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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #11,601
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:40am Nov 23, 2011 11:40am
Quoting michaelnew
anybody sees any fibonacci whatsoever in this waterfall? If so, I would be grateful to have see some swing high / low you use
How about PTs 3286?

Quoting PipTrapper
1.3286 here we come

Attachment
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,602
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:42am Nov 23, 2011 11:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
How about PTs 3286?
ya think?
  • #11,603
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:45am Nov 23, 2011 11:45am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
How about PTs 3286?
No. We need to rally from here. There should be another test of the bottom before it rises. For the wedge long theory to work the breakout should come by Friday.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,604
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:46am Nov 23, 2011 11:46am
Quoting michaelnew
ya think?
No, I think my TP +1 is a wall, so we dont get below ,332 .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,605
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:47am Nov 23, 2011 11:47am
Quoting Alorente
No. We need to rally from here. There should be another test of the bottom before it rises.
How high do you see the rally?
  • #11,606
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:50am Nov 23, 2011 11:50am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
No, I think my TP +1 is a wall, so we dont get below ,332 .
I actually tried one with 1.332 swing low, I'm watching it as we speak, let's see if it holds. Swing high 1.3480.
  • #11,607
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:53am Nov 23, 2011 11:53am
Quoting michaelnew
anybody sees any fibonacci whatsoever in this waterfall? If so, I would be grateful to have see some swing high / low you use
Take Your pick

H1 1.3301

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 33 KB


H4 1.3286

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h4.gif Size: 36 KB


D1 1.3270

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-d1.gif Size: 36 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,608
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:56am Nov 23, 2011 11:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
Take Your pick
wow, thanks. There are a lot of indicators there
  • #11,609
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:06pm Nov 23, 2011 12:06pm
i posted in the EURUSD thread i thought i was posting here lol
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #11,610
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:14pm Nov 23, 2011 12:14pm
Quoting the redlion
i posted in the EURUSD thread i thought i was posting here lol
I went to read your posts in EURUSD thread. Yep you got it right.
I think correction will start tomorrow. 1.36 is feasible. 1.38 is a bit out there. 1.40 is extreme. But that call of 1.50 is out of this world.

ADD: This time it will definitely be a correction and not a reversal like it was feared last time. Last time the endgame was not in play yet. This time it is. Euro will be below 1.30 before year end and it may go below 1.20 sometime in Q1 2012
Credit has already frozen up in Europe and it will take a while to unwind that damage.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,611
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:19pm Nov 23, 2011 12:19pm
Looks like we're getting some short covering before close on SP500
That should push Euro up a bit

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sp500-h4.gif Size: 26 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,612
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:23pm Nov 23, 2011 12:23pm
Quoting michaelnew
wow, thanks. There are a lot of indicators there
Yep. They all mean something when they correlate, but individually they don't mean much.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,613
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:28pm Nov 23, 2011 12:28pm
A $10 Trillion Asteroid Is Heading Toward The Eurozone

By Jeff Harding, on November 23rd, 2011
I urge you to follow the euro crisis today and see how the marketplace deals with what is essentially a failed system. With the sovereign bond markets now in crisis mode as Germany stumbles at the auction block, the market is sending a clear signal that we are in crisis mode. As readers of the Daily Capitalist know, we have been discussing the unsolvable nature of the crisis and the European Monetary Union for a long time. The marketplace never lies; it may not always be right, but it is the most accurate measure of what money thinks.

So now, with the mighty Germans failing to sell all of its bonds in today’s auction (€3.644 billion—$4.92 billion—of the €6 billion in 10-year bunds on auction for an average yield of 1.98%), money is flowing out of Europe seeking the safety of our leaky boat, and European sovereign yields are climbing. read more and watch a video clip....
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,614
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:32pm Nov 23, 2011 12:32pm
Compare 10 Year Government Bonds

Before (NY Open)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: govbonds.jpg Size: 73 KB


After (Now)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: govbonds2.jpg Size: 77 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,615
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:38pm Nov 23, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting michaelnew
How high do you see the rally?
If it breaks the wedge, the minimum would be 1.40 in theory, which is the width of the wedge at its widest point added to the point of the breakout. I would sell probably at the 200SMA around 1.37
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,616
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:40pm Nov 23, 2011 12:40pm
Probably you will edit first page with links to German bond yields. That would be great.
  • #11,617
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:45pm Nov 23, 2011 12:45pm
Ok my TP is 332. Low is 3319,6 + 1,5 spread = 3321,1. Missed by 1,1 pip. But I dont mind, I will close it next week, or week after, somwhere in the darkness below 1,3.

And next time, please PA, Dont be cruel.

Inserted Video
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,618
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:49pm Nov 23, 2011 12:49pm
Back from lunch, 2 longs still open for retrace on AUDUSD + 40 pips net, Sell limits set at several levels up to 1.3520 for retrace. Aussie longs will be released after Euro retrace turns back. Don't you just love high maintenance trades around holidays? Its like dancing with the ugly chick at homecoming!
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Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_11-23.png Size: 73 KB
  • #11,619
  • Edited 1:02pm Nov 23, 2011 12:51pm | Edited 1:02pm
Regarding correction. I am meddling it for quite some time. I am expecting intervention tomorrow, possibly to 361, maybe to 3666 -3689 zone. But not any further. My shorts are waiting at 361. Whole battalion of em waiting there.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,620
  • Nov 23, 2011 1:01pm Nov 23, 2011 1:01pm
Quoting Alorente
If it breaks the wedge, the minimum would be 1.40 in theory, which is the width of the wedge at its widest point added to the point of the breakout. I would sell probably at the 200SMA around 1.37
thanks
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