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  • #761
  • Nov 11, 2011 2:45am Nov 11, 2011 2:45am
Quoting supra
That was really an in-depth analysis incorporating various variables as you said. Most appreciated, LJ.

If you have the time, I would be grateful if you could help with a question in my previous post below:
Yes I agree with you, that level certainly was not one I would be looking to take a TT on, the S/R is not clear enough - in essence it mark's the mid point of the consolidation box and thus it is the box that is far more interesting than an S/R within the box.
  • #762
  • Nov 11, 2011 2:53am Nov 11, 2011 2:53am
Quoting lovejoy80
Thanks, I'm glad you found it useful - I might do one on the ECHF trade in due course explaining the reasoning in more detail.

I've take some profit on this trade today - I am as exposed to this pair as I want to be, but there is a potential TT setup if price moves lower.
A few days later ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #763
  • Nov 11, 2011 7:19am Nov 11, 2011 7:19am
Quoting Greenhaze
Hi LJ,

I thought you may find this interesting. S&P500 price structure is very similar to the pre-crash 2008 pa. The environment is not so much different aswell so it might end up as good short opportunity imo..... Worth to keep an eye on at least. All the best!
I think the main difference fundamentally is that what happened in 2008 took the market by surprise - it was a big unexpected shock to the system, whereas now, in 2011 the current problems (and likely future problems) are against a very different background.

Technically we can see that we have H&S patterns that have played out and price has retraced to just above the neckline. If the down-trend is intact price should now of course form a lower low with the current recent high being the lower high ... will be interesting to see what happens.
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  • #764
  • Nov 16, 2011 4:14am Nov 16, 2011 4:14am
Quoting lovejoy80
I think the main difference fundamentally is that what happened in 2008 took the market by surprise - it was a big unexpected shock to the system, whereas now, in 2011 the current problems (and likely future problems) are against a very different background.

Technically we can see that we have H&S patterns that have played out and price has retraced to just above the neckline. If the down-trend is intact price should now of course form a lower low with the current recent high being the lower high ... will be interesting to see what happens.
Current overall view on EP .... In another consolidation box having hit monthly resistance and price cant decide which direction to head - look at all the firm rejections of the former consolidation box high, yet price can't gain momentum to retest monthly resistance again - so we have a wedge to watch for clues (charts below are weekly and daily TF's)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #765
  • Nov 16, 2011 7:41am Nov 16, 2011 7:41am
Quoting lovejoy80
A few days later ....
SL moved up to below the monthly S/R and waiting for signs of a potential break of the consolidation box - price is essentially trading between two monthly S/R's at the moment so now it's a case of waiting for price to give us some signs of an impending breakout.
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  • #766
  • Nov 16, 2011 7:47am Nov 16, 2011 7:47am
This wedge pattern on GNZD is interesting to me as is the confluenced resistance @ 2.100.
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  • #767
  • Nov 16, 2011 3:38pm Nov 16, 2011 3:38pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Current overall view on EP .... In another consolidation box having hit monthly resistance and price cant decide which direction to head - look at all the firm rejections of the former consolidation box high, yet price can't gain momentum to retest monthly resistance again - so we have a wedge to watch for clues (charts below are weekly and daily TF's)
Getting close to the all important wedge low and the 1218 level. This chart combined with the USDX daily resistance + 4HR channel is key to the defining the future direction of the USD and JPY pairs IMO.
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  • #768
  • Nov 17, 2011 12:17am Nov 17, 2011 12:17am
I am watching the 0.77 area

but will be careful about my FTAs as this pair is choppy on H4
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  • #769
  • Nov 17, 2011 1:19am Nov 17, 2011 1:19am
Quoting AvanishDemo
I am watching the 0.77 area

but will be careful about my FTAs as this pair is choppy on H4
Not a pair I watch but just took a look - what's wrong with the level slightly higher? Both looks like FTB setups to me (I only trade FTB on the majors myself).

We also had a 'Breakout' FTB on the Daily TF yesterday as price closed below the support and returned to touch it on the next bar before falling further.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #770
  • Nov 18, 2011 12:56am Nov 18, 2011 12:56am
Quoting lovejoy80
Not a pair I watch but just took a look - what's wrong with the level slightly higher? Both looks like FTB setups to me (I only trade FTB on the majors myself).

We also had a 'Breakout' FTB on the Daily TF yesterday as price closed below the support and returned to touch it on the next bar before falling further.
Price did indeed react at the 0.7700 level and went to it's FLR.

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  • #771
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:13am Nov 18, 2011 4:13am
Hi Lovejoy,

I'm an avid reader of your thread although I don't post much. Just wanted to say thanks for all your contributions, it's very much appreciated.

I was wondering if you would care to comment on the below AUDJPY set up at 76.68 and whether it is something you would have taken?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Thanks
Dave
  • #772
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:03am Nov 18, 2011 5:03am
Quoting MinceMeat
Hi Lovejoy,

I'm an avid reader of your thread although I don't post much. Just wanted to say thanks for all your contributions, it's very much appreciated.

I was wondering if you would care to comment on the below AUDJPY set up at 76.68 and whether it is something you would have taken?

Attachment

Thanks
Dave
Looks like a good technically confluenced setup to me - FTB to Daily S/R with 61.8% fib confluence.

Fighting against a strong current trend though so I'd either be looking to manage it as a swing / position trade with an obvious initial target of the 78 S/R level or managing it on the lower TF's in which case 77 area would have been my FLR.
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  • #773
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:07am Nov 18, 2011 5:07am
One of a few setups on my current watch-list.
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  • #774
  • Nov 18, 2011 6:17am Nov 18, 2011 6:17am
Quoting lovejoy80
One of a few setups on my current watch-list.
nice LJ..
but i dont know why i am still staying away from this setup though i already spotted it earlier like u..'recently' 1.02 is acting as a PPZ a lot and then i feel after how long this will keep acting as PPZ..i know thats wierd..

anyways G/NZD i am keeping the setup in my watch list..
Price has acted well in the past(2nd chart) and its back again @ 2.1 00after long time.
61.8Fib..
space factor will be a key to determine FTA.

(NZDCAD i will be watching the area 0.77)..
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  • #775
  • Nov 18, 2011 6:30am Nov 18, 2011 6:30am
Quote
anyways G/NZD i am keeping the setup in my watch list..
Price has acted well in the past(2nd chart) and its back again @ 2.1 00after long time.
61.8Fib..
space factor will be a key to determine FTA.

I posted the same setup in the PF a while ago and said exactly the same thing about lack of space - it's not an easy one in terms of trade management.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #776
  • Nov 18, 2011 6:41am Nov 18, 2011 6:41am
Quote
but i dont know why i am still staying away from this setup though i already spotted it earlier like u..'recently' 1.02 is acting as a PPZ a lot and then i feel after how long this will keep acting as PPZ..i know thats wierd..

For me because it's been acting as support or resistance over 10 times it shows the strength of the area. The only time I don't like taking a TT act a well respected S/R area is when the area is 'washed out' - when it's acted (for example) as support multiple times in quick succession.
  • #777
  • Edited 7:26am Nov 18, 2011 7:12am | Edited 7:26am
Quoting lovejoy80
One of a few setups on my current watch-list.
Hi LJ. It does look interesting. I will have to add it to my watch list aswell

I am in AUDNZD short atm. There is a lot of confluence on weekly tf and price is not able to close above 1.32 on daily tf but we have 4th test atm.

I forgot to set my price alert on GU (My clumsiness amazes me sometimes)
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  • #778
  • Nov 18, 2011 7:40am Nov 18, 2011 7:40am
Quote
Hi LJ. It does look interesting. I will have to add it to my watch list aswell

I am in AUDNZD short atm. There is a lot of confluence on weekly tf and price is not able to close above 1.32 on daily tf but we have 4th test atm.

I actually looked at this setup on the Daily TF a while ago and passed on it because:

(a) although its a while since it last hit this area its still the 3rd time it's testing it as resistance following the last test as support

(b) lack of space to FLS.

It certainly hasn't moved like I want most of my TT's to react - now we are in a 4HR box and have no clues as to what will happen next.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #779
  • Nov 18, 2011 7:46am Nov 18, 2011 7:46am
Quote
I forgot to set my price alert on GU (My clumsiness amazes me sometimes)

Me too! I was away making me lunch when price started moving fast - had nice 'correlated confluence' too with UCHF and USDx (and other USD pairs of course). I doubt I would have been able to trade it though - takes me a while to get all my orders ready.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #780
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:40am Nov 18, 2011 10:40am
Quoting lovejoy80
Looks like a good technically confluenced setup to me - FTB to Daily S/R with 61.8% fib confluence.

Fighting against a strong current trend though so I'd either be looking to manage it as a swing / position trade with an obvious initial target of the 78 S/R level or managing it on the lower TF's in which case 77 area would have been my FLR.
Thanks for the feedback LJ.

My FLR was @ 77.07 where I intended on taking half profits and letting the rest of the trade run till 77.59. Generally only trade the majors as I don't find the crosses respect levels of support and resistance quite as well.

Have a good weekend.

Dave
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