EurAnalysis | Page 536 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #10,701
  • Nov 20, 2011 6:40am Nov 20, 2011 6:40am
Quoting bumapatria
yep. that is i believe going to drop below the compressed period to the low of the demand zones

im seeing possible used up demand therefore a drop to ur blue line should be possible. i do not know the formula but i know that (i think) 50% OF dx is made from eur usd rates.
Not sure what you mean by that. From what I know, each USD pair (6 of them) in the basket is equally weighted and averaged.
If you are suggesting that the EUR/USD has more of an influence on the DX, then I agree as the EUR/USD is more heavily traded than the other pairs.

Just for show, I have vertically flipped a DX daily chart to compare against the EUR/USD daily chart. Slight difference but pretty much inversely correlated.

.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx-d1-inv.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-d1.gif Size: 16 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,702
  • Nov 20, 2011 6:59am Nov 20, 2011 6:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
Not sure what you mean by that. From what I know, each USD pair (6 of them) in the basket is equally weighted and averaged.
If you are suggesting that the EUR/USD has more of an influence on the DX, then I agree as the EUR/USD is more heavily traded than the other pairs.

Just for show, I have vertically flipped a DX daily chart to compare against the EUR/USD daily chart. Slight difference but pretty much inversely correlated.

.
hell that looks f-ing cool!

hehehe never looked at it that way
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,703
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:13am Nov 20, 2011 7:13am
Quoting PipTrapper
Not sure what you mean by that. From what I know, each USD pair (6 of them) in the basket is equally weighted and averaged.
If you are suggesting that the EUR/USD has more of an influence on the DX, then I agree as the EUR/USD is more heavily traded than the other pairs.

.
USDX is a trade-weighted index. Even though they are equally weighted the trade size is what really matters. That's why eur and jpy have the most impact and mainly determine the direction of the USDX.
  • #10,704
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:17am Nov 20, 2011 7:17am
Quoting bumapatria
forget last time lets move on.


i wouldnt do anything just yet technically on the euro maybe a tiny long scalp.. NO!. must resist long...


okay seriously speaking price based on my master chart should retrace as per what i think to the red ellipse to the 45 angle. 45 has a tendency to be a magnet angular trendline either bearish or bullish it has a sort of magnet to the vibrato of the market.

we have bullish divergence so far on h4

so i say im going long till 3600

or if there is some other setups ill scalp the market or see...

Honestly, i have absolutely no freaking idea what that chart is supposed to tell ...And thus i can come up to zero logical conclusions of why it should move EURUSD.

If i had to quess then i would say that it isn't technical analysis. It can have some sort of paranormal, supernatural, out of space, parallel-universe kind of impact on the market.

Can you explain the logic behind this chart as to WHY this kind of drawing would lead to the imbalance between supply and demand of a currency ?

much appreciated.
  • #10,705
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:23am Nov 20, 2011 7:23am
G1 – Today, I will abstract from pure statistics, and make an attempt to use MS paint to show visual expression of cycles I am looking at. And we are going down. It is needed to say here that I still miss last wave up, but I just assume it will come later from 1,3 area.
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: G1 - 19.11..png Size: 83 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,706
  • Edited 7:48am Nov 20, 2011 7:24am | Edited 7:48am
G2 – First break of bullish correction was from the peak at 1,423. This superweak trend had strenght of 105% which was not very convincing. After week of meddling in 1,364 - 1,384, we finally experienced strong trend down with strenght of 165%, only to retrace back to 1,38 on Veteran Fryday, which was 90%. I still dont give much of a value to this move since US markets were closed. At start of this week it already seemd bears are going to run strong down, but managed to close only at 1,3434, which was 120% down. Kinda weak trend I say. Right now, we are at 1,352, which is about 92% of this minor cycle. Very good start for break.
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: G2 - 20,11.png Size: 62 KB
Attached Image
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,707
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:24am Nov 20, 2011 7:24am
Conclusion

G1 – Still in a very strong downtrend and still waiting for a last bullish wave up before capitulation.

G2 – Bulls managed to guard 1,3495 on Friday. This point will be the key for domination of bears next week.

Weekly candle is a nice one bearish candle.

To run through 1,3495 and 1,3457 waiting below, bears could use some momentum. This could be after retest of 3610 or even 3630. My tactic is short like a moron everything below 3610, as I aint missing the submarine.

Good luck all,

T.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1.gif Size: 23 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,708
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:27am Nov 20, 2011 7:27am
Quoting lumesh
USDX is a trade-weighted index. Even though they are equally weighted the trade size is what really matters. That's why eur and jpy have the most impact and mainly determine the direction of the USDX.
Because the Euro has so much influence with the USDX, it is hard to read what is a Euro move, and what is a USD move on either chart. So I go to the GDP/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GDP,EUR/CAD charts. It only takes a few seconds and confirms if the USD is moving or the Euro is moving.

If the USD is moving, then I say watch out. I remain bearish on the Euro, but the USD will drive this pair more than the Euro will.

I also look at the S&P charts during the NY session. What I watch for are specific things such as strong momentum and chart patterns such as double tops. EUR/USD will follow strong moves off of this chart.

This may seem like a lot of work, but really, even on the 5 min chart you have a lot of spare time to burn between bar formation.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,709
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:28am Nov 20, 2011 7:28am
hmm tom are those charts on top ur selfmade analysis? interesting view i would say

im impressed if those were self made
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,710
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:35am Nov 20, 2011 7:35am
Quoting bumapatria
hmm tom are those charts on top ur selfmade analysis?...
I am glad you like it. I did my best in MS paint . I have all my charts around me, in fact whole my room is totally overfilled with charts.

Unfortunately, it is too hard to get it into computer, I just draw it with pencil and count it in excel. I made this for you guys, coz I need someone who tears it apart, so I can evolve my system.

Btw, I am really glad you aint angry like on friday. It would be shame if you stopped posting.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,711
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:38am Nov 20, 2011 7:38am
@tom, nice job man, ill look forward for more of ur cycle work. very interested in differnet techniques
we have done the mirror cycle aka the move of time that happened last.

last bull swing was 16 daily bars.

thsi downtrend move was 16 bars and failed pullback as this may be on daily we could see minor uptrend.



to me thats a long signal.

27 days should give a clear signal.

next ill post dates that are must watch dates.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mirror.gif Size: 20 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,712
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:54am Nov 20, 2011 7:54am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Jupiter retrograde will be right after US mandatory budget cuts. I think we will experience this:
so that would mean....... 1.1000?



ill watch PA on my side.

hey fundies pros any thoughts on those budget cuts?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,713
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:08am Nov 20, 2011 8:08am
Hah, I made a mistake, coz I remembered Thanksgiving, but I dont know US holidays. So it is this week . Bearish week. And I hold loads and loads of beatifull shorts. Hmm, yummy.

Well, this is what PK said about that. PK who calls himself tech trader with no fundies knowledge while filling each and every of his posts with fundies informations.

T

Quoting PipKiller
Thank you Tom. Remember it's good to keep an eye on everything but trade what is real, not what you feel.

Here's a little bit on the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction AKA the congressional "Super Commitee". There's info all over the net about them. The decision is duel Nov 23rd... The day before thanksgiving.

Speaking of "Thanksgiving" the US dollar often gets stuffed on thanksgiving day. That'll keep ya busy charting the...
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,714
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:14am Nov 20, 2011 8:14am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hah, I made a mistake, coz I remembered Thanksgiving, but I dont know US holidays. So it is this week . Bearish week. And I hold loads and loads of beatifull shorts. Hmm, yummy.

Well, this is what PK said about that. PK who calls himself tech trader with no fundies knowledge while filling each and every of his posts with fundies informations.

T
lets make a friendly bet.
im long u short. or who can make more success going one side? well i cant come up with something good.. Tom help me out..

u trade live?

i do.

lets go baby

lets keep it friendly competition and friendly okaay?

accept?

-buma
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,715
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:30am Nov 20, 2011 8:30am
Bets I hear?? Yeah, that's cool. Can I throw in 10 bucks on the up? I have a feeling it's gonna rally next week.

Quoting bumapatria
lets make a friendly bet.
im long u short. or who can make more success going one side? well i cant come up with something good.. Tom help me out..

u trade live?

i do.

lets go baby

lets keep it friendly competition and friendly okaay?

accept?

-buma
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #10,716
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:36am Nov 20, 2011 8:36am
Friday's close from forex.com at 5pm is 1.35242.

I just placed a limit sell order on the EurUsd just it case it opens on a spike up. I placed it at the 200 period sma on the 1 hour chart around 1.3594, if it hits it, should occur around 5pm EST to 9pm EST tonight I'm thinking. If it doesn't trigger, I will cancel it and look for an overbought condition at a lower price. That's how I'm thinking right now. Thoughts?
  • #10,717
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:43am Nov 20, 2011 8:43am
Quoting spekitox
Bets I hear?? Yeah, that's cool. Can I throw in 10 bucks on the up? I have a feeling it's gonna rally next week.
its not liek we can recieve the pots but lets just see u know for fun
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,718
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:45am Nov 20, 2011 8:45am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Buma, I am almost always friendly. The only exception is when someone insults my friends or my family, like mla did.

You see, I dwell in my self confidence and superiority so deeply, I cant be angry on anyone. I will use a nice one statement and please dont stone me to death for this one.
"God cant be angry on his children, as they are only children."

Regarding the bet, I think there will be retest of 3610. And I am willing to dive up to 3666, possibly to 3689, coz I just dont see PA going any higher. So the bet is pointless, since we can...
just remember trading is like this to me: Ur stop loss is my take profit.

so dont have stop losses!

hahahha

okay tom, load up. but isnt it better to load up when ure in profit?

another exotic style im seeing. cool
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,719
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:51am Nov 20, 2011 8:51am
Quoting nyfx718
.... If it doesn't trigger, I will cancel it and look for an overbought condition at a lower price. That's how I'm thinking right now. Thoughts?
Depends on your system. If it works, good for you. It is hard for anyone to tell if it is good entry or not. We dont know your SL, RR ratio, TP. But even if we knew that, it is still almost impossible to evaluate someones system from one entry. I will be glad if you keep posting here and I will be able to look how your system works in the long run.

Many people use 200 SMA or EMA. I use S/R to place trades as I consider all moving averages lagging and distracting you from the real PA.

But as I said, lots of people use them, so their effect is kind of self fulfilling, as with all technical indicators.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,720
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:54am Nov 20, 2011 8:54am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Depends on your system. If it works, good for you. It is hard for anyone to tell if it is good entry or not. We dont know your SL, RR ratio, TP. But even if we knew that, it is still almost impossible to evaluate someones system from one entry. I will be glad if you keep posting here and I will be able to look how your system works in the long run.

Many people use 200 SMA or EMA. I use S/R to place trades as I consider all moving averages lagging and distracting you from the real PA.

But as I said, lots of people use them, so their effect is kind...
damn it i have to revouch for u.

true PA assassin speaking here.

an assassin knows another
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
220 traders viewing now