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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #11,641
  • Nov 23, 2011 4:46pm Nov 23, 2011 4:46pm
Quoting CommercialB
Thanks Fool,
yw. COT Report is old news if you're a daytrader. Things change too fast these days...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,642
  • Nov 23, 2011 5:21pm Nov 23, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting AaronWard
A good strategy is to open two positions at a point like this. Then, when you get about 20 pips, close one and set the SL on the other to zero. usually it is also best to wait for confirmation with a reversal signal of some sort such as a pin bar or tweezer bars.
Oh ya... I would try that....
  • #11,643
  • Nov 23, 2011 5:58pm Nov 23, 2011 5:58pm
I've read a number of posts where the poster thinks price will retrace today. Now I'm not saying it won't, but if you look at past history for this day most moves were with the trend. Only twice since the Euro has started trading has price moved against the trend and both times was because trend was changing.

edit: Just don't blindly take a long without verification.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #11,644
  • Nov 23, 2011 6:12pm Nov 23, 2011 6:12pm
Actually the best thing to do right now is doing nothing. Volatility is so low, E/U moves slower than a dead turtle. I started trading early roo sesion and haven't netted a single pip, I'm tempted to take the day off.

Quoting spzd
I've read a number of posts where the poster thinks price will retrace today. Now I'm not saying it won't, but if you look at past history for this day most moves were with the trend. Only twice since the Euro has started trading has price moved against the trend and both times was because trend was changing.

edit: Just don't blindly take a long without verification.
  • #11,645
  • Nov 23, 2011 6:44pm Nov 23, 2011 6:44pm
Quoting spzd
I've read a number of posts where the poster thinks price will retrace today. Now I'm not saying it won't, but if you look at past history for this day most moves were with the trend. Only twice since the Euro has started trading has price moved against the trend and both times was because trend was changing.

edit: Just don't blindly take a long without verification.
In my opinion it wasn't.. and that happened because the ECB is intervening by buying bonds
  • #11,646
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:06pm Nov 23, 2011 7:06pm
Awesome thread!! Kind of a newbie here but just wondering if this would be a good short term trade or a good time to jump on the trend as i see it ripping through all support zones. This is probably a more aggressive trade.

-Daily resistance from Feb 14 (See Daily Chart)

-1 hour shows good Fibs from the last two swing highs of 23% & 38% for aggressive entry. (See 1 hr Chart)

Would like to see a more conservative analysis for entry with the trend if anyone would care to elaborate.

Thanks in advance
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  • #11,647
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:16pm Nov 23, 2011 7:16pm
Long since @ 1.3325 - SL : 1.3315 Risk 1% TP : Still Open
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #11,648
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:19pm Nov 23, 2011 7:19pm
Quoting FXMindset
Long since @ 1.3325 - SL : 1.3315 Risk 1% TP : Still Open
i'm long too, entry not quite as good but let's see if this wedge can break upwards for some mucho pipsos
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #11,649
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:22pm Nov 23, 2011 7:22pm
Hi frnds... Good morning all,

I've got a doubt... I went long in EURUSD @ 1.3349 and i find swap being reduced from my profit.... I believe EUR has got higher interest rate, and since i'm holding EUR i should gain the swap if i'm correct...

Is there any other factor influencing swaps???
  • #11,650
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:33pm Nov 23, 2011 7:33pm
Quoting RamsesII
i'm long too, entry not quite as good but let's see if this wedge can break upwards for some mucho pipsos
Glad that have master on long together
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #11,651
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:37pm Nov 23, 2011 7:37pm
Who else is long? I took the long because everything was showing oversold conditions and as PT and others pointed out, we are in an environment right now where ppl keep looking for any reason, even lame ones, to push the euro higher and go long. With the US markets being fairly quiet the next two days, that opportunity might be there since US traders and banks won't be around really to equalize things. Just my thoughts and opinions, but this is what we saw on Veteran's day, a US bank holiday, and the price overshot the resistance level by over 100 pips. It did come back down but that was an amazing opportunity there.

I'd be curious to know what those continuation trends were those previous thanksgivings? Were they the long direction or the short direction? And the two reversals, did they reverse long or reverse short?

Quoting spzd
I've read a number of posts where the poster thinks price will retrace today. Now I'm not saying it won't, but if you look at past history for this day most moves were with the trend. Only twice since the Euro has started trading has price moved against the trend and both times was because trend was changing.

edit: Just don't blindly take a long without verification.
  • #11,652
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:39pm Nov 23, 2011 7:39pm
im long dow up +25
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #11,653
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:40pm Nov 23, 2011 7:40pm
darn u beat me by 2 pips lol

Quoting FXMindset
Long since @ 1.3325 - SL : 1.3315 Risk 1% TP : Still Open
  • #11,654
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:42pm Nov 23, 2011 7:42pm
Conexer, if you are looking to go short, I think you should wait for a retrace to get a better entry. Use an oscillator that shows overbought or oversold conditions to figure out a good spot, I use stochastics and right now all readings were in oversold conditions, I personally wouldn't short until the 1 hour chart goes overbought condition. That's how I do anyway. Hope this helps. Best wishes.

Quoting conexer
Awesome thread!! Kind of a newbie here but just wondering if this would be a good short term trade or a good time to jump on the trend as i see it ripping through all support zones. This is probably a more aggressive trade.

-Daily resistance from Feb 14 (See Daily Chart)

-1 hour shows good Fibs from the last two swing highs of 23% & 38% for aggressive entry. (See 1 hr Chart)

Would like to see a more conservative analysis for entry with the trend if anyone would care to elaborate.

Thanks in advance
  • #11,655
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:03pm Nov 23, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting Pbh
In my opinion it wasn't.. and that happened because the ECB is intervening by buying bonds
I should have been more specific. The posters and I were referring to the US Thanksgiving holiday and that it might result in a decent retrace. And I reiterate, only twice since the Euro has been trading has price retraced on Thanksgiving and both times were right around a trend change.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #11,656
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:46pm Nov 23, 2011 8:46pm
Quoting FX Tsunami
Hi frnds... Good morning all,

I've got a doubt... I went long in EURUSD @ 1.3349 and i find swap being reduced from my profit.... I believe EUR has got higher interest rate, and since i'm holding EUR i should gain the swap if i'm correct...

Is there any other factor influencing swaps???
Yes. There are broker fees.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,657
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:50pm Nov 23, 2011 8:50pm
Quoting nyfx718
Conexer, if you are looking to go short, I think you should wait for a retrace to get a better entry. Use an oscillator that shows overbought or oversold conditions to figure out a good spot, I use stochastics and right now all readings were in oversold conditions, I personally wouldn't short until the 1 hour chart goes overbought condition. That's how I do anyway. Hope this helps. Best wishes.
nyfx718,

Seems like everyone here is with the longs with Eur/Usd. Better i should analyze more before deciding.
  • #11,658
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:55pm Nov 23, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting the redlion
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/financial_lof.htm

hard to post it here
but this is the Commitment of Traders report
Post it as an image next time. That is the only way to get the formatting right.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,659
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:55pm Nov 23, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting AaronWard
Yes. There are broker fees.
So, spreads affect swaps???

How to identify before taking a position???
  • #11,660
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:01pm Nov 23, 2011 9:01pm
Quoting FX Tsunami
So, spreads affect swaps???

How to identify before taking a position???
not spreads. An additional fee charged by brokers for lending you money for more than one day. It is included in the overnight rate or the swap. They should post their rates on their website.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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