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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #11,681
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:27am Nov 24, 2011 2:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have an EA that works on any time frame and any major pair (not crosses) which I created a couple of years ago. I back tested it all the way from 2005 and it worked amazingly well on H1 and lower time frames (H4 took very few trades but it still worked)
The problem is that once serious volatility hit the markets in 2008, it experienced losses in some months and resulted in a large loss in 2008, small loss in 2009, and break even in 2010. I have not tested it in 2011 as I have pretty much given up on EAs at this point. The effort I put into all...
Did your system trade also on ranging periods in addition to trending ones? If not, how did you filter those out?
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,682
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:28am Nov 24, 2011 2:28am
GM - I hope that those big balled bulls didnt get shaken out over night....

I'm now waiting to see if the earlier support at the Weekly S 1 level holds - I guess the 9am GMT data from Germany will decide that...

A rally with a similar velocity to yesterdays fall would put price into the resistance areas shown by late morning onwards......TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,683
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:30am Nov 24, 2011 2:30am
Quoting conexer
nyfx718,

Seems like everyone here is with the longs with Eur/Usd. Better i should analyze more before deciding.
I dont see any long consensus here. I am bearish as hell and so is PT. Just waiting to reload around 361.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,684
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:33am Nov 24, 2011 2:33am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I dont see any long consensus here. I am bearish as hell and so is PT. Just waiting to reload around 361.
I am bearish too. I expect EUR under 1.20 by early 2012 and parity during 2012, but I love counter trend rallies. They are exciting and can be very explosive and profitable. You can also lose your shirt with them if your timing is off. I guess thatīs what makes them exciting...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,685
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:34am Nov 24, 2011 2:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
....
I am expecting a nice retrace today to at least 1.3440/50 area....
GZ to pips man.

Yea, this area will be very important indeed. I dont plan to short heavy in there, but if bulls show any sign of weakness I may consider it.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,686
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:34am Nov 24, 2011 2:34am
Quoting AaronWard
But probably it gave you a very good intuitive understanding of markets which is now making you millions.

Looking at the EUR/USD you will see the single best trading strategy would be to buy on every pull back with medium leverage, holding all positions until 2008. You probably would have made money on the swap as well. So much for hindsight.

What was the underlying system for your (now failed) universal EA?
Well I must admit that prior to 2008 it was very hard to lose on the E/U pair. Like you said, all one had to do was buy on major pullbacks on the H4 chart and set SL at BE once it went 100 pips in profit and then let them all ride. That was pretty well my strategy at the time and is what made it possible for me to transition into full time trading.

As for the EA, the underlying system was based on zigzag (swing hi/lo) and fib levels. It had a trend determination routine that examined the swings (based on fib levels) to identify divergences. However it was also configurable to execute buys and sells in ranging markets (sell the high / buy the low). Pretty basic really. It didn't use any oscillators or moving averages. Just swings.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,687
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:38am Nov 24, 2011 2:38am
Quoting Alorente
Good Morning. We are headed higher today...!
Hi Alorente,

I know you are much more experienced trader than me, but I have stated several times, that I dont consider that upper trendline valid, because spike at Nov 11 was possible only because US markets were closed. But you know the story with selffulfilling technical indicators. I am pretty sure lots of traders have drawn simmilar wedge. Nevertheless, I consider this trendline very weak.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,688
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:39am Nov 24, 2011 2:39am
Quoting Alorente
I agree with you, Aaron. And yet again, the 3 straight divergences on the Trix and the ascending trendline on the bottoms of the RSI is plenty of evidence that the floor is solid. I would say the likelihood of a double bottom would be somewhere around 60/40. If it happens, it will be in the next 4 to 6 hours.
You are the classic aggressive trader while PT is the classic conservative trader. You will make more winning trades... and more losing trades that PT. My style is more like Tom's... classic lunatic...

It is important to note that we don't have a floor. We have a weak but persistent momentum pattern. But that is probably enough for an agressive trader.

BTW -- I am pretty much on the same side... I closed most of my shorts at 1.333. I am hoping for 1.3700 so I can take out my big hammer.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,689
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:40am Nov 24, 2011 2:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
Even if the Euro keeps falling, at some point it will go back up for unfinished business at 1.3430

ADD: The correct word is "Should", not "Will" Sorry
Unless the EUR breaks up, then at some point in the future it will go for 1.343 - noone can keep up with Fed's printing press

But I think even demo accounts aren't big enough to bet for making historical highs
  • #11,690
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:42am Nov 24, 2011 2:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
GZ to pips man.

Yea, this area will be very important indeed. I dont plan to short heavy in there, but if bulls show any sign of weakness I may consider it.

T
Guys, world is close to an end
  • #11,691
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:43am Nov 24, 2011 2:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
... The effort I put into all these EAs that I created would have made me millions if I spent the time trading manually LOL
. I am sometimes experiencing simmilar issue. I am writing macros in excel for eight hours just to count some stupid thing I would count in ten minutes using calculator. But it is just too nice to click on the button in excel and watch the results.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,692
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:43am Nov 24, 2011 2:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi Alorente,

I know you are much more experienced trader than me, but I have stated several times, that I dont consider that upper trendline valid, because spike at Nov 11 was possible only because US markets were closed. But you know the story with selffulfilling technical indicators. I am pretty sure lots of traders have drawn simmilar wedge. Nevertheless, I consider this trendline very weak.

T.
I feel it is solid. It has three highs forming it and, most importantly, it follows the path of the 55 EMA. In most descending wedges, the top wall coincides pretty much with the 55 EMA.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,693
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:49am Nov 24, 2011 2:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well I must admit that prior to 2008 it was very hard to lose on the E/U pair. Like you said, all one had to do was buy on major pullbacks on the H4 chart and set SL at BE once it went 100 pips in profit and then let them all ride. That was pretty well my strategy at the time and is what made it possible for me to transition into full time trading.

As for the EA, the underlying system was based on zigzag (swing hi/lo) and fib levels. It had a trend determination routine that examined the swings (based on fib levels) to identify divergences....
This sounds pretty close to what I am training myself to do technically. It seems to me that the single most important building block and the one with the greatest predictive power is the two legged swing. Ye olde zigzag. I'm a bit more fancy though because I use S/R -- horizontal lines, diagonal lines and MAs. I also judge market condition as trending/not trending volatile/not volatile. Yesterday was a trending, not volatile day.

I don't use fib levels except as another horizontal line to watch for. If the market is watching that particular line, PA on the 5 min will make it plenty clear.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,694
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:50am Nov 24, 2011 2:50am
Quoting AaronWard
You are the classic aggressive trader while PT is the classic conservative trader. You will make more winning trades... and more losing trades that PT. My style is more like Tom's... classic lunatic...
You see, there is some coziness in beeing lunatic. Noone can disturb you since you live in your own world. You are the greatest man on earth and lord of the beeing since you judge whole world according to your own values and goals, which are good ofc. Hmmm, it is cozy in my mind.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,695
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:57am Nov 24, 2011 2:57am
Quoting Alorente
I feel it is solid...
That seems very possible you feel solid of your researches after 20 years of trading.

And I hope you are right. Anyway my goal of ,361 is in the middle of your ,35-,37 target, so I hope you will be right.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,696
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:58am Nov 24, 2011 2:58am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
You see, there is some coziness in beeing lunatic. Noone can disturb you since you live in your own world. You are the greatest man on earth and lord of the beeing since you judge whole world according to your own values and goals, which are good ofc. Hmmm, it is cozy in my mind.

T.
Hmmm...maybe we are different. You are the megalomaniac -- cozy and insulated in his own mind. I am the bipolar paranoid. Not as safe, but a whole lot more exciting. Never a boring day on my watch (but quite a few bad ones).
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,697
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:03am Nov 24, 2011 3:03am
I have a suggestion: Why not create among us a gauge that we can use in this thread that would quickly objectively inform both newbies and more experienced traders how each of us feel about EURUSD at any particular moment in time?

For example, a range of -5 to +5. 0 would be a neutral or ranging market. -5 extreme bearishness and +5 extreme bullishness.

It would be nice to know that for example, PT is -5, Aaron -3, etc

Maybe it would help some to stay out of bad trades.

We could base the number on the H4 or the Daily time frame. Personally I would prefer the H4.

Let me know what you think. Maybe it would have value or maybe not...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,698
  • Edited 3:16am Nov 24, 2011 3:05am | Edited 3:16am
Quoting Alorente
I have a suggestion: Why not create among us a gauge that we can use in this thread that would quickly objectively inform both newbies and more experienced traders how each of us feel about EURUSD at any particular moment in time?

For example, a range of -5 to +5. 0 would be a neutral or ranging market. -5 extreme bearishness and +5 extreme bullishness.

It would be nice to know that for example, PT is -5, Aaron -3, etc

Maybe it would help some to stay out of bad trades.

We could base the number on the H4 or the Daily time frame. Personally I...
oh okay nice alorente, it would be nice if we had a meter on top or signature, because of the sentiment tool Ff came up wiht. anyways im +3. stocks are going to have a nice move up today, a reversal up or at least a 100+ point move based on the retrograde. US session i expect lots of buying back.

anyways its nice to see positive EUR data, more confidence for my longs on the dow. am currently 70+
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #11,699
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:05am Nov 24, 2011 3:05am
Quoting AaronWard
I'm a bit more fancy though because I use S/R -- horizontal lines, diagonal lines and MAs. I also judge market condition as trending/not trending volatile/not volatile. Yesterday was a trending, not volatile day.

I don't use fib levels except as another horizontal line to watch for. If the market is watching that particular line, PA on the 5 min will make it plenty clear.
Yes and these (bolded words) are all things that a trader has to see and interpret. An EA can not do that because it cannot "see" them. Also it can only calculate patterns with mediocre accuracy. Therein is the flaw. I have seen many supposedly excellent pattern recognition indicators that get it wrong more often than not. Now if the MQL4 language was more powerful, that would be a different story. It would certainly be possible to get accurate pattern recognition working with a more sophisticated programming language on a very powerful computer.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,700
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:09am Nov 24, 2011 3:09am
Quoting bumapatria
oh okay nice alorente, it would be nice if we had a meter on top or signature, because of the sentiment tool Ff came up wiht. anyways im +3
Yes. The number next to the name or signature would be ideal. I am also +3 on the H4 right now. If RSI breaks the descending trendline I will move to +4.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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