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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #11,441
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:14am Nov 23, 2011 7:14am
Quoting Gofer Pips
RESPECTFULLY,

Remember, there are many ways to skin a cat.

STRICTLY technical trades DO serve well when scalping a market.

As you just said, the market determines whether your strategy is correct or not. I think it is wonderful you are in cash, however, I have increased my account by 10% this month alone, and make choices to get in or get out based on my analysis, not on anything someone else decides is right for them or feel is right for me.

I traded back in 2008, and a bastard it was, but proper money management, sound fundamental and...
First rate post Gofer.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,442
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:17am Nov 23, 2011 7:17am
Quoting FXMindset
Chart Is The Best
That would be technical bro!
  • #11,443
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:18am Nov 23, 2011 7:18am
This is what I see in my M30 charts, so this is what I trade, a bullish harmonic pattern. If it will behave correctly, the first level should be 1.3446 and the second may go as high as 1.355. But it may take up to 24 hours, again, IF this is really a harmonic bullish pattern and IF the market will react accordingly.

I will add into the mix the low volume on Friday (hence, it will be easier for any politically driven markets mood to lessen the pressure on Europe, and I'm talking like some other SciFi news that all is well and the IMF from Mars will save us all), and also the fact that Moon is in the decreasing movement right now, so the bear power diminished.

As always, market will tell. I have longs opened at 1.3890, 1.3466 and 1.3512.
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  • #11,444
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:21am Nov 23, 2011 7:21am
CNBC: Liquidity run on Euro has begun.
Collapse less than 3 months away

HMMMM, could eventually set up a long in the Deutchemark!
  • #11,445
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:26am Nov 23, 2011 7:26am
Quoting Alorente
Doubled my long position at 3380. The indicators are still flashing divergences. This last H4 bar may be a final shakeout. I may be wrong but thatīs what I continue to see.
Didn't you say you had a stop at 3390 ?

Did you cancel the stop and added to you existing long positions ?
  • #11,446
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:29am Nov 23, 2011 7:29am
Quoting Alorente
The attached chart shows repeated divergences of the Trix in relation to price (Marked by the red circles). This is a major indication of an approaching important trend change.

This signals a break of the top wall of the wedge and a return to the 200 SMA (Blue Line), in the next few days.

I might be wrong here but all i see in that chart is lower lows coupled with lower highs, weak RSI movement.
  • #11,447
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:34am Nov 23, 2011 7:34am
US econ data so far not bad.
Now we see how NY reacts after the bell.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,448
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:36am Nov 23, 2011 7:36am
Quoting lumesh
I might be wrong here but all i see in that chart is lower lows coupled with lower highs, weak RSI movement.
Well I agree there is bullish divergence. It is clearly shown on my charts as well.
However, the question is, how much of a bullish correction are we going to get.

ADD: A sideways move from here on will negate the divergence indicator.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,449
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:38am Nov 23, 2011 7:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well I agree there is bullish divergence. It is clearly shown on my charts as well.
However, the question is, how much of a bullish correction are we going to get.

ADD: A sideways move from here on will negate the divergence indicator.
Doesn't matter how much, as long as we get, longs get green pips
  • #11,450
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:40am Nov 23, 2011 7:40am
Quoting michaelnew
This is what I see in my M30 charts, so this is what I trade, a bullish harmonic pattern. If it will behave correctly, the first level should be 1.3446 and the second may go as high as 1.355. But it may take up to 24 hours, again, IF this is really a harmonic bullish pattern and IF the market will react accordingly.

I will add into the mix the low volume on Friday (hence, it will be easier for any politically driven markets mood to lessen the pressure on Europe, and I'm talking like some other SciFi news that all is well and the IMF from Mars...
I saved this picture to my computer once because it seemed so hilarious for me,... but now...and you...oh god.
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  • #11,451
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:40am Nov 23, 2011 7:40am
Long AUDUSD@ .09717
  • #11,452
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:45am Nov 23, 2011 7:45am
Quoting GoldMan.
I saved this picture to my computer once because it seemed so hilarious for me,... but now...and you...oh god.
Whoever that chart belongs to, I hope there is lots of air left in the scuba tank.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,453
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:48am Nov 23, 2011 7:48am
Quoting GoldMan.
I saved this picture to my computer once because it seemed so hilarious for me,... but now...and you...oh god.
that was fun, indeed one more buy, then I'm going home. I know that feeling As I said, nobody is right or wrong in his predictions, and the market is always right
  • #11,454
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:50am Nov 23, 2011 7:50am
Quoting michaelnew
This is what I see in my M30 charts, so this is what I trade, a bullish harmonic pattern. If it will behave correctly, the first level should be 1.3446 and the second may go as high as 1.355. But it may take up to 24 hours, again, IF this is really a harmonic bullish pattern and IF the market will react accordingly.
I am not sure what kind of harmonic pattern that is. Perhaps you are seeing it as such because you have 3 long positions underwater and you are "Hoping" it is a bullish pattern.

I suggest you take a look here --> http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#axzz1eXIW8chr

As for your underwater positions, you may get a chance to rescue them but I doubt this is going to be a winning trade for you, unless of course it works out as you "hope"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,455
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:53am Nov 23, 2011 7:53am
Quoting GoldMan.
I saved this picture to my computer once because it seemed so hilarious for me,... but now...and you...oh god.
I believe that is called catching a falling knife. But who knows, maybe it came back. The market does that from time to time.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,456
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:53am Nov 23, 2011 7:53am
Quoting michaelnew
that was fun, indeed one more buy, then I'm going home. I know that feeling As I said, nobody is right or wrong in his predictions, and the market is always right
Your right now 125 pips underwater with your first trade? It went wrong direction for you but hey, you added one more buy, then third one...do you really think you will survive and make it in to this business that way?
  • #11,457
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:55am Nov 23, 2011 7:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
If it comes to the point where the ECB has to buy German Bunds, then Germany will give in and allow the ECB to print. Germany is only opposed to printing now because THEY don't need it. Their fear of hyperinflation is BS. Anybody with half a brain today knows that printing does not lead to hyperinflation if managed and governed.

Printing money definitely has all the basics to lead to hyperinflation, it's the EXPANSION of your BALANCE SHEET for the benefit of the economy that doesn't. I know you are laughing but there's actually a difference

The difference is in the mindset. See, hyperinflation is nothing but an irrational behaviour from the crowd. And that behaviour simply needs a catalyst. That catalyst today can be the mighty run on gov bonds.

The single most important difference between the FED's "money printing" and ECB's potential "money printing" is that the ECB's potential action actually delivers a strong sense of REAL money printing.

When the FED "prints" the investors around the world take it as the STIMULATIVE action for the benefit of the U.S. economy. And the FED has done a great job advertising that out: They have rock bottom rates, so they cannot lower them anymore so they engage in QE's to lower the rates further across the board so the consumer would actually feel a little better having lower morgage rates and have left with more money in their pocket. The consensus doesn't view that as being a monetization fo the debt whereas this IS the beautiful side effect of it ....everybody still in the back of their minds believe that the expanded balance sheet will be contracted once the economy picks up....

However, when the ECB now starts to print it would send a CLEAR message that the only reason they are doing it is to MONETIZE the DEBT...and that's dangerous. THAT is money printing simply to buy others out. And this could lead to the run on the bonds, run on the currency and a potential hyperinflation...So, as ironical as it may sound, a hyperinflation could in fact emerge from europe

just my 2 cents.
  • #11,458
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:56am Nov 23, 2011 7:56am
I closed 80% of position at 3385, 20 % keep it open
  • #11,459
  • Nov 23, 2011 7:58am Nov 23, 2011 7:58am
Quoting FX Tsunami
You are correct Buma.... It is a known fact, that people fail and fail before they succeed... i've to prepare myself pshycologically first... I'm too far away from that track....

Hi FX - I've blown 2 accounts (it's a bummer) and then I read Jesse Livermore (how to trade stocks), Tom Williams (the undeclared secrets that drive the stock market) & Richard Wyckoff (studies in tape reading)...

If I was to pick one book, it would be Tom Williams (he explains Volume Spread Analysis). My pip count is improving (still get things wrong, but now I kill them quickly).

Stick with it and remember it's not a race.
patience is a virtue
  • #11,460
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:02am Nov 23, 2011 8:02am
Quoting lumesh
Printing money definitely has all the basics to lead to hyperinflation, it's the EXPANSION of your BALANCE SHEET for the benefit of the economy that doesn't. I know you are laughing but there's actually a difference

The difference is in the mindset. See, hyperinflation is nothing but an irrational behaviour from the crowd. And that behaviour simply needs a catalyst. That catalyst today can be the mighty run on gov bonds.

The single most important difference between the FED's "money printing" and ECB's potential "money printing" is...
Excellent point you make. I did laugh at the first paragraph
While I fully agree with you and your mindset argument, I still disagree that printing in Europe necessarily leads to hyperinflation if properly governed. By governed I mean in the same way that the Fed is doing it. This obviously requires more fiscal integration, because if the PIIGS kept on spending in such an environment of monetization, then yes, hyperinflation is the end result.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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