EurAnalysis | Page 543 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #10,841
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:43am Nov 21, 2011 12:43am
Hihihii, already + 330 today. I am glad I left those shorts opened through weekend. Now I could use that bear on cocaine. But well, it is probably still too early.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,842
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:44am Nov 21, 2011 12:44am
Quoting michaelnew
3 longs opened at 1.3492, 1.3476 and 1.3464, TP at 1.3560. Let's see if this plays out nicely... So far looks like the bulls are doing whatever they want

ADD: should have been the "bears". The bears are doing whatever they want. The bulls ain't doing nothing )
I've got to agree with Aaron there. Asia had the bounce off resistance, wait for London to reach support before thinking about long. Just my opinion, see chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: long.png Size: 26 KB
"Don't Panic..."
  • #10,843
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:45am Nov 21, 2011 12:45am
Quoting AaronWard
I don't care what anybody says... there is no way that this is a high probability long set up on the 5 min charts.
Lets watch the PA around here and see what it tells us.....

Posted elsewhere: The break of the MS 1 level IMO suggests a continuation to the confluence around S1 - Fridays Low and 3450 SS.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,844
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:46am Nov 21, 2011 12:46am
Quoting AaronWard
yeah, it does. But even if every good and service entered and left Europe twice, the Forex market is still 8X bigger.

A bolt built in China that goes to Germany to become a car part and then returns to China as a car will only cross the border twice.

Further, importers and exports only really need to change their "imbalance". They buy 5000 USD of parts and then sell 10000 USD of car... means that their imbalance is only 5000 USD.

But to be fair, the multiplier is tricky and I don't have any real data on it.
Tom D explained what I was thinking a little better above 'turnover' was on the tip of my tongue but I just couldn't find it.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #10,845
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:46am Nov 21, 2011 12:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't see any flaws in that logic although the 25% figure is an assumption allbeit a fair one.

as for the difference between volume and capital, here it is.
Volume is the total number of purchases and sales of a particular instrument. , whereas capital is the total value of any such purchases and sales.
I pulled the 25% from somewhere... I didn't just make it up, although somebody else might have...

Are you sure? When I look at volume on charts that show it such as the S&P, the volume figure shows a total value of all transactions, not the number.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,846
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:46am Nov 21, 2011 12:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
JNo, paying for real time is a waste of money unless you are actively trading bonds or bond futures.
I use Bloomberg 15 minute delayed.

I have a bloomberg app which IMO doesn't delay and is free also...which brings me to my next point...do you see the speed of spanish bond yields moving up ?
  • #10,847
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:47am Nov 21, 2011 12:47am
Quoting AaronWard
yeah, it does. But even if every good and service entered and left Europe twice, the Forex market is still 8X bigger.

A bolt built in China that goes to Germany to become a car part and then returns to China as a car will only cross the border twice.

Further, importers and exports only really need to change their "imbalance". They buy 5000 USD of parts and then sell 10000 USD of car... means that their imbalance is only 5000 USD.

But to be fair, the multiplier is tricky and I don't have any real data on it.

Regardless of how the numbers work or don't work, we are just speculating on speculation.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,848
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:47am Nov 21, 2011 12:47am
USDX is in supply. should give good retest of 78.14 before continuation i think
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,849
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:49am Nov 21, 2011 12:49am
Quoting Halifax
Tom D explained what I was thinking a little better above 'turnover' was on the tip of my tongue but I just couldn't find it.
Lol, the multiplier for turnover... but still, it is only significant in that it creates an imbalance on the books for a business AND the goods cross a border.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,850
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:50am Nov 21, 2011 12:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
Regardless of how the numbers work or don't work, we are just speculating on speculation.
We are in the speculation derivative market.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,851
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:51am Nov 21, 2011 12:51am
Quoting AaronWard
Conclusion: there is no way that European importers and exporters need to purchase even 100% of GDP of EUROs a year. So clearly the vast majority must be speculators.

Any flaws?
Some mate. A currency is not 1:1 related to GDP not even in liquid circulation cash (M1, M2, etcin monetary terms). Also a currency is not only related to international trade (imports and exports) but also reserves, long term holdings, speculators, etc, etc, so technically is not only incorrect to make that relation but probably impossible ...my 2 cents

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Same here. Spain and Belgium are not looking well. Spain doesnt have such a huge deficit, but those yield are starting to look nasty. I wonder when news headlines start ass spanking of Belgium, they have 110 % debt of GDP and bond yields are bubbling towards 5% now.
Problems in Belgium are in the internal political side. They were without a government for over a year, and as long as Flemish and Wallons politicians can't agree even to sit in a table and chat, markets will punish the instability with higher yields given the uncertainty....from a strictly macro point of view they are in a complete different league than the Piigs so....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #10,852
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:52am Nov 21, 2011 12:52am
Quoting AaronWard
I pulled the 25% from somewhere... I didn't just make it up, although somebody else might have...

Are you sure? When I look at volume on charts that show it such as the S&P, the volume figure shows a total value of all transactions, not the number.
I have read many times that it is tick volume.
Perhaps on the sp500 equity index (and other equity indices) it is displayed as a value because the stock prices of all the 500 instruments in the index have a known price and they are all factored in.

However, how would one do that with currencies being traded against each other?

Anyway, really I do not know. However, I am going based on what I have read about volume in currency spot markets. It is all tick volume and the contract size is not factored in.

ADD: I think it is safe to assume that the majority of spot transactions (not futures or options) are speculative.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,853
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:52am Nov 21, 2011 12:52am
Quoting lumesh
I have a bloomberg app which IMO doesn't delay and is free also...which brings me to my next point...do you see the speed of spanish bond yields moving up ?
I think you must be mistaken. Bloomberg only provides 15 mins delayed data for free. Good enough for me for the mid term and long term decisions.

Could you post the link? Btw, I am using this site, as there are all charts from Bloomberg at the same page.

http://workforall.net/CDS-Credit-default-Swaps.html

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,854
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:55am Nov 21, 2011 12:55am
Quoting AaronWard
Lol, the multiplier for turnover... but still, it is only significant in that it creates an imbalance on the books for a business AND the goods cross a border.
The multiplier seems to be up to 6000% according to this data set, if I'm reading it right, for transactions vs GDP.

Take a look and tell me what you think

EDIT: forgot the transactions data... derp

http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000001451
"Don't Panic..."
  • #10,855
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:56am Nov 21, 2011 12:56am
Quoting AaronWard
No, the money is quite simply gone. It is not in the system and it no longer exists. Nothing to do with currency devaluation and nobody took it. Have a read about the fractional reserve ratio, watch the video I recommended, and then come back with questions.
Inserted Video


This is really crazy. Now i have a question, What is the need of Gov't??

God damn these bankers making fool of the whole world. No debt No money... sounds like hell....Where all these are gonna end??? I dont really understand why should i make money and pay to those **** (sorry PT)
  • #10,856
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:58am Nov 21, 2011 12:58am
Quoting AaronWard
Hey PT, I have been thinking about the question of how much of the Forex market is controlled by speculators. I approached it from another angle and come up with the following answer:

1. 4 Trillion daily turnover with about 25% in the Euro/USD pair means about 1 Trillion daily turnover.
2. 365 days -52 weekends = about 260 market days.
3. So 260 X 1 trillion means that over a year the market purchases over 260 trillion Euros with USD (this does not count any other currency transaction such as EUR/YEN)
4. The GDP of Europe is about...
Yes, it's a flawled concept and that's one of those big myths about the fx market.

The 4 Trillion figure is notional not a real volume. If you think about how forex market is set up then you'll realize that one trade goes through multiple banks before it finds the other part.

Illustrative example: You wanna buy 1M euros. You hit that order with your broker. The broker looks for a counter order and starts to hedge it by passing it on...The same thing happens multiple times before there is a final counter part willing to take the other end of the trade. Probably 5 or more "trades" happened in the mean time with this hot potato game where they tried to find the counterpart. Everyone paid a commission for the trade and it gets registered. So, your 1M trade turned into 5M....but the real volume was still 1M. That's one of the reasons why fx market seems to be this big. But be sure that the 4 trillion figure is BS...Real volume could very well be below trillion.
  • #10,857
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:59am Nov 21, 2011 12:59am
Quoting sisse
Problems in Belgium are in the internal political side. ....
Hi sisse, thanks for coming, it is always great to see your posts and how much you know.

Yes, they are in the different League, since EU is socialistic bureucratic machinery and they are in the centre of it reaping as much as they can. Well I think every nation would do the same. So perhaps you are right. But anyway, this nation is small, doesnt have such a huge GDP, but has huge debt, so imo bond vultures could attack it easily. But right now it is just easier to spank PIIGS.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,858
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:03am Nov 21, 2011 1:03am
Quoting FX Tsunami
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc3sK...eature=related

This is really crazy. Now i have a question, What is the need of Gov't??

God damn these bankers making fool of the whole world. No debt No money... sounds like hell....Where all these are gonna end??? I dont really understand why should i make money and pay to those **** (sorry PT)
I am assuming you found it educational. I found watching it a second and third time also useful. And the Money Masters is another excellent video.

This whole presentation is deeply flawed in the basic assumption that
debt is bad. Debt is like food. It is a necessary part of our system without which our system would die. However too much debt, like too much food, is hazardous to health.

I am not sure I understand your question about government.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,859
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:04am Nov 21, 2011 1:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I think you must be mistaken. Bloomberg only provides 15 mins delayed data for free. Good enough for me for the mid term and long term decisions.

Could you post the link? Btw, I am using this site, as there are all charts from Bloomberg at the same page.

http://workforall.net/CDS-Credit-default-Swaps.html

T

It's a Bloomberg application for smartphones...

So, i check the bond rates from my cell only...It's covers all the markets from currencies to equities to bonds etc...

and the app is free...
  • #10,860
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:08am Nov 21, 2011 1:08am
Quoting AaronWard
I am assuming you found it educational. I found watching it a second and third time also useful. And the Money Masters is another excellent video.

This whole presentation is deeply flawed in the basic assumption is
debt is bad. Debt is like food. It is a necessary part of our system without which our system would die. However too much debt, like too much food, is hazardous to health.

I am not sure I understand your question about government.

About government, i was just wondering the whole banking system could control everything in respective countries, then what is the need for them.

And i know i would watch it again, could have missed something.

Will take a look at money masters too
56 traders viewing now