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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #10,881
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:02am Nov 21, 2011 4:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
If you want to create a reference of what percentage might be speculative, look at Oil. On a commercial level, oil perhaps goes from producer to broker to maybe one more broker to refinery. That's approx a max of 4 hand changes. Now look at the total consumption, multiply it by 4 and then compare it to the reported volume. I can't be bothered doing the research and calculations, but I will "speculate" that the traded volume will outnumber the actual physical trade by about 15 to 30. If you feel like calculating it, I would be interested in...
I don't really understand what you mean by all that

If you are saying that Oil market is speculative then i'm 100% with you...
  • #10,882
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:03am Nov 21, 2011 4:03am
Quoting afos
Mr PT can you put the link on here pls!
is it? http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rat...ment-bonds/uk/
The links for Italian bonds are on page 1
Soon I will add the Spanish bonds if they continue to grow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,883
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:03am Nov 21, 2011 4:03am
For those brave souls who believe we are at a reversal or in a range, we now have a couple bottom and a couple of reversal signals on the 5 min. I am a coward though, so no longs for me. But I did close a couple of floating shorts. But I still have a few more from where they came from.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,884
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:09am Nov 21, 2011 4:09am
Quoting lumesh
I don't really understand what you mean by all that

If you are saying that Oil market is speculative then i'm 100% with you...
I am saying that there might be a correlation (in terms of what percentage is speculative) between oil and the Fx market. However, Sisse just made an excellent point in response to my post. So, based on that, just forget I even posted it. LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,885
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:13am Nov 21, 2011 4:13am
Quoting AaronWard
Now don't get all negative on me. Things are pretty good by comparison to the way there were 50 or 100 years ago. And a big part of that "pretty good" is in fact our banking system. If you want a picture of what is right with the world, take a look at this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo
interesting video but it simplifies things way too much....

a few points:
1. Life expectancy (men) the suggestion that we are getting older by a large margin is questionable... Herodotus (500BC) - Solon estimated that the average age of a man is 7 decades. That's around the same as today.

2. Life expectancy (women) - yes without doubt the number of women dying in childbirth has dramatically fallen and it is women that are living longer (not really men - over 90% of those over 100 are women)

3. Wealth of nations - is held by and large by the top 2%.

4. Banking - "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies" - Thomas Jefferson
"Paper money has had the effect in your state that it will ever have, to ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice." -- George Washington 1787
patience is a virtue
  • #10,886
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:14am Nov 21, 2011 4:14am
Quoting AaronWard
For those brave souls who believe we are at a reversal or in a range, we now have a couple bottom and a couple of reversal signals on the 5 min. I am a coward though, so no longs for me. But I did close a couple of floating shorts. But I still have a few more from where they came from.
This might explain it.

H1 charts of German Dax30 and British Ftse100. Price has reached falling channel support.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,887
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:17am Nov 21, 2011 4:17am
Quoting AaronWard
My interest in this question is more than academic. To date I have made more money off of fundamental based trades than any other, and to me the most important single question is "What drives a currency market". And the single most important question here is "Is it primarily speculative or is it primarily commercial?"

I missed your debunking of the 4 trillion number and would be happy to look at it if you wish to post the link.

On a personally level I know I have bought and sold well over 100,000,000 just this year... and...
Welcome to the endangered species group .

"What drives a currency market". I think understanding this, is not required conditions for making money trading. However IMO is all about perspective in trading and the game you want to play.

For example If you are in the sub M5 timeframe (most gamblers and FF new traders) what drives the markets is HFT (algos, etc) so it is irrelevant what is the interest rate or inflation or whatever. If you are in mid intra-day timeframe you may want to check dealers, banks, intrday options and most of the retail (S or R, pivots, indicators or whatever else)

If you are in daily/weekly, currency markets are predominantly drive by FA valuation from different player commercials, banks,funds, etc so interest rates, inflation, macro FA are the ones and everything else below that will be noise.

In simple words, thousand of factors and players drives the markets. Some pure speculative based on math models, some speculative in macroecomic models and valuation, some others base on pure FA underlying and needs....whatever the case the only important thing is choosing the playing field you want a trade and be consistent with it.... If you plan to take a rate hike or the EZ collapse in a M5 chart you better do something else, also if you want to play a rate cut etc for 20 pips using a weekly chart you better go to a Casino and get better bang and fun for the buck

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #10,888
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:17am Nov 21, 2011 4:17am
Quoting AaronWard
For those brave souls who believe we are at a reversal or in a range, we now have a couple bottom and a couple of reversal signals on the 5 min. I am a coward though, so no longs for me. But I did close a couple of floating shorts. But I still have a few more from where they came from.
I've been watching the candles to try and find a nice entry point for a few longs... I'd like to see it move above 3475 before entering
patience is a virtue
  • #10,889
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:20am Nov 21, 2011 4:20am
Quoting sisse
In simple words, thousand of factors and players drives the markets. Some pure speculative based on math models, some speculative in macroecomic models and valuation, some others base on pure FA underlying and needs....whatever the case the only important thing is choosing the playing field you want a trade and be consistent with it.... If you plan to take a rate hike or the EZ collapse in a M5 chart you better do something else, also if you want to play a rate cut etc for 20 pips using a weekly chart you better go to a Casino and get better bang...
Excellent response Sisse. Enlightening as usual
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,890
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:20am Nov 21, 2011 4:20am
long. cycle hit. target the first 50% for my tp possibility


dark red lines are the lines to watch out for. add a few fibs we can get few points we can find as hit-point.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,891
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:21am Nov 21, 2011 4:21am
Quoting sisse
Oil is prolly clearer. The main issue is defining what is pure speculation and what's not in FX. A big company holding forwards/options/futures for a future transaction that have to cover later in the year, is that speculation? or a dealer desk holding a few millions intraday the highs to make a bull trap in London open to sell it after 10 minutes? or a option barrier defended? is that speculation? what about a CB (e.g BOJ or SNB) artificially buying/selling a currency to keep a band, is that speculation? or hedge fund? and or finally a importer/exporter...
I tried to sidestep the speculative question by defining it as commercial V non-commercial. I even told PT I would like to put the speculative issue on the side as I couldn't figure out any way to deal with it.

I have never seen any data on the spot market, and I honestly doubt it exists. Spot is a decentralized public/private network of exchanges. I side-stepped the issue by going to the COT market. Here about 80% of positions are commercial. But PT insisted that the COT was not that important.

Anyway, what your take... more speculative or more commercial. Feel free to define in any way you like.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,892
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:24am Nov 21, 2011 4:24am
Quoting lovepips
I've been watching the candles to try and find a nice entry point for a few longs... I'd like to see it move above 3475 before entering
I see consecutive dojis on M30... Doji = indecision so if it were me, I would go with that. Indecision.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,893
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:28am Nov 21, 2011 4:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
I see consecutive dojis on M30... Doji = indecision so if it were me, I would go with that. Indecision.
yep I'm looking at the 30m candles and it looks like there could be a turn around - I just wanna sit and watch this one for a while. I'm not in a rush....
patience is a virtue
  • #10,894
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:30am Nov 21, 2011 4:30am
I agree that fundamentals have no real place in the lower timeframes. I enter all positions in a lower time frame (5 min is my preferred) based on S/R & chart patterns, but I take direction from fundamentals and I exit in a variety of different timeframes. I also jack up my lot size when the earth moves-- Italian bonds jump to 7%, Greeks declare a referendum, etc.

But the real issue is that there is no way I am going to spend 10-12 hours a day in front of a computer screen without trying to understand what is going on behind the computer screen.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,895
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:36am Nov 21, 2011 4:36am
Chichichiii, Moodys shorting again EUR while in a breakpoint. I just love those guys.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7ML0SG20111121

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,896
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:41am Nov 21, 2011 4:41am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Chichichiii, Moodys shorting again EUR while in a breakpoint. I just love those guys.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7ML0SG20111121

T
they also got wide stop losses.

im ready for my stop hunt short once this reaches my long target iwill short heavy, and hunt those buyers that have SL still there.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,897
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:45am Nov 21, 2011 4:45am
Quoting AaronWard
I tried to sidestep the speculative question by defining it as commercial V non-commercial. I even told PT I would like to put the speculative issue on the side as I couldn't figure out any way to deal with it.

I have never seen any data on the spot market, and I honestly doubt it exists. Spot is a decentralized public/private network of exchanges. I side-stepped the issue by going to the COT market. Here about 80% of positions are commercial. But PT insisted that the COT was not that important.

Anyway, what your take... more speculative...
To settle the conversation. If we define speculative as any bet on a future value of a currency (can be 1 minute or next quarter, with a stochastic or Goldman macroeconomic analyst) there is a LOT (most) more speculative money than not. The only exceptions are CB and SPOT commercial transaction of a real good or service.

I agree with PT on the COT. IS irrelevant in my books to know what is "commercial" or not in that sense (some may find other uses). As I mentioned before, commercial what kind? and whats the outlook? is useless to know that the are more "commercials" (whatever that "means" in the COT). More importantly is only in the CME, what about the biggest FX spot market in the world: London?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #10,898
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:47am Nov 21, 2011 4:47am
Quoting AaronWard
[font=Arial]I agree that fundamentals have no real place in the lower timeframes. I enter all positions in a lower time frame (5 min is my preferred) based on S/R & chart patterns, but I take direction from fundamentals and I exit in a variety of different timeframes. I also jack up my lot size when the earth moves-- Italian bonds jump to 7%, Greeks declare a referendum, etc.

But the real issue is that there is no way I am going to spend 10-12 hours a day in front of a computer screen without trying to understand what is going on behind the...
This will be a lot easier to understand
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,899
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:54am Nov 21, 2011 4:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
This will be a lot easier to understand
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPz92AQCPlc

Smart ass... stirring the pot...taking my statements out of context...being deliberately obtuse...

I still watched it though. It is good to know exactly what I will see if my trades go against me and I get upset enough to smash the screen in front of me.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,900
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:05am Nov 21, 2011 5:05am
Quoting GoldMan.
Had a strange start today, dax30 bluffed me 2 times. When eurusd falled like a rock, dax30 did almost nothing, that made me a bit careful and secured my posisions almost immediately when I had a change but it took me out.
1 position open:
Over 100 green pip, waiting for next good move.
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