though. Further, this kick will probably be punitive in nature. Nothing better to keep everybody in line than punishing one person. The Chinese call it "killing the chicken to scare the monkeys".
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,274
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:36am Nov 28, 2011 5:36am
Quoting lumesh
can you explain that, please
Sure.
The Dax30's 5680 resistance (previous support) was not taken out this morning.
This to me makes it clear that the bulls are not back in yet as all that has happened is that price (on the DAX) has simply returned to last Tuesday's low.

Had there been a bull frenzy, it would have at minimum, made an attempt at the 5840/50 level if not beyond.

Here is the H1 DAX chart. My observations here are simply based on my experience of how this index behaves. One of the many indices I watch every day to analyse behavior of traders and investors.

Now this is not to say that it will not happen later today. However there is currently no fundamental support for such a move. Therefore, so far this is purely a technical pullback (Short covering).

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,275
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:42am Nov 28, 2011 5:42am
Quoting FXMindset
.
That is called breeding the chickens with the monkeys to scare everybody. And yes, another excellent analogy for the EZ.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,276
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:47am Nov 28, 2011 5:47am
http://news.goldseek.com/Internation...1322415197.php

What has happened without all the analysis for whatever reason is that the equities markets have bounced up in Asia, Europe and probably in the USA.

Risk is back on so the money flow reverses.

There is much real news coming out this week. The link above is from a source that understands what really is going on out there.

Never forget that there is so much of that going on beyond our eyes so that short term there are ups and downs. In the end it will all breakdown as the next year will bring major changes.

My opinion is not to try to hard to assume what might happen. Observe and understand and look for good opportunities.

Right now I would say one of the major issues to watch is Risk on or Risk off and watch carefully the movements in all the bonds.

Have a great trading week and use proper risk management and choose your spots.
  • #12,277
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:48am Nov 28, 2011 5:48am
Quoting AaronWard
Yup. That is why I don't think the Euro will disappear. They may kick a country or two out, though. Further, this kick will probably be punitive in nature. Nothing better to keep everybody in line than punishing one person. The Chinese call it "killing the chicken to scare the monkeys".
It's not possible to kick any country out of the EU or the EZ/EMU

However, it is quite possible to compel a country to leave on their own accord by simply cutting them off the juice. I should note however, that the 6th aid tranche will still be paid to Greece despite the country not meeting any of it's bailout obligations. Therefore I fully support the idea that Germany wants "more" Europe. Not less.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,278
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:48am Nov 28, 2011 5:48am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-disaster.html

This is a fascinating article and it should not be dismissed out of hand. The journalist is well respected and he might have been asked to write the article as a trial ballon. It does make sense and it will be fascinating to see if it catches on. They ALL need a solution and maybe for now it just might be one to look at.

What if the China government went for it instead and as collateral took the firstborn of all...
I can't see the Fed intervening...........
patience is a virtue
  • #12,279
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:52am Nov 28, 2011 5:52am
Quoting lovepips
I can't see the Fed intervening...........
When you push people with much to lose in a corner, they tend to shoot off their own feet to save themselves. As such I wouldn't completely dismiss the possibility of Fed intervention. The American tax payer will certainly not like it but that will be resolved at the next US elections.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,280
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:53am Nov 28, 2011 5:53am
just two tries? I can remember from my school days the Sacred Romanic Empire, our Charles the 1st (or the 5th in Germany)...

Quoting Alorente
Itīs ironic that the Germans may end up with one EUROPA under their control, but this time, unlike their other two tries, without firing a single shot.
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