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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #11,161
  • Nov 22, 2011 6:48am Nov 22, 2011 6:48am
Quoting nanningbob
What ever happened to balanced budgets??
I know you know, but I find this definition kinda funny.

Politics goal is to be elected.
Economists goal is to be in profit.
Bureucrats goal is to maximize budget.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,162
  • Nov 22, 2011 6:52am Nov 22, 2011 6:52am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Uhh, and your point? Could it be lower highs on 4 H and daily?
Also lower highs on the 15 and 1 hour.

My real point is that the price action is making me nervous. 1.342 is a pretty tough nut to crack. USD is Bullish... so why is Euro even more Bullish.

EDIT: the risk asset comment was yesterday. Yesterday equities were down by 2+%. Euro though was flat against the dollar and bullish against the CAD and the GBP.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,163
  • Nov 22, 2011 6:57am Nov 22, 2011 6:57am
Thank you much for your vouch Gofer. I really appreciate it. Although you have completely different style of trading, I can clearly see you are a great trader and am looking forward to explore THV once they kick me out of work for sitting whole day at FF. This token of your confidence means a lot to me and I will do my best to keep it.

Regards,

Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,164
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:00am Nov 22, 2011 7:00am
one from me too
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,165
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:01am Nov 22, 2011 7:01am
Quoting nanningbob
What ever happened to balanced budgets?? I feel like the only person in the world who still believes in them. Can anyone point me to one politician in the world that is talking about balancing the budget instead of figuring out how they can print/borrow/spend more money?? Dumb question I know.
The problem is not that they are not looking to balance the budget now. The problem is that they did not build a surplus when the going was good.
Proper national fiscal management should be a focus on building surpluses for rainy days such as these... not building more debt in the hope that the future will get better and brighter (The recipe for disaster).
Notwithstanding the above, we are now is a recession (Like it or not) and the only way out of it is through the right mix of monetary easing and a balanced approach to fiscal austerity and stimulus, not monetary tightening and fiscal austerity. The latter kills economies.

Also, if the banks have got themselves to the point of holding toxic sovereign bonds because they blindly lent to governments without doing the same kind of due diligence that they do on corporate and consumer credit, then they deserve to take a hit. If governments allow a few banks to fail, it will make the remaining ones stronger. This whole culture of nationalizing debt and privatizing profit has to come to an end. As for the investors in any such failing banks (shareholders and bondholders), they knew the risks of investing in banks. No bank is infallible. That is why they get a return on their investment. Risk.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,166
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:03am Nov 22, 2011 7:03am
Quoting AaronWard
Also lower highs on the 15 and 1 hour.

My real point is that the price action is making me nervous. 1.342 is a pretty tough nut to crack. USD is Bullish... so why is Euro even more Bullish.
Well, PT posted earlier and it was on CNBC how China wants a strong Euro as they are their largest trading partner so they take it up, US wants weak dollar due to debt and interest on debt while the bums in office play circle jerk politics. I hope the politicians realize that we may throw them all out next year.

PA always makes me nervous until green pips locked!

It also could be big players getting trader commitment on longs before they head fake and take it low, or big boys locking profits before holiday,
I DUNNO!

EDIT: Plus it's fun to get you wound up right before NY open
  • #11,167
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:05am Nov 22, 2011 7:05am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Thank you much for your vouch Gofer. I really appreciate it. Although you have completely different style of trading, I can clearly see you are a great trader and am looking forward to explore THV once they kick me out of work for sitting whole day at FF. This token of your confidence means a lot to me and I will do my best to keep it.

Regards,

Tom
Well deserved, and you are most welcome.
  • #11,168
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:06am Nov 22, 2011 7:06am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Well, PT posted earlier and it was on CNBC how China wants a strong Euro as they are their largest trading partner so they take it up, US wants weak dollar due to debt and interest on debt while the bums in office play circle jerk politics. I hope the politicians realize that we may throw them all out next year.

PA always makes me nervous until green pips locked!

It also could be big players getting trader commitment on longs before they head fake and take it low, or big boys locking profits before holiday,
I DUNNO!
you forgot "all or many of the above"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,169
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:10am Nov 22, 2011 7:10am
Quoting AaronWard
one from me too
Aaron, my favourite opponent for discussions , thank you very much for this token of confidence. I value discussions with you a lot and hope you will still be the same and will be confronting economical dogmas. I will do my best to argue with you so we can both evolve, be the best and reap some nice profits.

Regards,

Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,170
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:28am Nov 22, 2011 7:28am
Okay it looks like the SP500 is respecting the channel boundaries so it is looking even more bearish from here now.

Let's see what the econ data brings us
US 3rd quarter prelim q/q GDP coming up.. expected at 2.4% vs 2.5% last time

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sp500-h1.gif Size: 29 KB


ADD: GDP at 2.0 0.4 less than expected. Down we go... maybe? I guess we will find out at NYSE open how the market feels about it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,171
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:30am Nov 22, 2011 7:30am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/up.../mwo112111.pdf

I strongly suggest that everyone on this thread read the PDF file for the 10 minutes or so it will take you.

I consider myself a very intelligent person and that is because I know what I do not know. When a gem such as the information contained in this PDF file comes along from someone that knows more than myself I can read it, understand it and file it away keeping my eye on events moving forward. Knowledge is Power and the more you know the less you do not know. I am...
very good read....
patience is a virtue
  • #11,172
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:32am Nov 22, 2011 7:32am
This is how I look like right now.

I hope you wont take my vouchers for those #5 shorts , yet as I said, I just dont want to miss the submarine and I already booked some from the swings. This is whats left and I was willing to dive that one from 3477, coz I just dont see PA going any higher than 3610.

But right now, it starts to seem I am going to clear all those bad boys and keep only 3565 and 3550 as we are finally starting to fall.

T
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Tom rating.jpg Size: 164 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,173
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:33am Nov 22, 2011 7:33am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Aaron, my favourite opponent for discussions , thank you very much for this token of confidence. I value discussions with you a lot and hope you will still be the same and will be confronting economical dogmas. I will do my best to argue with you so we can both evolve, be the best and reap some nice profits.

Regards,

Tom
Well, if that is the way you feel, then I will continue to be disagreeable.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,174
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:35am Nov 22, 2011 7:35am
Posted some ideas on my TA last night, and highlighted an area at 3540-50 as resistance based off an accumulation of bar highs at this area.

If price was to get through there, I saw it being capped at the 3570 area which is an area of fib confluence and also some previous bar highs confirming some short term resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2011-11-22 at 13.27.16.png Size: 79 KB


Currently respecting this short term resistance. I'm still looking for shorts only at this time. Having said that something in my water is expecting a bit of a thanksgiving rally this week. Lets wait and see.
  • #11,175
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:42am Nov 22, 2011 7:42am
Quoting picon1
Currently respecting this short term resistance. I'm still looking for shorts only at this time. Having said that something in my water is expecting a bit of a thanksgiving rally this week. Lets wait and see.
I think you can pretty well bank on that happening. The only question is where will the rally start? At these levels or at 1.3250?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,176
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:47am Nov 22, 2011 7:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
I think you can pretty well bank on that happening. The only question is where will the rally start? At these levels or at 1.3250?
1.3250 I hope
I will take lower profits out and reload at next level, if and when that happens.
Nobody has even thought that this thing just might go to the cellar over the holiday, hell it may even bust 1.3145 and head to 1.2870.
Right now, anything possible with this drunken pair!
  • #11,177
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:47am Nov 22, 2011 7:47am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Well, PT posted earlier and it was on CNBC how China wants a strong Euro as they are their largest trading partner so they take it up, US wants weak dollar due to debt and interest on debt while the bums in office play circle jerk politics. I hope the politicians realize that we may throw them all out next year.

PA always makes me nervous until green pips locked!

It also could be big players getting trader commitment on longs before they head fake and take it low, or big boys locking profits before holiday,
I DUNNO!

EDIT:[color=black]...
Good call Gofer
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,178
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:48am Nov 22, 2011 7:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
I think you can pretty well bank on that happening. The only question is where will the rally start? At these levels or at 1.3250?
I think as a few people have highlighted over the last few posts, 3420 is a logical area to start looking for a decision, just based off simple TA from the chart and all the spikey bar lows down there.

(simple TA is about the limit of my ability at the moment )
  • #11,179
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:48am Nov 22, 2011 7:48am
Short EUR/JPY at 104.094
My ultimate target is sub 100

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,180
  • Nov 22, 2011 7:49am Nov 22, 2011 7:49am
AW,

How's that bearish divergence working for you now!

It's working for me. I just want it to swing low about 350 pips.
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