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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #10,901
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:18am Nov 21, 2011 5:18am
EU's Juncker: if France were to lose its AAA rating so would EFSF

Translation: If 2-1=1 then 2-1=1. Wow, thanks Juncker. I never would have thought of that.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,902
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:25am Nov 21, 2011 5:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
Translation: If 2-1=1 then 2-1=1. Wow, thanks Juncker. I never would have thought of that.
EFSF is a very funny one institution. We already had a good laugh to emty box filled with promises of borrowed money, but I just still dont get how fund with absolutely no cash filled with toxic CCC bonds can have AAA status.

Btw, I have mentioned this several times, but banks across Europe are filled with EFSF bonds. You know why? Because this superb high quality asset has no haircut while used as collateral within ECB. So once rating agencies strike EFSF, they will have to implement haircut and banks will need to provide new collateral which will again take precious liquidity out of banking sector. Nice one chain effect.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,903
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:35am Nov 21, 2011 5:35am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
EFSF is a very funny one institution. We already had a good laugh to emty box filled with promises of borrowed money, but I just still dont get how fund with absolutely no cash filled with toxic CCC bonds can have AAA status.

Btw, I have mentioned this several times, but banks across Europe are filled with EFSF bonds. You know why? Because this superb high quality asset has no haircut while used as collateral within ECB. So once rating agencies strike EFSF, they will have to implement haircut and banks will need to provide new collateral which...

EFSF is AAA rated because most of it is guaranteed by AAA rated countries (Germany and France). So they are guaranteeing toilet paper with real cash.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,904
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:35am Nov 21, 2011 5:35am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
EFSF is a very funny one institution. We already had a good laugh to emty box filled with promises of borrowed money, but I just still dont get how fund with absolutely no cash filled with toxic CCC bonds can have AAA status.

Btw, I have mentioned this several times, but banks across Europe are filled with EFSF bonds. You know why? Because this superb high quality asset has no haircut while used as collateral within ECB. So once rating agencies strike EFSF, they will have to implement haircut and banks will need to provide new collateral which...
because Germany has signed for it and so has France. So really the EFSF is a kind of a backdoor Eurobond...

Fool posted a great youtube video about it. The EFSF has a lot of supranational powers. For example, they can not be sued, but they can sue anybody they feel like.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,905
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:37am Nov 21, 2011 5:37am
.http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wDB4x5vvl8...Crisis+NYT.png
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,906
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:38am Nov 21, 2011 5:38am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
EFSF is a very funny one institution. We already had a good laugh to emty box filled with promises of borrowed money, but I just still dont get how fund with absolutely no cash filled with toxic CCC bonds can have AAA status.

Btw, I have mentioned this several times, but banks across Europe are filled with EFSF bonds. You know why? Because this superb high quality asset has no haircut while used as collateral within ECB. So once rating agencies strike EFSF, they will have to implement haircut and banks will need to provide new collateral which...
Yeah ratings agencies are a joke. How about the MBS's/CMO's/CDO's aka toxic assets that were given investment grade ratings despite being bonds written off a pool of low priority CMO tranches, effectively junk themselves. A bit of creative reshuffling and sweeping the dust under a rug and the house is clean.

Same story, different day. Politicians can only think a couple of years ahead at most, what do they care if the whole thing collapses after they've gone
"Don't Panic..."
  • #10,907
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:39am Nov 21, 2011 5:39am
Thats what Germany and France were discussing 14 days ago. Expanding guarantees. Do you guys have any clue how much do they guarantee? Because I dont.

Damn I am glad our country aint in the Eurozone.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,908
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:40am Nov 21, 2011 5:40am
Quoting AaronWard
because Germany has signed for it and so has France. So really the EFSF is a kind of a backdoor Eurobond...

Fool posted a great youtube video about it. The EFSF has a lot of supranational powers. For example, they can not be sued, but they can sue anybody they feel like.
Here it is

.
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,909
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:41am Nov 21, 2011 5:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
...
Thats a great picture. Thx
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,910
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:42am Nov 21, 2011 5:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Thats what Germany and France were discussing 14 days ago. Expanding guarantees. Do you guys have any clue how much do they guarantee? Because I dont.

Damn I am glad our country aint in the Eurozone.
I don't have the number on France but Germany's guarantee is €211 Billion

However, France, on top of its EFSF guarantee, has also guaranteed around €200 Billion of Dexxia debt.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,911
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:43am Nov 21, 2011 5:43am
Quoting lovepips
yep I'm looking at the 30m candles and it looks like there could be a turn around - I just wanna sit and watch this one for a while. I'm not in a rush....
glad I waited... :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #10,912
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:50am Nov 21, 2011 5:50am
Quoting lovepips
glad I waited... :-)
Yeah it's not a good day to enter fresh positions so far. Perhaps the US session will show some promise for a long, although I doubt it. Until we see some official statements from the US budget super committee, it is best to just sit on what we have.

I am leaving my shorts on, but that's me.

ADD: If we break below 1.3420, it's pretty well game over (for today at least)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,913
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:53am Nov 21, 2011 5:53am
Ok, I wasnt lazy and found it. Here is the link:

http://www.efsf.europa.eu/attachment...ntation_en.pdf

The top five guarantees are:

Germany 211 Bn, France 158, Italy 139, Spain 92, Netherlands 44

Total Guarantees - 799 Bn.

So it seems it was somehow raised from the original 440 Bn. Especially Italy and Spain are very reliable creditors.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,914
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:57am Nov 21, 2011 5:57am
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...s-a-super-joke

For those of us such as PipTrapper that are well versed with fundamental knowledge of what is going on the article in the link above should do one thing for your education if nothing else.

We have reached the end game and I personally think the failure of the super committee will bring people's memories back to the summer. We are watching a very very serious problem in Europe and we have seen what has happened in Greece, Then Italy, now Spain and soon France.

These events have no real solution. This events will affect the economy world wide.

Now we come to America and REALITY. The problem will not go away and after the downgrading to AA Plus and this travesty in the USA the people at risk will have to start arranging things differently. The shift has started and this event of November 23, 2011 has to lead more and more to understand having watched Europe the last 60 days that the problem is much worse in the USA.

Nothing can be predicted with certainty for the next while. Every party with skin in the game such as China, Russia, Middle East, Europe and the USA will do whatever they can to survive. The unfolding events will be unknown until we see them be realized.

There is substantial profits to be made for those with knowledge and an open mind.

The world is changing in front of our eyes and it is important to be aware of that and not been a sheep. Discover things for yourself. Stay alert and understand where we are and where we are going even if you yourself have no control over what happens.

In the end there will be a beginning and a rebalancing. Since August 15, 1971 this problem has been brewing and now the Coffee Pot has overflowed. The world has now seen the complete lack of a solution in the USA and now there will be a very big price to pay. MF Global was the start of the awareness that nothing is safe out there in the investing world.

The meltdown is in full force and the year 2012 will be one for the History books.

This is my own personal view of things based on my knowledge and understanding of things. We are all free to have our own opinions however nothing of opinion can change the fact that the USA has a 15 Trillion Dollar Problem that will not go away. Facts cannot be changed by hope. Have a good week and be aware.
  • #10,915
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:59am Nov 21, 2011 5:59am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, I wasnt lazy and found it. Here is the link:

http://www.efsf.europa.eu/attachment...ntation_en.pdf

The top five guarantees are:

Germany 211 Bn, France 158, Italy 139, Spain 92, Netherlands 44

Total Guarantees - 799 Bn.

So it seems it was somehow raised from the original 440 Bn. Especially Italy and Spain are very reliable creditors.

T.

Yes but the lending facility is still only €440 Billion.
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: efsf.jpg Size: 98 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,916
  • Nov 21, 2011 6:04am Nov 21, 2011 6:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes but the lending facility is still only €440 Billion.
.
Yeah, but I thought that somewhere in the fine print they (the esfs) could unilaterally up the amounts.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,917
  • Nov 21, 2011 6:07am Nov 21, 2011 6:07am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...s-a-super-joke
Muachachaa, they are selling emergency food and gold/silver coins on that webpage. What a great way to make some cash on depression. I wonder when they start selling personal bombshelters.

Anyway, I acknowledge there are debt problems in US as well, but the main difference is that US has 2% yield on 10y bonds. This will be worse if US is downgraded, but even so, US has some growth, although minimal. Unlike Europe, where is absolutely no growth. I believe as well in financial meltdown in US, but much later. I cant date it right now, but now I am focusing on meltdown in EMU.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,918
  • Nov 21, 2011 6:08am Nov 21, 2011 6:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
Here it is

.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CZr17HLH5U
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." - Thomas Jefferson
  • #10,919
  • Nov 21, 2011 6:08am Nov 21, 2011 6:08am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...s-a-super-joke

For those of us such as PipTrapper that are well versed with fundamental knowledge of what is going on the article in the link above should do one thing for your education if nothing else.

We have reached the end game and I personally think the failure of the super committee will bring people's memories back to the summer. We are watching a very very serious problem in Europe and we have seen what has happened in Greece, Then Italy, now...
Thanks Kno. Great article and commentary
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,920
  • Nov 21, 2011 6:14am Nov 21, 2011 6:14am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Muachachaa, they are selling emergency food and gold/silver coins on that webpage. What a great way to make some cash on depression. I wonder when they start selling personal bombshelters.

Anyway, I acknowledge there are debt problems in US as well, but the main difference is that US has 2% yield on 10y bonds. This will be worse if US is downgraded, but even so, US has some growth, although minimal. Unlike Europe, where is absolutely no growth. I believe as well in financial meltdown in US, but much later. I cant date it right now, but now I...
Kno is correct.. Nobody knows what will happen. However, if I had to choose where to stash my cash in the short term, it would still be USDs
I believe gold will take a big hit when traders and investors are forced to liquidate what they can to cover margin calls. Once that is over, then and only then would be a good time to buy gold... not now. (my opinion)
Food is a different matter. If you have a garden, start planting fruit and veggies, and if you have enough room, buy some chickens and roosters... maybe some rabbits too
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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