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  • #61
  • Nov 21, 2011 9:09am Nov 21, 2011 9:09am
Quoting split_unit
Another one of my setups for Monday, this ones a screaming long.
low risk entry point, lets see how it goes...
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  • #62
  • Nov 21, 2011 9:33am Nov 21, 2011 9:33am
SCSS after my entry @ 18.93

Quoting split_unit
low risk entry point, lets see how it goes...
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  • #63
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:14am Nov 21, 2011 10:14am
A sweet short today that got my attention after it broke down.
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  • #64
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:10am Nov 27, 2011 3:10am
Heres a couple of charts from my swing shorts from the 17-11-2011. I wrote about my shorts on my blog www.atb-trader.blogspot.com. Needless to say, the trades played out pretty nicely.
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-11-27_1245_SNDK_Swing_Short.png Size: 312 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-11-27_1249_EBAY_Swing_Trade.png Size: 347 KB
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  • #65
  • Dec 2, 2011 2:05am Dec 2, 2011 2:05am
UNH - High probability setup
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  • #66
  • Dec 3, 2011 1:31pm Dec 3, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting split_unit
UNH - High probability setup
This remains in play
  • #67
  • Dec 27, 2011 11:08pm Dec 27, 2011 11:08pm
Quoting split_unit
This remains in play
Well, I've been away for a while now but am back. Heres the UNH play from almost a month ago. It got to 51.50 and still has the potential to go up after it rests abit.
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  • #68
  • Dec 27, 2011 11:59pm Dec 27, 2011 11:59pm
Heres one setup that caught my attention. JNPR, it has been contracting for 2 days at the 50% retracement level. I expect this to burst soon, as contraction leads to volatility. JNPR is also between round numbers of 21.00 and 20.50.
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  • #69
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:16am Dec 30, 2011 4:16am
Swing longs in two gold stocks as the sector looks poised for an upmove. Stops are below the daily candle low.
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  • #70
  • Jan 4, 2012 6:22am Jan 4, 2012 6:22am
CMG is heading south, however, GS don't think so. They think its heading north, they added it to the conviction buy list. If we get a down day today on good volume, CMG could breakdown fast.
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  • #71
  • Jan 6, 2012 3:45am Jan 6, 2012 3:45am
Quoting split_unit
CMG is heading south, however, GS don't think so. They think its heading north, they added it to the conviction buy list. If we get a down day today on good volume, CMG could breakdown fast.
We didn't get our down day on good volume and that negates our short idea. CMG is starting to look like a solid long.
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  • #72
  • Jan 6, 2012 3:49am Jan 6, 2012 3:49am
Quoting split_unit
Swing longs in two gold stocks as the sector looks poised for an upmove. Stops are below the daily candle low.
We got our uomove in gold and that lifted the two stocks mentioned above. My stop is at b/e on both ideas.
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  • #73
  • Jan 6, 2012 3:53am Jan 6, 2012 3:53am
Quoting split_unit
Well, I've been away for a while now but am back. Heres the UNH play from almost a month ago. It got to 51.50 and still has the potential to go up after it rests abit.
Well, UNH rested and went up, the sustainability of the upmove though isn't clear. I need to see a breach of 53.50 on good volume for me to hold onto my conviction in this move.
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  • #74
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:18am Jan 6, 2012 8:18am
Gameplan


Longs: VIAB, XOM

Breakouts: WDC>33.25, MS>16.30, ESRX>48.50, HON>56.00, RIMM (IDB R=15.30 S=15.00), COP>74.00, NTAP<34.50, POT (IDB R=43.50 S=42.70)

Shorts: NVDA (15.00), LULU (63.25 & 50% retracement level), SNDK (49.50 & 50 retracement level), ESRX (48.50), AET (44.00),SWN (33.75)

Notes:

It looks like a 50/50 bet here today, it will all depend on the NFP number. We could get a saturation short as some of these stocks look extended or we might get a violant breakout to the upside especially if the SPY manages to take out 128.50.

My four scenarios for today are:

A down open with a push down will negate all my ideas except for the IDB.

A down open with a push higher will probably trigger my breakouts which will might cause a violant breakout.

A higher open with a push lower will trigger my saturation plays.

A higher open with a push higher will trigger my breakouts if price holds. If it doesn't then my saturation shorts will come into affect.

*We will be getting a higher opening after the NFP number.
  • #75
  • Jan 9, 2012 11:48am Jan 9, 2012 11:48am
Quoting split_unit
We didn't get our down day on good volume and that negates our short idea. CMG is starting to look like a solid long.
We are still half way through the day and this thing has broken down hard on good volume! And is now pulling back on low volume. Could be a great opportunity to initiate a small swing trade short.
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  • #76
  • Jan 9, 2012 11:56am Jan 9, 2012 11:56am
Quoting split_unit
Heres one setup that caught my attention. JNPR, it has been contracting for 2 days at the 50% retracement level. I expect this to burst soon, as contraction leads to volatility. JNPR is also between round numbers of 21.00 and 20.50.
It blew, finally!
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  • #77
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:48am Jan 17, 2012 2:48am
Quoting split_unit
Well, UNH rested and went up, the sustainability of the upmove though isn't clear. I need to see a breach of 53.50 on good volume for me to hold onto my conviction in this move.
Boy is this UNH setting itself up for a breakout! Tighten your seatbelts and prepare for blastoff, this thing looks set to take out 53.50
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  • #78
  • Jan 27, 2012 8:07am Jan 27, 2012 8:07am
Ray Dalio is bearish AUD/USD along with other emerging currencies...Why? Below are some of my thoughts:

1) If Ray thinks the AUD will go down along with other emerging nations, he probably believes China will go through a hard landing.

2) If China go into recession, demand for metals will go down sending the AUD/USD down.

3) China is also the 2nd country after the USA in terms of GDP, should their demand for metals go down then that should affect the currencies of other emerging countries whose exports to China would fall hence sending their currencies down; it’s a game of supply and demand.

4) EUR going into a recession might not affect the US much but China would definitely feel some pain.

5) AUD/USD is a pair that is extremely sensitive to news from China. AUD/USD is also a pair that reflects global equities health, should the pair crash then that shouldn't be too positive for global equities.

6) Technically, the AUD/USD is in a weekly distribution base. A breakdown could cause mayhem.

7) This will especially have adverse effects on steel and basic materials which is already lagging (SPY/XME).

P.S. Bridgewater is also bullish gold which is pretty obvious with all the central banks printing, he sees inflation thus buying gold as a hedge
  • #79
  • Jan 30, 2012 1:51am Jan 30, 2012 1:51am
Here are some thoughts from my swing trades in gold that day:

There was a mark up in price on the 25th of Jan 2011. This markup was an engulfing candle taking out the daily ranges going back to the 14th of Dec 2011. (My trade was posted on my blog on the 26th, my blog link can be found below)

This markup usually signifies the end of an accumulation phase, it was quite as almost no-one traded it. Gold continued to surge thereafter to close as the strongest sector for the week.

The surge was after the FOMC meeting that the Fed would keep rates unchanged through 2014, however, I believe that this news release was just a trigger that the buyers were waiting for after accumulating the precious metal. It probably would have gone up regardless because everyone knew what was coming.

We got confirmation on the validity of the move after we had a narrow day in our stocks on above average volume, this told me that the sellers were being kept at bay and that the buyers were participants with deep pockets (look at the pennant on the 5 minute chart of GG)

On Friday was got an open below Thursdays close where the stock was bought heavily to give us another engulfing candle that saw follow through to the upside to provide us with further evidence of the move.

Gold might churn a bit here, to pick up some breath. My bias is bullish gold and I would probably give it the most attention this week, with that in mind my stops will be present as my anything could happen in the market.
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  • #80
  • Feb 11, 2012 7:43am Feb 11, 2012 7:43am
Quoting split_unit
Boy is this UNH setting itself up for a breakout! Tighten your seatbelts and prepare for blastoff, this thing looks set to take out 53.50
UNH ready to blow again over 53.50.
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