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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #10,581
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:05am Nov 18, 2011 9:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have an announcement to make.

I just spent much of my time submitting cleanup reports for those offensive and disruptive posts.

I ask those of you who responded to any of them to please take some time to delete your responses.

Unfortunately I have had to temporarily place Bumapatria and mla on the iggy list for now. I have respect for them but I cannot condone their behavior and I have to enforce the rules.

Buma and mla, I'm sorry but I gave you fair warning.

I want to take this unfortunate opportunity to impress upon everyone...
I agree... Great platform and thanks for your superb analysis
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #10,582
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:07am Nov 18, 2011 9:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have an announcement to make.

I just spent much of my time submitting cleanup reports for those offensive and disruptive posts.

I ask those of you who responded to any of them to please take some time to delete your responses.

Unfortunately I have had to temporarily place Bumapatria and mla on the iggy list for now. I have respect for them but I cannot condone their behavior and I have to enforce the rules.

Buma and mla, I'm sorry but I gave you fair warning.

I want to take this unfortunate opportunity to impress upon everyone that such...
Hey PT, You are my hero.

Seriously, there is a lot at stake when it comes to enforcing the civility rules. It may seem like a minor point, but it is so easy to see so many threads that are a desert wasteland of noise and negativity.

Aaron
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,583
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:09am Nov 18, 2011 9:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have an announcement to make.

I just spent much of my time submitting cleanup reports for those offensive and disruptive posts.

I ask those of you who responded to any of them to please take some time to delete your responses.

Unfortunately I have had to temporarily place Bumapatria and mla on the iggy list for now. I have respect for them but I cannot condone their behavior and I have to enforce the rules.

Buma and mla, I'm sorry but I gave you fair warning.

I want to take this unfortunate opportunity to impress upon everyone...
No Problem - Action need to be take
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #10,584
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:10am Nov 18, 2011 9:10am
shorts fired off at 1.3554, 1.3588 and 1.3605 except 1.3654 and 1.3705 and now in profit and hoping it holds through London close with profit-taking before weekend!
  • #10,585
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:11am Nov 18, 2011 9:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
I just spent much of my time submitting cleanup reports for those offensive and disruptive posts.
Now.. let's do some analysis.
I'm back
My dog's fine
And it's Friday

Perfect time to see what happened and what to expect next.

I didn't have much time to trade, but when I jumped in ANY position I noticed that market was not moving "right", my defition of right.

It was too spiky, this 5mins it was dropping like traders are moving on the right place, and the next 5min it was 20 pips above that first selloff.

I supposed it was caused by comments... so let's find out.... Nothing.
I could call this calm before a storm, but this isn't calm at all

So, I'll have to read some articles, read some news, catch up with what happened this week, and what's going to happen next.

Pbh
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  • #10,586
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:12am Nov 18, 2011 9:12am
I'm done for the week. Time to finish the mud work on the new sheet rock in my office so I can put up the crown molding, baseboards and paint.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #10,587
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:13am Nov 18, 2011 9:13am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have an announcement to make.

I just spent much of my time submitting cleanup reports for those offensive and disruptive posts.

I ask those of you who responded to any of them to please take some time to delete your responses.

Unfortunately I have had to temporarily place Bumapatria and mla on the iggy list for now. I have respect for them but I cannot condone their behavior and I have to enforce the rules.

Buma and mla, I'm sorry but I gave you fair warning.

I want to take this unfortunate opportunity to impress upon everyone that...
I just want you to know that I appreciate all the work and effort you have put in to give us all a safe place to post and share knowledge.

You handled the matter with great leadership. I hope my grandson Buma will behave in future and as well mla who I do not know.

Anytime I can be of help to you please let me know. Have a nice weekend and now I am off to the show. Take care and be well and "Job Well Done"
  • #10,588
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:15am Nov 18, 2011 9:15am
As I pointed in my previous message, the speed and consistency of the rally were not impressive, here's the M30 chart showing how the steep uptrend has been broken. I still believe there's time to break under 1.34 today. We'll see.
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  • #10,589
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:16am Nov 18, 2011 9:16am
Looks like we're back to where we were before that regurgitated rumour re ECB/IMF loans ... achieved it's purpose & Job done I suppose?
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The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #10,590
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:23am Nov 18, 2011 9:23am
Quoting PipKiller
I'm done for the week. Time to finish the mud work on the new sheet rock in my office so I can put up the crown molding, baseboards and paint.
Jack of many trades I see
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #10,591
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:24am Nov 18, 2011 9:24am
Quoting CommercialB
Looks like we're back to where we were before that regurgitated rumour re ECB/IMF loans ... achieved it's purpose & Job done I suppose?
I agree job is done.

Also note that the SP500 failed to break above the previous support turned resistance.

Looks like it is once again down from here.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,592
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:26am Nov 18, 2011 9:26am
Quoting CommercialB
Looks like we're back to where we were before that regurgitated rumour re ECB/IMF loans ... achieved it's purpose & Job done I suppose?
Its hard not to suspect the bears of foul play. They jacked it up, and got some better entries, and now they are crashing it...

Lets see if it can break 1.3400.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,593
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:28am Nov 18, 2011 9:28am
Took a short this morning 7:30ish EST at 1.3602. Comon' US dollar!!!! Keep falling EURUSD!!! Let's fall 300 pips today!!!!
  • #10,594
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:32am Nov 18, 2011 9:32am
Quoting nyfx718
Took a short this morning 7:30ish EST at 1.3602. Comon' US dollar!!!! Keep falling EURUSD!!! Let's fall 300 pips today!!!!
That would be nice but we still have that hard nut to crack at 1.34
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,595
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:32am Nov 18, 2011 9:32am
pivot 1.364
our preference short position below 1.348 &1.342.5 in extenion alternate scenario above 1.364 look for further upside with1.369 & 1.379 as target
  • #10,596
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:35am Nov 18, 2011 9:35am
Now, if we should go lower then the point of interest would be 3450-3440....basically the same scenario i mentioned earlier today about the 3550-3560 level. Since it's friday, anything can happen and i wouldn't be surprised if we saw the break of 3440...but we'll need the risk-off support from equities. Dunno how likely that is...
  • #10,597
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:36am Nov 18, 2011 9:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
I agree job is done.

Also note that the SP500 failed to break above the previous support turned resistance.

Looks like it is once again down from here.

.
From Reuters this morn
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-...10225.html?l=1
Excerpt "Wall Street stocks rose in early trading on Friday after Europe's debt crisis drove heavy market losses this week, with the S&P 500 falling through important technical levels and facing another key test of strength. Selling on Thursday afternoon pushed the S&P 500 through a support level at around 1,230. The next key test will be whether the index can hold its 50-day moving average just above 1,200, possibly setting the stage for a bounce if it does."
...(your 1230 support turned resistance)
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #10,598
  • Edited 9:59am Nov 18, 2011 9:39am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting lumesh
Now, if we should go lower then the point of interest would be 3450-3440....basically the same scenario i mentioned earlier today about the 3550-3560 level. Since it's friday, anything can happen and i wouldn't be surprised if we saw the break of 3440...but we'll need the risk-off support from equities. Dunno how likely that is...
Some hope... we have this beautiful descending channel.

BTW -- it is a five day chart.

Edit More rumors have driven stocks up.

BOSTON, Nov 18 (IFR) -
* Stocks and yields are surging to new highs on a think-tank report saying that the ECB is considering buying unlimited or at least vastly larger amounts of PIIGS sovereigns - this idea stands in direct contrast to an earlier FAZ article that said the ECB would limit SMP purchases to Euro20 bln per week (so far there has only been one week that exceeded Euro20 bln and there total stands at Euro187 bln).
Attached Image
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,599
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:57am Nov 18, 2011 9:57am
DPA: Germany Confirms It Is Considering More Orderly Defaults

Wait, I though Greece was a one-off! Was I lied to?
DPA, the German press agency, confirms that the German foreign ministry has prepared a paper laying out the possibility of more orderly defaults in the euro zone for euro members that are unable to achieve debt sustainability.
The orderly default mechanism should come into existence along with the ESM in 2013, the paper says. Many have been trying to accelerate the introduction of the ESM to 2012. Perhaps now we know why…
Can’t say I’d be all that excited to buy Italian debt if I’m just gonna take a haircut

Instead Of Relenting To Demands To Let ECB Print, Germany Is Preparing To Kick Countries Out Of Eurozone

It's official - Germany has become just like China (or, rather, has always been like it): the more it is pushed to do something (let ECB print), the more it will do the opposite. Half a year ago we discussed that the weakest point of the European bailout language was its reliance on Collective Action Clauses which imply that any resolution which does not have 100% backing of all bondholders would potentially push a country into default. In essence, this took control out of the hands of the Eurozone head, Germany, and put it to the bondholders. Well, according to a preliminary draft released by the Telegraph and FT, as part of the new bailout 'indenture' contained in the ESM, "under a section headed “The establishment of a procedure for an orderly default as part of the ESM”, Berlin makes clear that countries which are deemed to be insolvent – rather than just suffering a temporary loss of access to the financial markets – would be allowed, in effect, to declare bankruptcy and default on their bonds: If [a debt sustainability review] is negative, the affected member state would instead receive loans for a limited time only, during which the procedure for an orderly default would be prepared. In order to make sovereign defaults possible where they are unavoidable, the threat of instability in the financial system resulting from such a default must be able to be credibly excluded. A plan to maintain the stability of the financial system in the event of an orderly default needs to be developed in close co-operation with European banking regulators. This would determine which banks would be restructured and/or recapitalised, which will necessitate the drawing up of Europe-wide rules on bank restructuring." And as we discussed previously, the voluntary language will likely be taken out from the final draft, effectively giving Germany the unilateral ability to kick countries out. Which explains why the market is about to plunge: according to just released information from DPA, "the German Foreign Ministry on Friday confirmed that Germany was considering the possibility of more eurozone "orderly defaults" beyond that of Greece, as suggested by a paper leaked by the British press." In essence, what this means is that instead of relenting on the ECB issue, which as every investment bank has said would be the end of the world unless massive printing is permitted, Germany would rather kick countries out of the Eurozone instead of entering a hyperinflationary collapse. Perhaps it is now time for the banks to start toning down their language on the imminent destruction that would ensue if the ECB does not print, as this is apparently not happening... more...

ECB or the EUR to Crack?

With little data out today, this morning’s market movement has been driven mostly by talk of ECB demand for Italian debt in the secondary market. The weeks trading decisions have been dominated by Euro yield movements and the Bund spread. If it was not an Italian problem, then it was Spanish or French. Intra-day trading has mostly been a carbon copy of the day before, little change in theme, same toxic variables, and a market all thinking they want to apply the same trade ‘but not at these levels’.

In FX we have witnessed a market suffering a slow motion meltdown. With CHF out of the equation, because of the SNB actions, the USD and JPY have gained significantly against the EUR, commodity bloc and EM currencies compared to this time last week. The surprise to most has been how orderly and gradual the moves have occurred. Normally, with any risk aversions trading strategy decision, “Panic” seems to be the outlier as investors all run for the exits at the same time.

Analysts attribute the relative stability in the currency markets to three factors, “positioning, reserve manager activity and caution over potential policy response”. We should be able to throw in other adjectives like jaded, clueless, resigned and fearful. There are obviously many more.

What have we got to look forward to in the short term? Presently, the EU policy process remains adequate for preventing worst case scenarios in the Euro-zone, but for how long? It’s all about capital market confidence and the public Franco-German spat over the legal and political role of the ECB does not help. With the ECB not acting as a crisis backstop, risk reward remains favorable for the dollar and yen. Stronger US fundamentals are not part of any equation, albeit a prerequisite, they are not yet a trend and remain vulnerable to consistency due to the Euro-sovereign debt crisis.

The pressure on the ECB to resolve this crisis is reaching a tipping point. Something has to give, either the ECB cracks or the EUR. Place your bets!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,600
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:04am Nov 18, 2011 10:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
The pressure on the ECB to resolve this crisis is reaching a tipping point. Something has to give, either the ECB cracks or the EUR. Place your bets!
Is there not a "all of the above" in this multiple choice test?
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