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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #10,461
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:32am Nov 18, 2011 3:32am
Quoting Blobik
Oil drop has possibly sth to do with it? If you had EUR/Foil chart it would look similar, I think.

ADD: Except for that oil started recovering. But EUR started rising at the same time...
Chart covers 9 weeks... oil should be way up. So if CAD = Oil then it should also be way up.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,462
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:35am Nov 18, 2011 3:35am
Quoting bumapatria
lumesh is going down deep down further down. think of 76.50s.
thanks


i wonder what is your rationale ?
  • #10,463
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:35am Nov 18, 2011 3:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't think so.

The ECB sterilizes the bond purchases by offering fixed term tenders (in Euros) paying a max 1.25% ...
I am still waiting for that sterilization. I could use another weekend in hell, it is getting chilly here.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,464
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:36am Nov 18, 2011 3:36am
Quoting AaronWard
Chart covers 9 weeks... oil should be way up. So if CAD = Oil then it should also be way up.
Okay, you have the point. But on the other hand, CAD was punched down by bad employment data about 2-3 weeks ago, and maybe there were other that were punching it down. Hard to find a good explanation, though. Maybe it is just that EZ is bigger than Canada so it somehow attracts more money overall.

I give up, have no clue.
  • #10,465
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:37am Nov 18, 2011 3:37am
Quoting Blobik
Don't worry, in Poland too. I just thought that your Tom waves made you rich already and that you use sth bigger .
Unfortunately no my friend. I still need to work like an ordinary human to make my living. I am trading just for four months now. 8% profit so far, so meeting targets, but I have a long long road ahead of me.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,466
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:37am Nov 18, 2011 3:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
Buma, in this thread it is quite sufficient to announce what you are trading and why.
There is no need to caution others on what they are doing. Please just stick to the objectives of this thread. We are not providing a signal service here.
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #10,467
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:41am Nov 18, 2011 3:41am
will it hold ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,468
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:44am Nov 18, 2011 3:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't think so.

The ECB sterilizes the bond purchases by offering fixed term tenders (in Euros) paying a max 1.25%
They do this to absorb extra money supply in circulation and thereby sterilize the effects of buying up the bonds.
The only problem is that as of last Monday they had accumulated a €187 Billion net balance of unsterilized money. This amounts to an easing effect (or broadening of the money base)
Hmm interesting, thanks.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #10,469
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:49am Nov 18, 2011 3:49am
This will be very important H1 close and I expect fight to the death @ 35378.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,470
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:52am Nov 18, 2011 3:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
This will be very important H1 close and I expect fight to the death @ 35378.
Yes it will be. PA has not been able to breach the top of the range. Price may test the bottom of the range now at 1.3425 now.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,471
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:53am Nov 18, 2011 3:53am
Quoting lumesh
thanks


i wonder what is your rationale ?
Here are my possible projections (refer to H1 chart attached)

78.016 (38.2% retrace of last swing high)
or
77.888 (Today's Daily S2 Support)
or
77.808 (50.0% retrace of last swing high)
or
77.687 (pullback from 61.8% fibo to 50.0% fibo of long term drop from October's high of 80.395 to the 74.870 low)
or
77.559 (61.8% retrace of last swing high)

IMHO 76.500 is pie in the sky and the most likely today are the first and second projections (78.016 & 77.888)

ADD: Daily Chart
.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: dx-d1.gif Size: 27 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,472
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:57am Nov 18, 2011 3:57am
Everybody interprets things differently.

I think yesterday we had a run on some European financial institution.
That was the sharp break around noon est
The charts went funny shortly afterwards. Last time that happened we ended up with a rally in the Euro beginning the next day.
As far as I am concerned that was the Fed moving money into Europe to cover the lost deposits.

We have had the 1.3450 level hold back the selling onslaught.
Today being Friday am not trusting the range to hold and think there will be a push to get a rally in equities.
Went flat on the break of the 1.3530 level as the daily downtrend line on the line chart (closes only) broke too easily. Had expected more resistance there.

The 200 sma on the hourly is at 1.3608 During prior rallies in the Euro that level has been a good place to get on board a short.

Will see how the day plays out.
If this thing starts heading south convincingly from current levels can always jump back in.
The political structure is such that any and all means to prevent a meltdown in Europe will be employed. We do not have free markets, so there is no sense in trading from a free market perspective.
  • #10,473
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:05am Nov 18, 2011 4:05am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
This will be very important H1 close and I expect fight to the death @ 35378.
i see the most important area at 3550-60...once those sell orders there are filled, i would think market makers would quickly push for the stop losses of those orders resulting in a decent breakout to the upside.

Right now we made one more base ahead of the 3550-3560 meaning that more and more breakout traders are watching that level.
  • #10,474
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:16am Nov 18, 2011 4:16am
Quoting lumesh
i see the most important area at 3550-60...once those sell orders there are filled, i would think market makers would quickly push for the stop losses of those orders resulting in a decent breakout to the upside.

Right now we made one more base ahead of the 3550-3560 meaning that more and more breakout traders are watching that level.
Playing devil's advocate here...
So by your own logic that sell orders would entice market makers to run their stops to take price up, the same would surely apply to the breakout buy orders that are waiting just above resistance.. correct? If not, I would appreciate to know why. I love learning new concepts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,475
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:20am Nov 18, 2011 4:20am
Ok at my charts H1 closed 35384, which is +5 piplettes. I shall call it a tie.

You may see on m5 chart how I was pressing down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,476
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:22am Nov 18, 2011 4:22am
I see more risk for a rally today than a drop. E$ has been shorted all week and it's friday. Time to book some profits and take risk off the table for the weekend.

Daily - Consolidating in big wedge. Unable to break through 1.3445 - 1-3360 demand zone. Nearest supply zone 1.3775 - 1.3870 area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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60 - Breakout of wedge to topside. Breaks above 1.3558 opens the path to 1.3590 - 1.3643 supply zone. Break above here sees 1.3690 then 1.3740
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 60.jpg Size: 111 KB
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #10,477
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:28am Nov 18, 2011 4:28am
Iam long from 3505, took profit 3525, still have 10% of position to carry it on to posible brake through 3550. Reasoning Ema 200 on 1h chart, and ema 62 on 4h above 3600 plus fibo 3570 and 3616. But i am olso only practecing my patience.

For all euro sceptics here is someone that represents some scepticism in eu parliament
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  • #10,478
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:33am Nov 18, 2011 4:33am
Quoting PipKiller
I see more risk for a rally today than a drop. E$ has been shorted all week and it's friday. Time to book some profits and take risk off the table for the weekend.

Daily - Consolidating in big wedge. Unable to break through 1.3445 - 1-3360 demand zone. Nearest supply zone 1.3775 - 1.3870 area
Attachment

60 - Breakout of wedge to topside. Breaks above 1.3558 opens the path to 1.3590 - 1.3643 supply zone. Break above here sees 1.3690 then 1.3740
Attachment
how about 1.4 again
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #10,479
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:34am Nov 18, 2011 4:34am
Quoting Alorente
Yes it will be. PA has not been able to breach the top of the range. Price may test the bottom of the range now at 1.3425 now.
We have not had a conversation however by reading some of your posts I see you understand the reality we are observing in the markets.

Of all my information sources the following one is the most imformative.

He has had a track record for me of 12 years since 1999. At present time I subscribe to his services and I cannot post his reports.

However he does put out public reports less in depth yet more than revealing. You will never read most of what he says on CNBC or even the other more open websites like zero hedge. What makes his reports so unique is that Jim Willie is NOT politically correct.

This is not meant to be an endorsement of his reports however I strongly suggest all of us here interested in the truth take the time to read carefully this report of November 17, 2011 and use the information to understand what is really happening at the moment. Next week we may have events unfolding on November 23, 2011 and knowing what the TRUTH is gives everyone who knows it a BIG EDGE.

I am going to the Montreal Investment Show put on by Cambridge House starting at 10:00 AM until 5:00 PM.

Some of the world's most knowledgeable experts will be there such as John Kaiser and Chris Berry P.H.D. and many more. I will have a chance to discuss the Jim Willie report with them and also hear their views and ask questions. I will report back on Sunday here with more information. The show continues on Saturday so if you have any important questions just post them here and I will get answers.

Have a great trading day and now here is the link to the report.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1321563600.php
  • #10,480
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:38am Nov 18, 2011 4:38am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
You may see on m5 chart how I was pressing down
Yepee, first level of TP hit 36 pips in the bag and 3495 ahead for next level.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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