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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #10,601
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:07am Nov 18, 2011 10:07am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Is there not a "all of the above" in this multiple choice test?
Either way it is short Euro.
Therefore the question is rhetorical.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,602
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:16am Nov 18, 2011 10:16am
True, I'll take 1.34ish too

Quoting PipTrapper
That would be nice but we still have that hard nut to crack at 1.34
  • #10,603
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:19am Nov 18, 2011 10:19am
Where do all these numbers come from? I often see ppl post different sets of numbers and blindly set their limit or stop orders around them but I'm not seeing any commentary around utilizing oscillators to indicate overbought or oversold conditions to time their entry or exit better.

Quoting deepahsadh
pivot 1.364
our preference short position below 1.348 &1.342.5 in extenion alternate scenario above 1.364 look for further upside with1.369 & 1.379 as target
  • #10,604
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:19am Nov 18, 2011 10:19am
The pressure on the ECB to resolve this crisis is reaching a tipping point. Something has to give, either the ECB cracks or the EUR. Place your bets!

As its a Friday afternoon and we all know how these guys like to thow curved balls over weekends and holidays, I think Kenny Rogers's great song The Gambler should be top of this afternoons music....

Inserted Video
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,605
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:23am Nov 18, 2011 10:23am
GOOD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting PipTrapper

Instead Of Relenting To Demands To Let ECB Print, Germany Is Preparing To Kick Countries Out Of Eurozone
not euphoria follower
  • #10,606
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:29am Nov 18, 2011 10:29am
I'm also considering the fact that the longs will be taking their profits off the table and running with it instead of risking it over the weekend. This was a nice ride up giving longs a chance to either take profits or reduce their losses drastically and pack up for the weekend, so I'm thinking as we head closer to NY close, we'll see the price drift or accelerate lower due to more longs taking money off the table versus shorts. The shorts will be more comfortable holding into weekend and just placing a stop just in case. Thoughts?

Quoting lumesh
Now, if we should go lower then the point of interest would be 3450-3440....basically the same scenario i mentioned earlier today about the 3550-3560 level. Since it's friday, anything can happen and i wouldn't be surprised if we saw the break of 3440...but we'll need the risk-off support from equities. Dunno how likely that is...
  • #10,607
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:30am Nov 18, 2011 10:30am
Quoting BullsVsBears
Jack of many trades I see
Yea. My real passion is metal fabrication, autobody and custom paint and I'm a very good mechanic. I have a 1955 Ford C500 COE cab that I'm getting ready to slap onto a 2000 E450 ambulance chassis as soon as the power company hooks up power to my new work shop.

I don't care so much for wood working but I can do it fairly well and am too cheap to hire it out unless it's something I can't physically do myself.

I'm very picky about how I want things done and have a general distrust for hiring people that I don't know will do it right the first time.

I have a very short list of only 5 people I will hire to do anything for me and it took me 25 years to get to 5.... and only 3 live in this area.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #10,608
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:31am Nov 18, 2011 10:31am
With all the fuss going on today, I have missed m y opportunity to get my short position in place at the high. That will serve as a lesson to me that it is more important to focus on my charts than on trying to be a referee. Damn
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,609
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:36am Nov 18, 2011 10:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
With all the fuss going on today, I have missed m y opportunity to get my short position in place at the high. That will serve as a lesson to me that it is more important to focus on my charts than on trying to be a referee. Damn
I'm sorry. You want some of mine




EDIT: FORGOT CHART
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  • #10,610
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:38am Nov 18, 2011 10:38am
I got fortunate or lucky or blessed or something today, because I literally woke up and made a decision to get out my bed for work and pulled up the charts on my phone at around 7:30ish while I was still sorta laying down in bed and the setup was right there staring me in the face, price being right near the high allowing me to feel comfortable enough to take the short before my feet touched the floor. So far, I'm feeling very thankful for the day.

Quoting PipTrapper
With all the fuss going on today, I have missed m y opportunity to get my short position in place at the high. That will serve as a lesson to me that it is more important to focus on my charts than on trying to be a referee. Damn
  • #10,611
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:40am Nov 18, 2011 10:40am
Quoting Gofer Pips
I'm sorry. You want some of mine




EDIT: FORGOT CHART
Rub it in
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,612
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:41am Nov 18, 2011 10:41am
If we break to the lower low, the situation is quite clear. If we don't, I would not be rushing in with conclusions, this weeks ending is just too weird. Weekly confirms downtrend, but daily does not indicate huge selloffs on Monday... at least not yet.

But if we take into consideration stocks and commodities, outlook is rather bearish. Technically most of these things seem to be in a downtrend, or to just have broken the uptrend. Some ranging might occur, though. If it gets so, It will be a great opportunity to try out THV on demo

I think EUR is waiting for some news to resume sinking; if it sunk without an excuse it would look shameful for average, non-trading people .
  • #10,613
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:47am Nov 18, 2011 10:47am
Quoting nyfx718
I'm also considering the fact that the longs will be taking their profits off the table and running with it instead of risking it over the weekend. This was a nice ride up giving longs a chance to either take profits or reduce their losses drastically and pack up for the weekend, so I'm thinking as we head closer to NY close, we'll see the price drift or accelerate lower due to more longs taking money off the table versus shorts. The shorts will be more comfortable holding into weekend and just placing a stop just in case. Thoughts?
After a big run down this week I was expecting to see more of a short covering rally like last Friday before downtrend continues next week. Of course the bears are strong right now, so you may be right about longs continuing to close positions. Also, if Dow turns down this afternoon then we could see more shorting into close. I covered my short position for the week just in case any big news over weekend.
  • #10,614
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:47am Nov 18, 2011 10:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
With all the fuss going on today, I have missed m y opportunity to get my short position in place at the high. That will serve as a lesson to me that it is more important to focus on my charts than on trying to be a referee. Damn
I know how you feel, running a thread can have a serious impact on your trading and I hope that your warnings result in more quality posts.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,615
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:49am Nov 18, 2011 10:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
With all the fuss going on today, I have missed m y opportunity to get my short position in place at the high. That will serve as a lesson to me that it is more important to focus on my charts than on trying to be a referee. Damn
There are always more setups. Of that you can be sure. I also missed out on taking a short at the 50% fib @3615. Price got to 3613 on my feed then dropped. See what next week brings.
  • #10,616
  • Nov 18, 2011 11:04am Nov 18, 2011 11:04am
OK, I lied. I can't help myself. Long E$ again. Might burn my fingers on this one but nothing ventured nothing gained (nothing lost either LOL)

London close. Price looks like it wants to pull up a bit. Some divergence earlier on 5 minute, fast TRIX back green and price closed above cloud. 15 minute Fast trix closed up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: thv3 5 minute long.gif Size: 27 KB
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #10,617
  • Nov 18, 2011 11:04am Nov 18, 2011 11:04am
Adressing the question. Who will crack the ECB or the Euro.
When Germany signed on they did not sign up to have the Drachma or Lira as a base currency.

They have made a good faith effort to be a partner for a United Europe.

But they will walk on the Euro project push comes to shove if Brussels turns it into a redistribution mechanism.
The conflict is real and it will end that way.
If as the market believes the ECB will print, then Germany is out.
If the ECB does not, then default is coming to Europe.

To date the structural problem of a house built upon a foundation of sand has not been resolved.

The Bond markets are being held together by very weak cement. More then likely the biggest players are not willing to realize loss so they find themselves trapped. But if this keeps deteriorating at some point fracture.
  • #10,618
  • Nov 18, 2011 11:06am Nov 18, 2011 11:06am
Quoting picon1
There are always more setups. Of that you can be sure. I also missed out on taking a short at the 50% fib @3615. Price got to 3613 on my feed then dropped. See what next week brings.
Oh well. We live and learn. I had my sell limit at 1.3640 just to keep it a bit out of the way so I can manually enter upon PA confirmation at around 1.3605 (which is where I wanted to short), and then if it kept going I would automatically trigger just before the 1.3650 resistance (10 pips lower in case it pulled back early).

Anyway, maybe we will get a bounce to 1.3550 before NY close. Not looking that way right now though. Regardless, I still have 4 floating shorts so I'm all good. I was just hoping to get one in the 1.36xx region so I can close my 1.34xx ones once they come into the green. My 1.37xx shorts are permanent fixtures for now so worst case, at least I have them.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,619
  • Nov 18, 2011 11:07am Nov 18, 2011 11:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
With all the fuss going on today, I have missed m y opportunity to get my short position in place at the high. That will serve as a lesson to me that it is more important to focus on my charts than on trying to be a referee. Damn
And I cleared all limits on live today (forgot about it yesterday) so 1.36 limit did not get triggered cause I removed it 5 min before the spike that would be around 100 pips in the bank for cheering up, such "after leaving gift"

But I expected possibility of higher retracement today, so If it got triggered I would probably have problem to just hold it patiently. And once the decision was made to stop trading live, I should obey it until I will crash / double some demo accounts
  • #10,620
  • Nov 18, 2011 11:09am Nov 18, 2011 11:09am
Exited all my shorts @ 1.3502, banked 40 something pips, missed the short @ 1.36. Can't wait anymore, have a nice weekends guys, I'm off to bed, 4 am already.
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