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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #10,481
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:45am Nov 18, 2011 4:45am
Quoting FXMindset
how about 1.4 again
On the daily a break of 1.3870 leaves the door wide open to 1.4135
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #10,482
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:46am Nov 18, 2011 4:46am
Quoting PipKiller
On the daily a break of 1.3870 leaves the door wide open to 1.4135
I would say leaves the door open for Toms heart attack
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,483
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:52am Nov 18, 2011 4:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
Playing devil's advocate here...
So by your own logic that sell orders would entice market makers to run their stops to take price up, the same would surely apply to the breakout buy orders that are waiting just above resistance.. correct? If not, I would appreciate to know why. I love learning new concepts

Absolutely, but you have to look at it in the order of importance. Right now, the central focus is on the 3550-60 because you have 4 reference points making up the resistance (see chart). Then, if you look at forexlive.com you see confirmation of sell orders lining up at 3550-60. You know that above that you get a lot of buy stop orders from breakout buyers and the stop loss orders from the sellers. That's very atractive for hunters. The key here is that someone has to bid it up to those levels (50-60) to make the sellers exposed. For that, you need positive sentiment (equities going higher followed by those correlation traders etc etc).

The therory behind is that when someone matches those somewhat big sell orders then market makers can start aggressive buying cause they can liquidate into those stops booking some profits. Key is sentiment and short term technicals. Right now you have higher equities and higher lows in E/U (15M chart) so the probability of a breakout after those sell orders are executed is, IMO, higher....but we'll see...
  • #10,484
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:53am Nov 18, 2011 4:53am
Muachachaa, I have a new picture for your collection PT.

Evolution of EMU crisis by Angela.
Attached Image
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,485
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:54am Nov 18, 2011 4:54am
Quoting PipKiller
On the daily a break of 1.3870 leaves the door wide open to 1.4135
Friday Scenario
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #10,486
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:59am Nov 18, 2011 4:59am
Quoting FXMindset
Friday Scenario
LOL Mabey next friday. I don't think I have enough money to push it there for you today.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #10,487
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:00am Nov 18, 2011 5:00am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Muachachaa, I have a new picture for your collection PT.

Evolution of EMU crisis by Angela.
Tom....stop!
  • #10,488
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:05am Nov 18, 2011 5:05am
Quoting lumesh
Absolutely, but you have to look at it in the order of importance. Right now, the central focus is on the 3550-60 because you have 4 reference points making up the resistance (see chart). Then, if you look at forexlive.com you see confirmation of sell orders lining up at 3550-60. You know that above that you get a lot of buy stop orders from breakout buyers and the stop loss orders from the sellers. That's very atractive for hunters. The key here is that someone has to bid it up to those levels (50-60) to make the sellers exposed. For that, you...
Yes I see. Excellent explanation. Thanks Lumesh
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,489
  • Edited 5:12am Nov 18, 2011 5:11am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting lumesh
..... For that, you need positive sentiment (equities going higher followed by those correlation traders etc etc).
...
How about positive futures sentiment?
I hope I will go snorcheling again, it is really boring when you can do hardly any sports at November.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,490
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:13am Nov 18, 2011 5:13am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Muachachaa, I have a new picture for your collection PT.

Evolution of EMU crisis by Angela.
and then comes 2012 when Germany tries to collect what they are owed by Greece...

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...H36AiGKNcZ6bMQ
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,491
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:15am Nov 18, 2011 5:15am
Hmmm.... was looking in old platform charts and found a chart I have been using to mark long term areas of support and resistance on the hourly chart over the last 5 years and found this.
I still find it amazing that market psychology and history can be counted on to repeat itself.

The only scary part is the double bottom on the daily,
Tom the mad-shorter may not like to see that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11-18-11.png Size: 52 KB
  • #10,492
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:15am Nov 18, 2011 5:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
and then comes 2012 when Germany tries to collect what they are owed by Greece...
2012 is too soon imo. I expect doomsday around 2020. Saving picture anyway, it will come in handy .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,493
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:19am Nov 18, 2011 5:19am
Quoting Gofer Pips
The only scary part is the double bottom on the daily,
Tom the mad-shorter may not like to see that.
I like that, I am looking at daily all the time and my S/R lines are from weekly candles.

Damn I love that support at 3420. Do you remember where did it came from?

Edit: 35208 is great as well.

1 more edit: And 4185, lovely.

And another one: 3935, great as well. Those are some nice lines sir.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,494
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:19am Nov 18, 2011 5:19am
Quoting foto
................If this thing starts heading south convincingly from current levels can always jump back in.
The political structure is such that any and all means to prevent a meltdown in Europe will be employed. We do not have free markets, so there is no sense in trading from a free market perspective.
morning all :-) had a few things to do earlier so couldn't logon.

some well made points foto, yesterday was the most highly defensive session I've seen in a while....

Some interesting numbers (approximates):
Tue spread = 145 pips. Vol:98
Wed spread = 137 pips Vol:266
Thu spread = 95 pips Vol:291

Wed volumes were about 2.5 times that of Tuesday with a much tighter spread. That was a bullish signal to me. Then yesterdays volumes increased to approx 3 times that of Tuesday and still we had an even tighter spread - no way was any bear getting close to 3400. So if all this money is in the system and its not going down, then logic would suggest it's got to go up.

It appears that the market is waiting for some news - will it be a failed US supercommittee or maybe some form of eurobond??
patience is a virtue
  • #10,495
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:28am Nov 18, 2011 5:28am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
How about positive futures sentiment?
I hope I will go snorcheling again, it is really boring when you can do hardly any sports at November.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx

T.
It certainly helps, yeah. But note that this seemingly positive sentiment from futures can simply be a retracement. Yesterday, we closed at the lows, so any tick up basically means that futures are in the green...I'm afraid the real sentiment just isn't positive...yet
  • #10,496
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:31am Nov 18, 2011 5:31am
Berlusconi to release its love song album next week...I guess that adds to positive sentiment. Haven't heard him singing though
  • #10,497
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:31am Nov 18, 2011 5:31am
Quoting lumesh
It certainly helps, yeah. But note that ...
My sentiment definitely isnt positive
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,498
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:34am Nov 18, 2011 5:34am
Quoting lovepips
...So if all this money is in the system and its not going down, then logic would suggest it's got to go up.
Hmmm I believe there is a third alternative... sideways?

Quoting lovepips
...It appears that the market is waiting for some news - will it be a failed US supercommittee or maybe some form of eurobond??
Eurobond is highly unlikely to impossible right now.

Failed US super committee is more likely, but even a successful super committee would be a catalyst. The only difference is direction and that direction will be based on whether the market is satisfied or dissatisfied with the final outcome relative to their expectations.

I personally would love to see a corrective move upwards so that we can get it out of the way and open up the downside for further necessary moves.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,499
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:36am Nov 18, 2011 5:36am
Quoting oceanis
Iam long from 3505, took profit 3525, still have 10% But i am olso only practecing my patience.
Shit, i was stop out at 35101. slightly below ema 21 on 15 min chart

Thx for the voucher Bumapatria.
  • #10,500
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:37am Nov 18, 2011 5:37am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
My sentiment definitely isnt positive
Mine is positive.. positively bearish
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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