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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,201
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:11pm Nov 27, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting rekon67
All Brokers are sleeping while EUR is running
Bouncing on 100EMA ... and broken .... wake up my broker! :S
  • #12,202
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:14pm Nov 27, 2011 3:14pm
Europe still remains a fundamentaly broken economic setup.
IMF to the rescue, so what.
Good place to sell and get out of the Euro.

So far the weekend market response has been basicaly a yawn.
100 pip up, will wait for the jury to decide if this is going to turn Europe around.
In the meantime the USD retail sales may be coming in better then expected. Will see on that.
In any event Black friday shows that the US economy is somewhat resilient. No need for QE3 or any more stimulus. The Fed can sit pat for now.
Chance of a US default is lower then it was Thurs.

IMF moving in, default risk is high in Europe.
Opinion only as the market has final say in the matter.
  • #12,203
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:20pm Nov 27, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting rekon67
Bouncing on 100EMA ... and broken .... wake up my broker! :S
My Broker is Broke too...lol
  • #12,204
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:27pm Nov 27, 2011 3:27pm
...I just wonder if SP500 would be a good play now
  • #12,205
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:47pm Nov 27, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting Shawninohio
My Broker is Broke too...lol
...wow..u've lots of money there!!!
  • #12,206
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:49pm Nov 27, 2011 3:49pm
It seems to me EURUSD is going to retest 1.34x today
  • #12,207
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:02pm Nov 27, 2011 4:02pm
Quoting lumesh
wow...above 1.33 already
That's great.. I hope it hits 1.3430 I am looking forward to placing more shorts on this pair.
I guess for that to happen, a whole bunch more traders will have to cover their shorts so it's a long shot. However, with this IMF rumor out, it may be enough to scare a few off.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,208
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:12pm Nov 27, 2011 4:12pm
Why do you guys broker open so early? Mine has just opened and I opened a bunch of short @ 1.330 because it's gapped up 70 pips over here, bad idea?
  • #12,209
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:15pm Nov 27, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting jeff_b
Why do you guys broker open so early? Mine has just opened and I opened a bunch of short @ 1.330 because it's gapped up 70 pips over here, bad idea?
as long as you are using sound money management, it is a great idea.
Expect some volatility though.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,210
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:17pm Nov 27, 2011 4:17pm
What was your open price, PT? I always use MM so no worries there, cheers.

Quoting PipTrapper
as long as you are using sound money management, it is a great idea.
Expect some volatility though.
  • #12,211
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:19pm Nov 27, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Will we see a retrace higher ? Fundamentals and Perceptions right or wrong will lead the way.

It should be a very interesting week.
Echoing a Reuters report on Friday from Brussels, the Sunday newspaper said the French and German leaders were prepared to back a deal with other euro countries that might induce the ECB to intervene more forcefully to calm the euro debt crisis

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...siness+News%29

Good
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  • #12,212
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:23pm Nov 27, 2011 4:23pm
Fake hope #2 beginning
  • #12,213
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:26pm Nov 27, 2011 4:26pm
Quoting PipTrapper
That's great.. I hope it hits 1.3430 I am looking forward to placing more shorts on this pair.
I guess for that to happen, a whole bunch more traders will have to cover their shorts so it's a long shot. However, with this IMF rumor out, it may be enough to scare a few off.

why 3430 ? is it a technical reason ?

it's the second time i hear that...i would either short at 3390-3410 or around 3500...just curious about your reasonings.
  • #12,214
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:42pm Nov 27, 2011 4:42pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Many analysts are correctly concluding it is Game Over for the European Union. The central core nations are exploring the idea of kicking out the most offensive nations, beginning with Greece. It is not so simple, either politically, or economically, or with banks...............
ok first of all that was a well written post...... I would like to point out a couple of things:

1. One cannot state that any analyst is correctly stating anything until the event has come to pass and they have been proven correct. In this regard the euro still exists as does the european union - until that changes, analysts are only giving opinions which in time may or may not be proven correct.

2. There is NO option on the table to 'kick out' any member country of the euro. The option does not exist. Yes a country can leave, but it cannot be kicked out.

The 2-tier euro option may have some merit although I'd need to see more details on exactly how that would work.... the idea of France leading the 2nd tier doesn't seem plausible to me - I would have included France in the Tier1 grouping. Just on that point of a tier1 and 2 euro - I would say that if any country where to agree to the tighter fiscal integration, they'd probably be accepted to tier 1.

Yes the euro does require tighter fiscal and monetary integration and that is going to have to happen.



p.s. Finally let us not forget, the primary reason for the European Union existing is not a monetary one - it is a social one. The fundamental reason for the creation of the European Union was so that Europe would never again go to WAR (remember WWII). The idea that the EU would breakup seems too far-fetched.....
patience is a virtue
  • #12,215
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:47pm Nov 27, 2011 4:47pm
Quoting lovepips

2. There is NO option on the table to 'kick out' any member country of the euro. The option does not exist. Yes a country can leave, but it cannot be kicked out.
oh I recall Trichet said that a million times
  • #12,216
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:51pm Nov 27, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting Pbh
oh I recall Trichet said that a million times
Yes he did and he said it because there is no kickout process defined. That may or may not be a mistake, but that's the way it is.
patience is a virtue
  • #12,217
  • Nov 27, 2011 4:57pm Nov 27, 2011 4:57pm
Quoting lumesh
why 3430 ? is it a technical reason ?

it's the second time i hear that...i would either short at 3390-3410 or around 3500...just curious about your reasonings.
I have been waiting for 1.3430 since the 1.3428 low was broken last week and price failed to go back up and test it as resistance.

Just for confirmation today, also in that area, on the H1 chart we have the falling 200 period moving average (yellow MA line) and it is also in the area of the 61.8% fibo retrace from the last swing high.

There is also more confluence on the H4 chart with a falling trend line resistance and the 55 period moving average

This zone is also an untapped supply zone as seen both both charts. Lower down there is supply as you indicated at the 1.3390 area but other than that I don't see anything else for technical traders to use as a bouncing point downwards so it is weak in my eyes.

H1 Chart
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H4 Chart
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,218
  • Nov 27, 2011 5:02pm Nov 27, 2011 5:02pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I have been waiting for 1.3430 since the 1.3428 low was broken last week and price failed to go back up and test it as resistance.

Just for confirmation today, also in that area, on the H1 chart we have the falling 200 period moving average (yellow MA line) and it is also in the area of the 61.8% fibo retrace from the last swing high.

There is also more confluence on the H4 chart with a falling trend line resistance and the 55 period moving average

This zone is also an untapped supply zone as seen both both charts. Lower down there is...

fair enough
  • #12,219
  • Nov 27, 2011 5:06pm Nov 27, 2011 5:06pm
Quoting lovepips
ok first of all that was a well written post...... I would like to point out a couple of things:

1. One cannot state that any analyst is correctly stating anything until the event has come to pass and they have been proven correct. In this regard the euro still exists as does the european union - until that changes, analysts are only giving opinions which in time may or may not be proven correct.

2. There is NO option on the table to 'kick out' any member country of the euro. The option does not exist. Yes a country can leave, but it cannot...
We agree on what you have said about analyst's. This one however has some insights that I do not have since he has lines open to decision makers or associates of decision makers.

This problem has been there since 2008 and the ECB and the others which include the bankers created a real mess. There was an easy money policy and substanial fraud committed. Finally when the PIIGS started to be a point of discussion each Country had their turn. First you had Iceland and then Ireland. Finally you had Portugal and Greece. Spain, Italy and France were still outside the envelope.

When Greece was bailed out there were conditions applied. Then we moved to a 50% haircut and then we moved to a new government. After that we had Italy start to be affected and then a new government. Meanwhile France and Germany started to disagree and then Bond Yields in Germany went up along with Italy. Now France is in danger of a downgrade.

My point being and I am NOT an analyst however I am a realist.

THERE IS NO SOLUTION other than BANKRUPTCY for Greece.

When that happens the Banks need to finally take their losses. The domino's are falling and Humpty Dumpty will fall off the Wall and the ECB and IMF and Germany will not be able to be different from All The King's Men.

I think many on this thread understand and agree. There are too many political and other issues here that can be solved in time.

As an example of that the IMF is highly influenced by the USA. Do you think under present circumstances the American public will stand for a 400 to 600 Billion loan to Italy for 12 to 18 months ?

Do you think Germany will allow the ECB to print money as the FED does now ?

It is only my opinion however after seeing all the attempts at a solution so far it only becomes clearer to me the solution is CHANGE of the STATUS QUO.

Any other comments agreeing or disagreeing are welcome.

I know what I do not know however this is very similar to the housing crisis in the USA. You do not solve fundamental issues of debt by issuing more debt. The people in Greece will more likely get out of the Euro and default and Germany will help them get there rather than go down with them. Jim Willie made his call and I see it the same way as has many others who now see the handwriting on the wall.

It should be a fascinating week. I look forward to the Europe open and the 2:00 AM EST hour for myself.

Good Trading this week.
  • #12,220
  • Nov 27, 2011 5:07pm Nov 27, 2011 5:07pm
Quoting lovepips
Yes he did and he said it because there is no kickout process defined. That may or may not be a mistake, but that's the way it is.
That is correct. There is no "kick out" option for the EU or the EZ. The EU cannot get rid of anyone and the only way the EZ can get rid of a member is to stop funding them with bailout money and leave them with no option other than to voluntarily leave the monetary union (EZ) and revive their old currency.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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