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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #10,521
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:31am Nov 17, 2011 3:31am
Quoting dddd
It worked PRECISELY, PERFECTLY as you guessed it would:

First, you predicted that gbp/usd would touch 1.5824; and it sure did.

Then, you predicted that it will then bounced off it to touch 1.5899...guess what? it sure did. just as you predicted.....

thirdly, you predicted that it will then turned around and head straight down....sure as hell going down fast...currently now getting closer to 1.5768.

I fucking love this shit! EXCELLENT WORK, GREENIUS!! fucking bloody good work. Awesome way to take the piss out of gbp/usd with PRECISION kill...


thanks man


green pip all the time
GREENIUS
  • #10,522
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:40am Nov 17, 2011 3:40am
Quoting greenius
view in AU
already B/E the trade at 1.0051. dont know far up it will go.

very sceptical it will appreciate significantly against the USD. the risk contagion in europe is inducing flight to safety - USD....CHF...and JPY... the australian dollar is part of that too...but...they just cut interest rate...and china is aggressively curtailing its expansionary growth rate.....china has been the main engine sustaining both the NZD and AUD......as china slows so does the nzd and the aud.

basically, the fundamentals DOES NOT scream UP, but we will see what the technicals say
  • #10,523
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:40am Nov 17, 2011 7:40am
GU target (Fib) hit. My TP was hit or I would still be in
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  • #10,524
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:42am Nov 17, 2011 7:42am
Hoping we get to these targets this week
Could trade this 2 ways
Break of Fan
Short on Fib target
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  • #10,525
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:44am Nov 17, 2011 7:44am
PA forming a wedge into my target
Weary of this target now as PA has lingered and we are about to close the week
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  • #10,526
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:48am Nov 17, 2011 7:48am
Quoting dddd
hey, saxon and everybody. (halkins trade exotics probably knows). Does anybody knows a good broker for these exotics: PLN, NOK, SEK.(usd, eur, gbp). my spread here is 25 pips. which sometimes affect my r/r on my trade making me pass some over. e.g. take this earlier EUR/SEK trade for example. i couldnt enter at 9.156 because of the big spread. Othewise, it would have been a positive trade.

chart attached:
Na, I am steering clear of PLN, RUB, NOK, SEK, RUB, TRY, ZAR, etc...
Most spreads are super wide. Even IB spreads are wide, so it is comparable across retail/institutional, so not really broker specific.
  • #10,527
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:56am Nov 17, 2011 7:56am
Quoting dddd
I HAVE ATTACHED last week cot data. for both the eur and the gbp. Hey, saxon, have you use the COT as a contrarian tool? When the sentiment is too extreme to the one side, does that predispose you to start looking for trend change in a currency? Almost everytime we have an extreme swing to one end, it is followed by a rubber band swing away. Especially, if the currency is prone towards central bank intervention?
You're a really solid trader dddd. I'm super impressed with you grasp of fundie and technical tools. Just thought to add that.

Now to your question. I dont rely too much on COT, but what I do look for is changes from previous report (-/+), so the change in net. if we have been heading south for two or three cycles, but the rate of change is decreasing, then I could assume a directional change coming in the next week or two (LT). Also, once we move from - bias to + this is a signal as well. But this is lagged as you know so you will probably have already seen this on your charts the week prior. rate of change is a big signal for me, personally. It gives me an idea for my long-term trades and if I want to start tapering off my stacks. Hope that makes sense. Great Question
  • #10,528
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:54pm Nov 17, 2011 8:54pm
GCAD re-testing TL
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  • #10,529
  • Nov 17, 2011 9:02pm Nov 17, 2011 9:02pm
Quoting BigSkinnyJoe
hey i'm new here. quick question: do you (personally) find that knowing spectator positions in any way gives you a hint of future price?
Hi BiGSkinny
I personally do feel that you can get a better feel for market direction and market sentiment by viewing COT data. You can see by comparing spot data with COT data, there is a correlation, or some would say causation. COT data can be an important addition to your trading toolbox. It can give support to your trades, and I feel, signal the end of moves.
My friend Shahab has a great thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216247) that incorporates COT data. Browse his thread and you might get a better undertanding of COT incorporation. But as always, feel free to ask any questions here as well. Hope my answer helped. I will try to give you some better tangible proof tomorrow with some examples of what I mean by Rate-Of-Change analysis.
  • #10,530
  • Nov 17, 2011 9:10pm Nov 17, 2011 9:10pm
As a side note to what I just wrote.
Don't rely on COT (or any single system) data alone.
I have found no stand-alone system that works. All of the tools here work to complement each other and increase probabilites.
  • #10,531
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:58pm Nov 17, 2011 10:58pm
Quoting Saxon
As a side note to what I just wrote.
Don't rely on COT (or any single system) data alone.
I have found no stand-alone system that works. All of the tools here work to complement each other and increase probabilites.
Well said, I've found that bits of several methods work well for me. Hope you are well my friend.
  • #10,532
  • Nov 18, 2011 7:43am Nov 18, 2011 7:43am
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/10291/20...05kv-215kb.jpg
GREENIUS
  • #10,533
  • Nov 18, 2011 8:23am Nov 18, 2011 8:23am
it is the perfect spot: confluence of TL and S/R in a fundamentally downward pair. Without any major news release today. good to go.

1.5875 being the optimal entry zone.

daily and h4 chart attached:
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  • #10,534
  • Nov 18, 2011 8:28am Nov 18, 2011 8:28am
Quoting dddd
it is the perfect spot: confluence of TL and S/R in a fundamentally downward pair. Without any major news release today. good to go.

1.5875 being the optimal entry zone.

daily and h4 chart attached:
Do know dddd. For long time I had look at news only instant rate
GREENIUS
  • #10,535
  • Nov 18, 2011 8:38am Nov 18, 2011 8:38am
Quoting Saxon
Na, I am steering clear of PLN, RUB, NOK, SEK, RUB, TRY, ZAR, etc...
Most spreads are super wide. Even IB spreads are wide, so it is comparable across retail/institutional, so not really broker specific.
i am thinking of taking a good look at them in the fx futures market where the commission is only $6.50 and depending on liquidity, spread can tighten considerable. That is what i read anyways. I will see if it is something i can tolerate. thanks for the input.


Quoting Saxon
You're a really solid trader dddd. I'm super impressed with you grasp of fundie and technical tools. Just thought to add that.
thank you sir. i am most humbled. and you, sir, are one of the traders i truly respect. otherwise, i wont be active on this thread. first came across you in the archives of the trend trading all pairs thread.


Quoting Saxon
Now to your question. I dont rely too much on COT, but what I do look for is changes from previous report (-/+), so the change in net. if we have been heading south for two or three cycles, but the rate of change is decreasing, then I could assume a directional change coming in the next week or two (LT). Also, once we move from - bias to + this is a signal as well. But this is lagged as you know so you will probably have already seen this on your charts the week prior. rate of change is a big signal for me, personally. It gives me an idea...
makes complete sense. rate-of-change is the major signalling aspect of COT data. thanks for elaborating on your preference and thoughts with regards to COT.


Quoting Saxon
Hi BiGSkinny
I personally do feel that you can get a better feel for market direction and market sentiment by viewing COT data. You can see by comparing spot data with COT data, there is a correlation, or some would say causation. COT data can be an important addition to your trading toolbox. It can give support to your trades, and I feel, signal the end of moves.
My friend Shahab has a great thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216247) that incorporates COT data. Browse his thread and you might get a better undertanding...
i couldnt have put it better than myself. thanks for the succint explanation.


Quoting Saxon
As a side note to what I just wrote.
Don't rely on COT (or any single system) data alone.
I have found no stand-alone system that works. All of the tools here work to complement each other and increase probabilites.

perfectly put. Thinking like that can get people crying and complaining in some places, apparently.
  • #10,536
  • Nov 18, 2011 8:43am Nov 18, 2011 8:43am
Quoting greenius
Do know dddd. For long time I had look at news only instant rate
I totally respect that. Another trader i know is like that. his name is yunero,. He only bothers with rate news; everything else, he ignores. I honestly cannot say red-labeled news terrible hurt his performance. i track him for months. his performance is nothing short of impressive.
  • #10,537
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:48am Nov 18, 2011 9:48am
Quoting Saxon
GCAD re-testing TL
+52 pips . hope it didnt retrace too much on you.

good work, sir.
  • #10,538
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:23pm Nov 18, 2011 10:23pm
Quoting Saxon
Na, I am steering clear of PLN, RUB, NOK, SEK, RUB, TRY, ZAR, etc...
Most spreads are super wide. Even IB spreads are wide, so it is comparable across retail/institutional, so not really broker specific.
One more thing i wanted to add but completely forgot. SOME of these exotics, with their wide spreads does offer one advantage: carry trade.

Take a look at some of the interest rate differentials across the world. if you got the trend correctly on a higher time frame of weekly or monthly...you can take positions that last 1 yr or more, making money and collecting the interest rate differentials from the carry trade. Carry trade isnt just AUD vs JPY. It can be done with exotics too.....

The highest ones right now are:

south africa(ZAR) : 5.5%
turkey ( TRY) : 5.75%
hungary (HUF) : 6%
china ( CNY) : 6.56%
india (INR) : 8.5%
brazil ( BRL) : 11%

ANYWAYs, here is the world interest rate list:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...t-rates-table/

my two cents.
  • #10,539
  • Nov 19, 2011 6:20am Nov 19, 2011 6:20am
exotic carry trade

A more comprehensive list of interest rates across the world: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/inte...ist-by-country

good hunting





Quoting dddd
One more thing i wanted to add but completely forgot. SOME of these exotics, with their wide spreads does offer one advantage: carry trade.

Take a look at some of the interest rate differentials across the world. if you got the trend correctly on a higher time frame of weekly or monthly...you can take positions that last 1 yr or more, making money and collecting the interest rate differentials...
  • #10,540
  • Nov 19, 2011 11:36am Nov 19, 2011 11:36am
Quoting dddd
+52 pips . hope it didnt retrace too much on you.

good work, sir.
Na,
I got out right before the move back. Still made + on that trade though
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