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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #11,941
  • Nov 25, 2011 1:59am Nov 25, 2011 1:59am
Good morning guys,

Quoting AaronWard
...A Titanic that doesn't need lifeboats?...
They had some lifeboats. CDS. But burned them as well .

Tatataaa. Big Fitz goes down.

No seriously, there still can be intervention today.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,942
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:04am Nov 25, 2011 2:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Good morning guys,



They had some lifeboats. CDS. But burned them as well .

Tatataaa. Big Fitz goes down.

No seriously, there still can be intervention today.

T
Now not only the Italian and Spanish bond values are spiraling, but the German Bunds are hurting also. Not good for bulls. Better for t-bone steaks
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,943
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:06am Nov 25, 2011 2:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
All good reasons, but 1.3240 is a bit low and according to technicals, it may be out of reach for today. I am not saying it will not reach there. It may even reach 1.31, but looking at the daily chart, it order for price to reach 1.3240, it would have to break the channel support and blow by the 88.6% fibo level.
1.3270 or closer to it would likely stand a better chance of triggering.

Attachment
Correct PT! I would be more happy If next week my 1.3430 Sell Order get hit and price come down to today's level ..but I guess that also seems too far now... considering my mini account I am only interested to BUY at 1.3240 with SL far below @ 1.30xx (..now lets BS play )
  • #11,944
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:06am Nov 25, 2011 2:06am
Quoting Alorente
Good morning. EURUSD continues to test the bottom wall of the wedge without breaking it, but without the expected bounce off it either. Divergences in the Trix and RSI continue and the RSI is still above the ascending trendline. Technically the longs still have a feasible trade, but if the wedge wall is pierced, the bears will have won the day.
It is really riding that line as if it wants to respect it but at the same time it really wants to go down hard. Touch and Go.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,945
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:09am Nov 25, 2011 2:09am
Quoting CommercialB
Mmmm... maybe I'm on thin ice here but surely the ECB is a lender of last resort to the member state Central banks....
I think that the difference is, that unlike CBs in sovereign countries, it is not mandatory for ECB. They can buy bonds, like any bank. And they can buy bonds with higher than sustainable risk, which is in fact definition of lender of last resort. But it is not their responsibility to do it, they are responsible only for controlling inflation. For this case EFSF and ESM were created.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,946
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:09am Nov 25, 2011 2:09am
Quoting rekon67
Correct PT! I would be more happy If next week my 1.3430 Sell Order get hit and price come down to today's level ..but I guess that also seems too far now... considering my mini account I am only interested to BUY at 1.3240 with SL far below @ 1.30xx (..now lets BS play )
My point is that if it breaks the channel support, then it is going further down so a buy limit would not be the best choice until you see strong support and a reversal signal. If things get bad today, we may very well see double bottom at 1.3144
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,947
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:10am Nov 25, 2011 2:10am
Quoting The Fool
will we see the ECB come in Friday and buy sov bonds and so arrest the euro's slide?
I hope so. But, well, if panic sell already triggers, I am going to enjoy.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,948
  • Edited 2:25am Nov 25, 2011 2:11am | Edited 2:25am
Well, now every chart from the one minute up to the daily is showing divergence...

EDIT: for whatever reason I am starting to feel seriously spooked.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,949
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:20am Nov 25, 2011 2:20am
Quoting AaronWard
Well, now every chart from the one minute up to and including the daily is showing divergence...

EDIT: for whatever reason I am starting to feel seriously spooked.
I can show you many examples of a failure to reverse on divergence. It is not a law of physics. No need to feel spooked. The longer it goes without correction, the sooner the correction will come. Not too long ago we had two straight weeks of bear movement without one single correction and we had strong divergence all the way through. Just scroll back through the H4 charts and you'll see.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,950
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:23am Nov 25, 2011 2:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
My point is that if it breaks the channel support, then it is going further down so a buy limit would not be the best choice until you see strong support and a reversal signal. If things get bad today, we may very well see double bottom at 1.3144
1.31xx seems very reachable by next week .. for today I just have this extreme point ... I consider if price breaks then it also has chance to retrace back quickly because of 1.31xx Support (since I am not selling from lower points a buy from historic lows could be an option .. just my personal view)

I am only following that naked chart I posted that has no price channel, Regression, fibs etc...because I am far away from my Trading Machine and only trying playing with numbers

PS: I agree with you the point is not a good entry point in Trading perspective
  • #11,951
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:24am Nov 25, 2011 2:24am
Quoting Alorente
Good morning. EURUSD continues to test the bottom wall of the wedge without breaking it, but without the expected bounce off it either. Divergences in the Trix and RSI continue and the RSI is still above the ascending trendline. Technically the longs still have a feasible trade, but if the wedge wall is pierced, the bears will have won the day.

I posted this elsewhere.....

I'm long off the 3300 level after that little pop down after LO, trailing a tight stop in case there is another pop under the 00.....someone might like to get it down there again.....

BIS bids being filled…

Written by Joe Brown
November 25, 2011 at 08:07 GMT

The 1.3300 bid was duly filled but the other at 1.3295 is so far holding with latest intel suggesting several 100′s still there after just touching the level.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,952
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:27am Nov 25, 2011 2:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
I can show you many examples of a failure to reverse on divergence. It is not a law of physics. No need to feel spooked. The longer it goes without correction, the sooner the correction will come. Not too long ago we had two straight weeks of bear movement without one single correction and we had strong divergence all the way through. Just scroll back through the H4 charts and you'll see.
Yeah, I made the same point yesterday and the day before. Divergence only means that momentum of the trend has slowed. But the underlying fact is that the trend is in place and still more likely to continue than not. Divergence is not what is spooking me. I think it is the news and the reluctance of the markets to do anything but dither.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,953
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:30am Nov 25, 2011 2:30am
Quoting AaronWard
Yeah, I made the same point yesterday and the day before. Divergence only means that momentum of the trend has slowed. But the underlying fact is that the trend is in place and still more likely to continue than not. Divergence is not what is spooking me. I think it is the news.
Yep, there is no rule that says it cannot find a whole new vigor to the downside. It's rested enough already. Let's see double bottom today. That would be fun

ADD: My apologies to those in long positions. Nothing personal.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,954
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:32am Nov 25, 2011 2:32am
Quoting Alorente
Good morning. EURUSD continues to test the bottom wall of the wedge without breaking it, but without the expected bounce off it either. Divergences in the Trix and RSI continue and the RSI is still above the ascending trendline. Technically the longs still have a feasible trade, but if the wedge wall is pierced, the bears will have won the day.
Just thought I would add that one of the classic trend reversal signs is a trend channel line overshoot....
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,955
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:42am Nov 25, 2011 2:42am
Quoting PipTrapper
Now not only the Italian and Spanish bond values are spiraling, but the German Bunds are hurting also. Not good for bulls. Better for t-bone steaks
Thats only another reason for intervention imo. But hey, we do have opened shorts, dont we?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,956
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:50am Nov 25, 2011 2:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
I can show you many examples of a failure to reverse on divergence. It is not a law of physics. No need to feel spooked. The longer it goes without correction, the sooner the correction will come. Not too long ago we had two straight weeks of bear movement without one single correction and we had strong divergence all the way through. Just scroll back through the H4 charts and you'll see.
That is true PT, but when divergences are showing on several time frames including the Daily and you have a wedge formation that has not been violated and many other factors all lining up too numerous to mention here, the PROBABILITY is very high that a reversal will occur. Of course, anything can happen, but TA is a study of probabilities...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,957
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:53am Nov 25, 2011 2:53am
Quoting Alorente
That is true PT, but when divergences are showing on several time frames including the Daily and you have a wedge formation that has not been violated and many other factors all lining up too numerous to mention here, the PROBABILITY is very high that a reversal will occur. Of course, anything can happen, but TA is a study of probabilities...
Yes I fully agree with you that the probabilities of a reversal under current conditions are very high. However, these are not normal circumstances. I am sure we will get a correction but the timing is unknown and also where will the correction start? Here, or 300 pips lower?

Add: Remember we also have an Italian bond auction today and currently Italian 10Y bonds are trading on the secondary market at well over 7%, plus the German Bund is over 2%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,958
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:55am Nov 25, 2011 2:55am
Daily Break downside - now the pressure is slow and real strong even not fast but it still break - however am flat
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #11,959
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:59am Nov 25, 2011 2:59am
A reversal here is very very unlikely, the word still remains to sell on rallies ......

Europeans are too slow when it comes to making big decisions, so for the next few weeks there is none, keep sliding .........

Christmas however, will or might help ............
  • #11,960
  • Nov 25, 2011 2:59am Nov 25, 2011 2:59am
Quoting FXMindset
Daily Break downside - now the pressure is slow and real strong even not fast but it still break - however am flat
seems my BUY ORDER will get executed in some time later today ... but lets see how 1.31xx reacts...
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