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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #11,281
  • Nov 22, 2011 3:42pm Nov 22, 2011 3:42pm
An interesting divergence has developed in the past 2 days between the S&P and the EURUSD. The S&P has weakened considerably while the Euro has moved sideways. This may be a consequence of the Clowns in Washington not agreeing on the budget cuts. I see the US Dollar Index weakening to around 76 in the coming days. I´m not sure this will mean a risk on trade. It will bolster the Euro and weaken the USD, but the S&P may not follow the Euro higher, It will be interesting to watch.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,282
  • Nov 22, 2011 3:58pm Nov 22, 2011 3:58pm
Quoting Alorente
An interesting divergence has developed in the past 2 days between the S&P and the EURUSD. The S&P has weakened considerably while the Euro has moved sideways. This may be a consequence of the Clowns in Washington not agreeing on the budget cuts. I see the US Dollar Index weakening to around 76 in the coming days. I´m not sure this will mean a risk on trade. It will bolster the Euro and weaken the USD, but the S&P may not follow the Euro higher, It will be interesting to watch.
Pretty bold call.
  • #11,283
  • Nov 22, 2011 4:04pm Nov 22, 2011 4:04pm
Quoting lumesh
Pretty bold call.
It´s just what the charts tell me. I´m sure there may be other interpretations but I have to call it as I see it. If I´m wrong I will learn from it. That´s the beauty of Technical Analysis.

I said before that the S&P may not follow. I really meant it may lag the euro even if it goes up.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,284
  • Nov 22, 2011 4:15pm Nov 22, 2011 4:15pm
I think this triangle is not so important because if it breaks:

 

  1. down, maximum would be the retest on today's open (around .3484);
  2. up, that would be the highest for the day (around .3555).

ps: ma 200 actin as resistance for the last days


€ / $ 1H


Any thoughts ?

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  • #11,285
  • Nov 22, 2011 4:18pm Nov 22, 2011 4:18pm
Quoting Alorente
It´s just what the charts tell me. I´m sure there may be other interpretations but I have to call it as I see it. If I´m wrong I will learn from it. That´s the beauty of Technical Analysis.

I said before that the S&P may not follow. I really meant it may lag the euro even if it goes up.
fair enough. Nothing to add here
  • #11,286
  • Nov 22, 2011 4:41pm Nov 22, 2011 4:41pm
Quoting Alorente
It´s just what the charts tell me. I´m sure there may be other interpretations but I have to call it as I see it. If I´m wrong I will learn from it. That´s the beauty of Technical Analysis.

I said before that the S&P may not follow. I really meant it may lag the euro even if it goes up.
I think it's headed to 77.5 support then breaking back up. The way price has been acting you maybe right
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #11,287
  • Nov 22, 2011 5:46pm Nov 22, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting Alorente
An interesting divergence has developed in the past 2 days between the S&P and the EURUSD. The S&P has weakened considerably while the Euro has moved sideways. This may be a consequence of the Clowns in Washington not agreeing on the budget cuts. I see the US Dollar Index weakening to around 76 in the coming days. I´m not sure this will mean a risk on trade. It will bolster the Euro and weaken the USD, but the S&P may not follow the Euro higher, It will be interesting to watch.

I think if you look at USD/CAD and GBP/USD you will see that the USD is moving as it "should". It is only the Euro that is odd man out.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,288
  • Nov 22, 2011 6:43pm Nov 22, 2011 6:43pm
I am keeping an eye on 15M but scenario is pretty much telling more to watch further.
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  • #11,289
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:21pm Nov 22, 2011 7:21pm
.
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  • #11,290
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:58pm Nov 22, 2011 7:58pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=FXE&m=2012-01

Here is something to look at , it looks like traders are playing the Jan12 and Mar12 puts on the euro, check out the Jan 129 puts strike price , the vol is 5,049 , open interest 5,988, priced 1.82 or $182.00 per option contract, and also the Mar12 puts 118 strike price , vol 2000, open interest 3537, priced at 1. or $100.00 per contract. It looks like traders are favoring the puts side of the euro in the next couple of months. Another thought play a straddle at the 1.3500 strike . I think it would cost you about a little over $700.00 to play it with one call and one puts.
You would need a big move on the pair , if the euro break apart the profits could be unlimited, a postive spin for the euro could send this pair back to the 1.42 level . I know this is out of context somewhat but it also show which way traders are placing there bets. Here is a weekly chart the red line is the 1.3500 level .

Place your bets,


fishman356


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  • #11,291
  • Nov 22, 2011 8:00pm Nov 22, 2011 8:00pm
The following report needs to be understood in order to follow the clues Gold will give to the behind the scenes manipulations.

http://www.gata.org/files/MurrayPollitt-11-14-2011.pdf

I can answer any questions you may have.
  • #11,292
  • Nov 22, 2011 8:00pm Nov 22, 2011 8:00pm
Bloody hell, I had 1.3474 as TP for my shorts @ 1.3525, I chickened out and TP by hand @ 1.350. 15 mins later the E/U dropped like a rock to my original TP. Man, I should probably quit trading.

EDIT: I can feel the urge to go in with a 10x lots right now for a fast 10 pips. Gotta supress it.
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  • #11,293
  • Nov 22, 2011 8:25pm Nov 22, 2011 8:25pm
We all have been there and done that. There is always another trade, so what if you got out on this one to early, next one BE+1 and let it ride, all part of it.

Quoting jeff_b
Bloody hell, I had 1.3474 as TP for my shorts @ 1.3525, I chickened out and TP by hand @ 1.350. 15 mins later the E/U dropped like a rock to my original TP. Man, I should probably quit trading.

EDIT: I can feel the urge to go in with a 10x lots right now for a fast 10 pips. Gotta supress it.
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #11,294
  • Nov 22, 2011 9:38pm Nov 22, 2011 9:38pm
Hi frnds,

1.3525 seems to be a strong S/R line and the price has been roaming around this for a while. Daily candles have failed to close above it.

Does that mean the market will probably pump in more bears???

There is also a possibility of triangle being broken above which i believe will not stop at least without 100 pips which i see not likely to happen today(atleast till NY open)

Chart attached.


ADD: Red line shows 3525. Sorry for a blurred chart.
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  • #11,295
  • Nov 22, 2011 9:59pm Nov 22, 2011 9:59pm
i see it a bit different, you see price is finding support at 1.34 and time and time again it has bounced off that area. the day before yesterday price went down again to support area and found buying pressure to close near the open, as far as yesterday goes, price traded 39 pips above previous low and 29 pips above previous high, closed 35 pips above open price.

today we see a strong move downward but this move stopped at S1 area which is actually yesterdays low, and correlates well with Average Expected Low,

i'm expecting to see a bounce upward from here and we might have just seen todays low, taking into account the daily chart you see price has been finding its footing after the down move, still withing normal price variations, so this would be a good area to buy the euro.

if price breaks the 1.3450 then i can see a strong move towards 1.32 very likely
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #11,296
  • Nov 22, 2011 10:03pm Nov 22, 2011 10:03pm
Quoting FX Tsunami
Hi frnds,

1.3525 seems to be a strong S/R line and the price has been roaming around this for a while. Daily candles have failed to close above it.

Does that mean the market will probably pump in more bears???

There is also a possibility of triangle being broken above which i believe will not stop at least without 100 pips which i see not likely to happen today(atleast till NY open)

Chart attached.



ADD: Red line shows 3525. Sorry for a blurred chart.

think both sides sir. if price cant crack a low, what does that mean?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #11,297
  • Nov 22, 2011 10:07pm Nov 22, 2011 10:07pm
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await a good buy entry point,

* disclaimer * everything is subject to change as price cannot be predicted, best to adapt to the changing environment, however the bias is buy
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #11,298
  • Nov 22, 2011 10:16pm Nov 22, 2011 10:16pm
Quoting bumapatria
think both sides sir. if price cant crack a low, what does that mean?
Ya Buma, i'm wary of it.

I know it has been ranging between 3420 and 3550. I'm looking for a break.

ADD: I've always sneeked my nose inside before i'm sure and badly hit almost everytime. And more over i belong to PISCES and naturally, always UNDERWATER
  • #11,299
  • Nov 22, 2011 10:48pm Nov 22, 2011 10:48pm
My prediction of where price adn time will meet next.

its is met with today as per my analysis.

45 angle now first hold.

aiming for bearish 45 angle and 50% retrace for bears.

im staying conservative.

mirror cycle suggests upmove.

just what i think -----> price and time have met with one anotehr.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #11,300
  • Nov 22, 2011 11:02pm Nov 22, 2011 11:02pm
Quoting the redlion
i see it a bit different, you see price is finding support at 1.34 and time and time again it has bounced off that area. the day before yesterday price went down again to support area and found buying pressure to close near the open, as far as yesterday goes, price traded 39 pips above previous low and 29 pips above previous high, closed 35 pips above open price.

today we see a strong move downward but this move stopped at S1 area which is actually yesterdays low, and correlates well with Average Expected Low,

i'm expecting to see a bounce upward...
Solid work. I would put the break price just a little lower at about 1.342. Also I would note that there are a couple of strong winds at the back of the bears-- strong negative sentiment of the equity markets and the continued mess in Europe.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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