Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

Hey Bud,
Long time, how you been ? Good to see you back
Shoot me a PM, need to catch up

Whats up everyone? Doing some scribbling I think with many thinks seaming to me to be in transition and have no clear picture using my normal methods. S&P had a huge gap on Friday, so most my settlement is bent to a fill on Monday, maybe Tuesday..With more down give USD more streignth.

With that being said I see possible Cup and handle senario only to reach 1.3600 on EU with S/D zone at around 1.3280 of some interest....GL!

Hi Greenius, nice chart..Interesting in how your fibs are drawn..Not my prettiest chart, but thought I'd post her with S/D, fibo and stuff..Cheers!

Edit.. Just stoled this from Kenny Z ( Romancing the price thread )

http://fibonaccigenius.com/fibonacci-clusters/

i agree with total view and analyses

in my chart there are 2 key elements

1st one signal for up trend if daily closed above 23.6 feb0 ( 1.5803) strong signal that we will see broken of down trends


2nd element

supply and demand zone that have been mentioned it in previous post if price closed above it we will see price goes uo to reach down trend and will be good opportunity to go short near to d TL

and if case price closed below it that we will going to see farther drop up tp 1.4716 as target


http://my.jetscreenshot.com/10291/20...nsrc-189kb.jpg

TRY/JPY. sorry couldnt post it earlier.

UPDATE:

update on TRY/JPY:

greenius, your price target of 1.5656 reached. good work, as always.

gbp/chf : 1.4270 area. beware of 1.4317. of course, still waiting on confirmation.

update on GBP/CHF. price hit 1.4317 = + 37 pips. i already B/E the trade....PRICE is starting to retrace a little...anyways....it can do whatever it wants...already b/e the trade....charts attached:

good thing i b/e the trade at 1.0051....price went up by +74 pips before collapsing bearishly.....the fundamentals won this round: aud/usd has since dropped below that level to 0.9840.

EUR AUD SHORT POSITION

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/10291/20...fyez-185kb.jpg

trade trigger B/E. oh well.

Daily EUUD....Note current btm at 1.3319..note 618% point.. note between 1.3350 and 1.3300.. last month this month 1/4ter AmyC style pivot numbers come in around this area.... also note strong daily diverg on CII.. have found this to be reliable in past at calling change..

my view in EU

http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1322128251.png

update

http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1322128805.png

Hey Dan

Check the S&P as well, I think a strong upward move is immenent for indicies if the 1150ish support area can hold.

UPDATE: Trade eventually went up by +180(chart attached below).....unfortuately this already happened.

Good Morning

I just found this thread earlier this morning and I have read many of the posts here in the last hour or so. To answer to my titleof my post what happens around 2:00 AM EST or GMT + 5 for me is the start of my trading day. I am a full time currency trader that trades off fundamentals and technicals.

I suggest you will see certain pattens everyday that repeat in forex with some exceptions. It has to do first of all with the end of the Asia session which usually gets going around 7:00 PM EST as different time zones kick in and it is in full bloom by 10:00 PM EST.

Things have settled down by 11:00 PM EST and then there is usually not much activity until the time frame you refer to.

2:00 AM EST is when I wake up and start my trading day. We start to get the retail trader's from Europe coming on board. The bank trader's and currency houses start coming into work.

Then at 3:00 AM the FTSE and the DAX and the other's open for trading. There is news out overnight from the various newspapers and of course the Dow futures are showing a direction at that time.

As orders get filled by the bigger players and news is filtered in as the open of trading starts at 3:00 AM EST and if there is new fundamental facts then the stock markets react accordingly. As the money moves in and out of the stock markets they flow into other asset classes such as Gold, Oil and the various European Bonds. The money flow is what moves the charts along with support and resistance levels being factored in.

This happens again at about 7:00 AM EST at the start of the markets opening in North America.

There is the morning newspapers, the digesting of the data out of Europe overnight and of course the talking heads on CNBC along with all the experts. (Joke)

Then at 8:30 AM EST there is data releases in the USA and Canada and the tone is set for the day.

The markets start at 9:30 AM EST and as money flows into and out of the Dow, SP500 it goes elsewhere as well into Gold, Oil, US Bonds and this gets extreme if we have a Risk on or Risk off day.

If the Dow doesgo down on Monday another 300 points of course I also include the SP500, the money usually leaves EUR/USD and if there are margin calls and other factors and Gold gets sold as well. This might happen as US DX gets stronger Gold might react accordingly.

The money then flows into US Dollars and then the only Safe Place (Not For Much Longer) the US Bonds. I watch the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. As the price of the US Bonds go up with the parking of money then the Yields go down.

That is the opposite of what is happening in Italy, Germany and other PIIGS at the moment as their Bunds or whatever sell off the money goes to the safety of US Bonds.

The charts are always moved from the money flow. You can confirm this for yourself by watching the money flow yourself. I never trade without having CNBC in front of me or any similar source of information that shows me the price of Gold, Oil, US Bonds (In North America Session) an the other currencies such as EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF.

USD/CAD moves depending on price of Gold, Oil, The markets move USD/CAD with Risk On or Off and of course the strength of the DX which is 57.6 % made up of EUR/USD.

I hope this post proves useful and this upcoming week might be some week with all the new data coming out including NFP on Friday along with the MESS in Europe.

Of course, i like the detailed analysis. Thanks for the input.

Since you mentioned actively watching the behaviour of oil and gold and how that helps in reviewing the behaviour of USD/CAD...due to the fact that...well, CAD is a commodity dollar...do you factor that in play too when trading the NZD and the AUD...since they are commodity dollars too? What role do china fits into your fundamental picture in all of this? Or do you think agricultural products like milk and wool drives NZD more?

Do you use the correlation between the SP500 with USD/JPY to trade?

How about when there is a divergence in correlation, direct or inverse...with the usual suspects of SP500/GOLD/OIL/BONDS against currencies....in what direction do you weight your fundamental views...what parameters/conditions/criteria do you use to weight them?