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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,241
  • Nov 28, 2011 2:45am Nov 28, 2011 2:45am
Quoting AaronWard
Is this an indirect way of saying that in addition to being bearish long term you are bearish short term? Because there has yet to be a good result from any of the bond auctions.
No... This is my way of saying that either the upward correction will be shallow, or we are about to witness the biggest contradiction is financial market history.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,242
  • Nov 28, 2011 2:50am Nov 28, 2011 2:50am
Up up up
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,243
  • Nov 28, 2011 3:14am Nov 28, 2011 3:14am
Quoting FXMindset
Up up up
..Hmmm looks somebody is buying EUR .. ok will SELL from the Top
  • #12,244
  • Nov 28, 2011 3:15am Nov 28, 2011 3:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
No... This is my way of saying that either the upward correction will be shallow, or we are about to witness the biggest contradiction is financial market history.
Money seeks yield. Get ready for the Santa Claus rally and fund managers doing some end of the year window dressing for their Christmas bonus checks.

I would not be surprised to see around the 1.3730 - 1.3840 on a correction. Above 1.3850 sees a pretty clear path to 1.4000 - 1.4250 area.

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Risk on hard. Be careful with shorts.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,245
  • Nov 28, 2011 3:21am Nov 28, 2011 3:21am
Quoting PipKiller
Money seeks yield. Get ready for the Santa Claus rally and fund managers doing some end of the year window dressing for their Christmas bonus checks.

I would not be surprised to see around the 1.3730 - 1.3840 on a correction. Above 1.3850 sees a pretty clear path to 1.4000 - 1.4250 area.
I wouldn't be surprised to see an equities and commodities rally. However, for the Euro to rally to the 1.37 - 1.38 area would definitely surprise me unless we see some resolution to this crisis.

Anyway, besides the European bond auctions, there is an interesting week ahead of us including NFP Friday. I guess I'll be putting on a fresh batch of popcorn
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,246
  • Nov 28, 2011 3:27am Nov 28, 2011 3:27am
Quoting PipKiller
Money seeks yield. Get ready for the Santa Claus rally and fund managers doing some end of the year window dressing for their Christmas bonus checks.

I would not be surprised to see around the 1.3730 - 1.3840 on a correction. Above 1.3850 sees a pretty clear path to 1.4000 - 1.4250 area.

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Risk on hard. Be careful with shorts.

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Whoa...! This week seems like compact with surprises ... contradictions ... a hole bunch of different strategies ... an excellent year end experience is coming in place ! .... (Need to save myself from nose bleeding )
  • #12,247
  • Nov 28, 2011 3:51am Nov 28, 2011 3:51am
Good Morning Guys,

It seems that the widely expected rebound of the Euro has begun. The chart shows that there is plenty more strength left in this rally. The Trix has flashed its 4th straight bullish divergence (Green arrows), The fast Trix is about to cross the 0.00 line (Very bullish signal), and the RSI has broken out above the descending trendline that started October 28th. Everything looks positive technically with not a negative factor in sight. There is resistance at the 55ema and the wedge wall at around 1.3430. Weīll have to wait until it gets there to see how the PA reacts.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,248
  • Nov 28, 2011 3:52am Nov 28, 2011 3:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
I wouldn't be surprised to see an equities and commodities rally. However, for the Euro to rally to the 1.37 - 1.38 area would definitely surprise me unless we see some resolution to this crisis.

Anyway, besides the European bond auctions, there is an interesting week ahead of us including NFP Friday. I guess I'll be putting on a fresh batch of popcorn
After watching the Euro rise 1100 pips on bad news in October, nothing would surprise me. Besides, most of the movement we are seeing today is USD based. Euro is down against the CAD for the day. USD is not that far off of its high for the year.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,249
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:04am Nov 28, 2011 4:04am
I was thinking this weekend how surprisingly cool Merkel, Sarkozy and Draghi are acting as we near the edge of financial Armageddon. There is no doubt that this calm is strange, especially for politicians. One has to ask the question, "What do they know that we donīt?"

I think the bond vigilantes are starting to ask themselves that question too and a correction in yields may start at any time. These guys need panic to push rates continually higher. They are weak hands though and will race each other to the exits if this calm persists.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,250
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:06am Nov 28, 2011 4:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
I wouldn't be surprised to see an equities and commodities rally. However, for the Euro to rally to the 1.37 - 1.38 area would definitely surprise me unless we see some resolution to this crisis.

Anyway, besides the European bond auctions, there is an interesting week ahead of us including NFP Friday. I guess I'll be putting on a fresh batch of popcorn
They got some good hopium this weekend and it's only 4-500 pips, can do that in a couple days....... But if she gets up there she's probably gone .........

Inserted Video
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,251
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:10am Nov 28, 2011 4:10am
Quoting Alorente
I was thinking this weekend how surprisingly cool Merkel, Sarkozy and Draghi are acting as we near the edge of financial Armageddon. There is no doubt that this calm is strange, especially for politicians. One has to ask the question, "What do they know that we donīt?"

I think the bond vigilantes are starting to ask themselves that question too and a correction in yields may start at any time. These guys need panic to push rates continually higher. They are weak hands though and will race each other to the exits if this calm persists.
If I recall correctly, sometime last week there was news that the merkozy twins agreed to stop disagreeing publicly. I don't remember where I read that, but it was probably on forexlive.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #12,252
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:16am Nov 28, 2011 4:16am
The Daily chart also shows a bullish picture characteristic of a strong correction. The Trix is completing right now the third bullish divergence, the wedge is still intact after the failed Bear rally of Friday and the RSI is also breaking out above the down trendline that has been in force for over a month. The Daily chart shows resistance at 1.3730 (The 55ema) and then at 1.4090 (The 200sma). Weīll have to wait and see, but I am inclined to think that we are about to see a very strong correction in the next 2 weeks.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,253
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:19am Nov 28, 2011 4:19am
This is a nasty thing .... clearly targeting 1.36x...
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  • #12,254
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:19am Nov 28, 2011 4:19am
Quoting Alorente
I was thinking this weekend how surprisingly cool Merkel, Sarkozy and Draghi are acting as we near the edge of financial Armageddon. There is no doubt that this calm is strange, especially for politicians. One has to ask the question, "What do they know that we donīt?"

I think the bond vigilantes are starting to ask themselves that question too and a correction in yields may start at any time. These guys need panic to push rates continually higher. They are weak hands though and will race each other to the exits if this calm persists.
I personally favor a conspiracy theory. At least half of this seeming indecision on the part Europe's leaders is a sham. The problems are real, but they plan to solve it with a fiscal union. There is still too much opposition to this, but every time you see the crisis move to a peak, the leaders do several things. First, they increase the level of mutual liability. Second, they fire anybody who is seriously opposed to a fiscal union. Third, they set the framework for the next crisis. Fourth they float a number of ideas about ways to increase the level of union.

Of course you might think this was just stupidity on the part of the European leaders. Normally I would agree. But then I see the ease at which they reach a deal when they want to, the ease at which they fire anybody with an opposing voice, and the ease with which they do the impossible -- get all the parliaments of Europe to agree with each other.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,255
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:20am Nov 28, 2011 4:20am
Quoting rekon67
This is a nasty thing .... clearly targeting 1.36x...

Curious to know why do you think it is targeting 1.36xx ?


LF
  • #12,256
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:24am Nov 28, 2011 4:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
I would just like to add that the supposed IMF loans for Italy have been denied by the IMF. Furthermore, it is quite clear by looking at the Equity indices that there is no buying going on and the push up was no more than some short covering by those who believed (or hoped for) the IMF loan rumor.
can you explain that, please
  • #12,257
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:24am Nov 28, 2011 4:24am
Quoting LearninForex
Curious to know why do you think it is targeting 1.36xx ?


LF
We have 1.343x in between but the volume it shows could reach 1.36x quickly by next day with this momentum ..(my personal view that's it) ... and by reaching 1.36x it will decide breaking trend or not!
  • #12,258
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:31am Nov 28, 2011 4:31am
As we can see in this 8hrs chart...PA only needs to stay above 1.343x for this candle close and in the next candle if it could get the support of 1.343x ...then 1.36xx is quite reachable by tomorrow.
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  • #12,259
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:31am Nov 28, 2011 4:31am
Quoting AaronWard
I personally favor a conspiracy theory. ...
I'm not quite sure if we should call this a conspiracy theory. The solution for Merkel to the financial crisis in the EU would "mean more Europe, not less Europe". A leaked internal German government memo actually proposes the creation of a "European Monetary Fund" which would be given the power to run the economies of troubled European nations. This "stability union" would be quickly followed by the creation of a full-fledged "political union". Essentially, this leaked memo proposes the creation of a "European Superstate" which will be crammed down the throats of the rest of Europe whether they like it or not. National sovereignty would be a thing of the past and European bureaucrats would run everything. Of course this will never be accepted by the people of Europe until they feel the bitter pain of the coming financial collapse, but we are starting to see that there is already a clear plan for what the Germans wish to implement in the aftermath of the coming crisis. A lot of people have just assumed that if there is a massive financial collapse in Europe and the euro crashes that it will mean that end of the euro and potentially the breakup of the EU. But that is not what the Germans have planned at all.

Thijs
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #12,260
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:38am Nov 28, 2011 4:38am
12 consecutive green candles on the M15 chart, that's something unusual. In Japanese trading they say after 8 consecutive candles into one direction, a correction (or even a trend reversal) should occur. Looks like the next M15 candle will be a bearish corrective one. Wonder if there will be more than one corrective candles. If so, maybe 1.3430 may not be reached during London, the speed won't be sustainable.
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