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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #10,821
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:50am Nov 21, 2011 1:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
Attachment

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so whers teh bull? also in hibernatioN? bulls dont hibernate!

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,822
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:52am Nov 21, 2011 1:52am
Quoting PipTrapper

That's because this is not the porn channel.
As I said... what wrong
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,823
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:53am Nov 21, 2011 1:53am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
... Nevertheless, you can invest is lots of assets, you can hedge, you can leverage almost all assets....
Good morning,

I am just following yesterdays evening thought about where to get money. They cant hedge, since they destroyed CDS . Brilliant move indeed. Anyway, that gold leveraging idea is a nice one.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,824
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:03am Nov 21, 2011 2:03am
Quoting knoholygrail
I have no link since it came from the report I am reading however it is brief and needs to be revealed to everyone.

Good Night

A new amendment to the Dodd-Frank Bill (aka FinReg Bill) forced the first audit ever by the GAO (Government Accountability Office). The added clause with teeth was due to work by Ron Paul, Alan Grayson, Jim DeMint, and Bernie Sanders. USFed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and numerous high ranking bankers vehemently opposed the audit. The culpable always object to sunlight. They distorted to the extreme both...
Now that is something for Fool, so I am quoting it for the case you werent here yesterday.

Edit: Ah, what a pointless quote, you managed to write only one page since yesterday
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,825
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:05am Nov 21, 2011 2:05am
Quoting FX Tsunami
Now, where is all those money??
IMF, ECB, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Bank of China, Goldman Sachs ....
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,826
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:06am Nov 21, 2011 2:06am
Quoting bumapatria
so whers teh bull? also in hibernatioN? bulls dont hibernate!

The bear has not gone far. Just went for an appetizer. Now he's back. The bulls are still locked in the paddock with the chickens.

Today is pretty well a non-news day, but I still expect some selling pressure within a range unless all hell breaks loose. I have my eyes on bond spreads this morning. So far they seem to be widening.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,827
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:10am Nov 21, 2011 2:10am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
IMF, ECB, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Bank of China, Goldman Sachs ....


  • #10,828
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:14am Nov 21, 2011 2:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have my eyes on bond spreads this morning. So far they seem to be widening.
You paid for real time datafeed or are you watching Bloomberg bond yields like me?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,829
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:19am Nov 21, 2011 2:19am
I have next level of tp at 34578 and bear just stopped one pip away and turned his back on me. Please continue Mr. Bear, winter is coming and I need to warm up, energy costs are rising.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,830
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:20am Nov 21, 2011 2:20am
Hey PT, I have been thinking about the question of how much of the Forex market is controlled by speculators. I approached it from another angle and come up with the following answer:

1. 4 Trillion daily turnover with about 25% in the Euro/USD pair means about 1 Trillion daily turnover.
2. 365 days -52 weekends = about 260 market days.
3. So 260 X 1 trillion means that over a year the market purchases over 260 trillion Euros with USD (this does not count any other currency transaction such as EUR/YEN)
4. The GDP of Europe is about 16 trillion. So, using just the USD, market participants purchase more than 16X the entire GDP of Europe.

Conclusion: there is no way that European importers and exporters need to purchase even 100% of GDP of EUROs a year. So clearly the vast majority must be speculators.

Any flaws?

Also I am curious. Why do you say capital and volume are different. Or rather (I know what the two terms mean) why is this distinction important?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,831
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:21am Nov 21, 2011 2:21am
3 longs opened at 1.3492, 1.3476 and 1.3464, TP at 1.3560. Let's see if this plays out nicely... So far looks like the bulls are doing whatever they want

ADD: should have been the "bears". The bears are doing whatever they want. The bulls ain't doing nothing )
  • #10,832
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:24am Nov 21, 2011 2:24am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
You paid for real time datafeed or are you watching Bloomberg bond yields like me?
JNo, paying for real time is a waste of money unless you are actively trading bonds or bond futures.
I use Bloomberg 15 minute delayed.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,833
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:30am Nov 21, 2011 2:30am
Quoting AaronWard
Hey PT, I have been thinking about the question of how much of the Forex market is controlled by speculators. I approached it from another angle and come up with the following answer:

1. 4 Trillion daily turnover with about 25% in the Euro/USD pair means about 1 Trillion daily turnover.
2. 365 days -52 weekends = about 260 market days.
3. So 260 X 1 trillion means that over a year the market purchases over 260 trillion Euros with USD (this does not count any other currency transaction such as EUR/YEN)
4. The GDP of Europe is about 16 trillion....

The only thing I could add is that GDP is a measure of final consumption, so it doesn't take into account those screws and bolts that went into making the car you drive, or the steel producer it comes from etc etc.. There is a long supply chain to assemble everything, and only the final value that the consumer spends is counted.

So all those transactions in between would make up a fair whack IMHO, just like the actual nominal amount of money swapped about in the Forex market is not quite the same as the total amount from transactions over the year.

Does that make sense?
"Don't Panic..."
  • #10,834
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:31am Nov 21, 2011 2:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
JNo, paying for real time...
Same here. Spain and Belgium are not looking well. Spain doesnt have such a huge deficit, but those yield are starting to look nasty. I wonder when news headlines start ass spanking of Belgium, they have 110 % debt of GDP and bond yields are bubbling towards 5% now.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,835
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:33am Nov 21, 2011 2:33am
Quoting michaelnew
3 longs opened at 1.3492, 1.3476 and 1.3464, TP at 1.3560. Let's see if this plays out nicely... So far looks like the bulls are doing whatever they want

ADD: should have been the "bears". The bears are doing whatever they want. The bulls ain't doing nothing )
I don't care what anybody says... there is no way that this is a high probability long set up on the 5 min charts.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,836
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:35am Nov 21, 2011 2:35am
Quoting AaronWard

Conclusion: there is no way that European importers and exporters need to purchase even 100% of GDP of EUROs a year. So clearly the vast majority must be speculators.

Any flaws?

Also I am curious. Why do you say capital and volume are different. Or rather (I know what the two terms mean) why is this distinction important?
I don't see any flaws in that logic although the 25% figure is an assumption allbeit a fair one.

as for the difference between volume and capital, here it is.
Volume is the total number of purchases and sales of a particular instrument. , whereas capital is the total value of any such purchases and sales.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,837
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:35am Nov 21, 2011 2:35am
Quoting AaronWard
I don't care what anybody says... there is no way that this is a high probability long set up on the 5 min charts.
thats a heck load of sell orders
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,838
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:41am Nov 21, 2011 2:41am
Quoting AaronWard
Any flaws?
The difference is that GDP is a total income, while turnover is just turnover. You yourself click sell, buy, sell, buy, sell, buy and each and every of these clicks is counted in a turnover in the size of the lots you are trading. So if you are trading standard lots and do three trades a day, you just turned over 300 000 EUR, while your income is much much lower. GDP just cant be compared to turnover and turnover of Europe would be much higher than 260 Tr. It would be very interesting to count it though.

Nevertheless, while talking about speculators, I would be much more interested how much do speculators affect bond yields. You see (and this is kind of a conspirational theory) US is debted like hell, but has yields around 2%. And I think it is because those bond vultures cooperate with FED, so they wont attack US. They could be selling US bonds already, but they just dont.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,839
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:42am Nov 21, 2011 2:42am
Quoting Halifax
The only thing I could add is that GDP is a measure of final consumption, so it doesn't take into account those screws and bolts that went into making the car you drive, or the steel producer it comes from etc etc.. There is a long supply chain to assemble everything, and only the final value that the consumer spends is counted.

So all those transactions in between would make up a fair whack IMHO, just like the actual nominal amount of money swapped about in the Forex market is not quite the same as the total amount from transactions over the year.

Does...
yeah, it does. But even if every good and service entered and left Europe twice, the Forex market is still 8X bigger.

A bolt built in China that goes to Germany to become a car part and then returns to China as a car will only cross the border twice.

Further, importers and exports only really need to change their "imbalance". They buy 5000 USD of parts and then sell 10000 USD of car... means that their imbalance is only 5000 USD.

But to be fair, the multiplier is tricky and I don't have any real data on it.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,840
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:43am Nov 21, 2011 2:43am
Had a strange start today, dax30 bluffed me 2 times. When eurusd falled like a rock, dax30 did almost nothing, that made me a bit careful and secured my posisions almost immediately when I had a change but it took me out.
1 position open:
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