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  • #11,661
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:08pm Nov 23, 2011 9:08pm
Quoting AaronWard
not spreads. An additional fee charged by brokers for lending you money for more than one day. It is included in the overnight rate or the swap. They should post their rates on their website.
I dont think my broker has posted it.... Will have a check with him ...
  • #11,662
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:12pm Nov 23, 2011 9:12pm
Quoting FX Tsunami
I dont think my broker has posted it.... Will have a check with him ...
They post the swap, not their fees. Swap differs from broker to broker and the difference is the fee charged.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,663
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:26pm Nov 23, 2011 9:26pm
Quoting FX Tsunami
Hi frnds... Good morning all,

I've got a doubt... I went long in EURUSD @ 1.3349 and i find swap being reduced from my profit.... I believe EUR has got higher interest rate, and since i'm holding EUR i should gain the swap if i'm correct...

Is there any other factor influencing swaps???
Being long the Euro you should have been credited at the time of the swap. In fact since this was the Wednesday swap, you should have gotten triple. The swap is based on the interest rates of the various currencies. The 'fee' that AW mentioned is not charged by most brokers. Most brokers get their fee through the spread, although some do charge a commission.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #11,664
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:33pm Nov 23, 2011 9:33pm
Quoting spzd
Being long the Euro you should have been credited at the time of the swap. In fact since this was the Wednesday swap, you should have gotten triple. The swap is based on the interest rates of the various currencies. The 'fee' that AW mentioned is not charged by most brokers. Most brokers get their fee through the spread, although some do charge a commission.
e

I would say about 80-90% of brokers charge a fee. However, it is hidden in the swap and they only mention it in the fine print.

But you are quite right, even after being charged the hidden fee in the swap, he should have received money for swap, not been charged it, especially on a Wednesday.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,665
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:41pm Nov 23, 2011 9:41pm
Quoting spzd
Being long the Euro you should have been credited at the time of the swap. In fact since this was the Wednesday swap, you should have gotten triple. The swap is based on the interest rates of the various currencies. The 'fee' that AW mentioned is not charged by most brokers. Most brokers get their fee through the spread, although some do charge a commission.
That is what i was wondering about... Will ask those details with the broker... It is better to ask him... may be hidden as AW told...
  • #11,666
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:51pm Nov 23, 2011 9:51pm
Quoting FX Tsunami
That is what i was wondering about... Will ask those details with the broker... It is better to ask him... may be hidden as AW told...
You may have to look pretty closely... and compare with what other brokers offer.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,667
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:03pm Nov 23, 2011 11:03pm
30 mins to mercury retrograde. i believe its already taking effect, dow is risng already

has most effect in stocks and indicates reversals, all stocks down, we gonna see possible upmove

dow already rising.

go bulls!
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #11,668
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:44pm Nov 23, 2011 11:44pm
Quoting AaronWard
You may have to look pretty closely... and compare with what other brokers offer.
Yup !!
  • #11,669
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:53pm Nov 23, 2011 11:53pm
As you can see from the chart we have a beautiful 4 bump divergence pattern on the MACD. However, if you look at the lows, you can see a very large initial fall followed by 3 relatively small swings low. A small swing low following a large swing low is what creates divergence. So if you can recognize this simple PA action, you don't need to look at the MacD to find divergence because PA already tells you it exists.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,670
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:55pm Nov 23, 2011 11:55pm
Covered two of my shorts this morning

E/U 1.34851 covered at 1.33915 for +93.6 pips
E/J 104.094 covered at 103.240 for +85.4 pips

Booked profit: +179 pips

Still holding two other shorts
1. E/U @ 1.37676
2. E/U @ 1.37662

I am expecting a nice retrace today to at least 1.3440/50 area
Being a US holiday with US banks closed and the fact that most traders are expecting a significant retrace such as the ones we got on the last two US bank holidays, it is possible that the move up could take us to the 1.36xx zone but I am not banking on it. Instead I am taking a wait and see approach. As you probably all know by now, I never trade against the trend and market sentiment. Therefore I am now just waiting for the next short opportunity to add to my existing positions. Ultimately I will be looking for a move lower below the 1.3 handle.

My charts are below.

H1 Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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H4 Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,671
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:59pm Nov 23, 2011 11:59pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Covered two of my shorts this morning

E/U 1.34851 covered at 1.33915 for +93.6 pips
E/J 104.094 covered at 103.240 for +85.4 pips

Booked profit: +179 pips

Still holding two other shorts
1. E/U @ 1.37676
2. E/U @ 1.37662

I am expecting a nice retrace today to at least 1.3440/50 area
Being a US holiday with US banks closed and the fact that most traders are expecting a significant retrace such as the ones we got on the last two US bank holidays, it is possible that the move up could take us to the 1.36xx zone but I am not banking on it. Instead...
Morning PT. I closed out a few shorts myself... everything below 1.370. I have this theory that while sometimes the bulls and bears fight, at other times they work together. If price falls too fast it is bad for everybody. The bulls need more time to build stronger positions at a higher point while the bears need to get out of their losing positions at a better price.

Back to our discussion of yesterday on EAs and systems. Have you ever seen a universal system? By that I mean it works on all time frames AND all crosses? Or even a system that works on all time frames for one cross OR works on all crosses for one time frame?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,672
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:00am Nov 24, 2011 12:00am
Good Morning. We are headed higher today. The question to ask is:

Are we bouncing to the top wall of the wedge at 1.35 or through it to 1.37?

My Proprietary indicator is telling me that EURUSD is going much higher than we think, but weŽll have to wait and see.

The RSI will get to the descending trendline earlier than price will get to the top wall of the wedge, so that will serve us as a preview. A break in the RSI trendline will, most likely signal a break of the wedge wall.

Good luck!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,673
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:04am Nov 24, 2011 12:04am
Quoting Alorente
Good Morning. We are headed higher today. The question to ask is:

Are we bouncing to the top wall of the wedge at 1.35 or through it to 1.37?

My Proprietary indicator is telling me that EURUSD is going much higher than we think, but weŽll have to wait and see.

The RSI will get to the descending trendline earlier than price will get to the top wall of the wedge, so that will serve us as a preview. A break in the RSI trendline will, most likely signal a break of the wedge wall.

Good luck!!
Good morning alorente. Where ever it goes (1.35 or 1.37) is fine with me. Actually the higher the better as it gives me more pips from there to 1.29
Trade safe my friend
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,674
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:08am Nov 24, 2011 12:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning alorente. Where ever it goes (1.35 or 1.37) is fine with me. Actually the higher the better as it gives me more pips from there to 1.29
Trade safe my friend
I failed to mention that it is still very possible that we get a quick last shakeout to the lows, maybe even making a new low, before heading higher. In fact, this is likely to happen.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,675
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:13am Nov 24, 2011 12:13am
Quoting Alorente
I failed to mention that it is still very possible that we get a quick last shakeout to the lows, maybe even making a new low, before heading higher. In fact, this is likely to happen.
Likely even. Bears need to be convinced that 1.315 is a real bottom and they can only be convinced by a double bottom. And of course the chance exists that it will crash through 1.315. Until I see the double bottom, I will find it hard to go long. And even then, I won't believe it unless I see some pretty buoyant price action.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,676
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:17am Nov 24, 2011 12:17am
Quoting AaronWard
Back to our discussion of yesterday on EAs and systems. Have you ever seen a universal system? By that I mean it works on all time frames AND all crosses? Or even a system that works on all time frames for one cross OR works on all crosses for one time frame?
I have an EA that works on any time frame and any major pair (not crosses) which I created a couple of years ago. I back tested it all the way from 2005 and it worked amazingly well on H1 and lower time frames (H4 took very few trades but it still worked)
The problem is that once serious volatility hit the markets in 2008, it experienced losses in some months and resulted in a large loss in 2008, small loss in 2009, and break even in 2010. I have not tested it in 2011 as I have pretty much given up on EAs at this point. The effort I put into all these EAs that I created would have made me millions if I spent the time trading manually LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,677
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:19am Nov 24, 2011 12:19am
Quoting AaronWard
Likely even. Bears need to be convinced that 1.315 is a real bottom and they can only be convinced by a double bottom. And of course the chance exists that it will crash through 1.315. Until I see the double bottom, I will find it hard to go long. And even then, I won't believe it unless I see some pretty buoyant price action.
I agree with you, Aaron. And yet again, the 3 straight divergences on the Trix and the ascending trendline on the bottoms of the RSI is plenty of evidence that the floor is solid. I would say the likelihood of a double bottom would be somewhere around 60/40. If it happens, it will be in the next 4 to 6 hours.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,678
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:20am Nov 24, 2011 12:20am
Good morning all,


Quoting Pbh
Where's your TP around 1.10 zone
Partial TP is still at ,332. And rest is opened. I dont have any clue how low can it fall right now. Well, once we break 1,3 I will make an attempt to count it precisely from relative strenght of waves during current cycle, do some EW counting, Fibos and stuff. But right now I am just aiming for something like 1,25.

Good luck today,

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,679
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:24am Nov 24, 2011 12:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have an EA that works on any time frame and any major pair (not crosses) which I created a couple of years ago. I back tested it all the way from 2005 and it worked amazingly well on H1 and lower time frames (H4 took very few trades but it still worked)
The problem is that once serious volatility hit the markets in 2008, it experienced losses in some months and resulted in a large loss in 2008, small loss in 2009, and break even in 2010. I have not tested it in 2011 as I have pretty much given up on EAs at this point. The effort I put into all...
But probably it gave you a very good intuitive understanding of markets which is now making you millions.

Looking at the EUR/USD you will see the single best trading strategy would be to buy on every pull back with medium leverage, holding all positions until 2008. You probably would have made money on the swap as well. So much for hindsight.

What was the underlying system for your (now failed) universal EA?

EDIT: My brief experiments with EAs taught me a lot about systems and mathematical models for forex. It also taught me that every system will have a key Achilles and mathematical models of forex are (very) flawed. It is not necessarily a flaw exactly... only a market condition for which it will lose money instead of making money. I also figured out that unless I could make good entries manually there was no way I was going to be able to program a computer to do it for me.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,680
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:26am Nov 24, 2011 12:26am
Quoting Alorente
I agree with you, Aaron. And yet again, the 3 straight divergences on the Trix and the ascending trendline on the bottoms of the RSI is plenty of evidence that the floor is solid. I would say the likelihood of a double bottom would be somewhere around 60/40. If it happens, it will be in the next 4 to 6 hours.
The German ifo business climate will be released at 9am GMT
That may set the tone for the European session.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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