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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #10,321
  • Nov 17, 2011 9:54am Nov 17, 2011 9:54am
A little something for those caught long on this move.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #10,322
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:00am Nov 17, 2011 10:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
... and the SP500 chewed through the demand zone.

.

Seems to be that news is ignored now and negative sentiment persists. Very suprising outcome from the SP500, given the good news and lower italian and spanish bond yields.

I guess the auctions today gave a boost to this negative sentiment cause there is a clear trend of higher yield demand from the PIIGS.
  • #10,323
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:04am Nov 17, 2011 10:04am
Quoting lumesh
Seems to be that news is ignored now and negative sentiment persists. Very suprising outcome from the SP500, given the good news and lower italian and spanish bond yields.

I guess the auctions today gave a boost to this negative sentiment cause there is a clear trend of higher yield demand from the PIIGS.
Don't forget the upcoming events which have the potential of further risk aversion going into the weekend.

--Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature. IMF/EU officials expected to conclude two-week quarterly evaluation of Portugal's bailout program implementation.

--Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.

ADD: Alorente and Islander, please put your personal political preferences aside and vote for the government that will be more likely to cause the Spanish yields to rise to 10%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,324
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:09am Nov 17, 2011 10:09am
Germany is already publicly opposing the idea of the ECB lending to the IMF so that they can leverage funds to use for EZ sovereign bailouts. It's perfectly legal though and it is supported by the EC. However, it is only in the discussion stage.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,325
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:13am Nov 17, 2011 10:13am
SP500 H1 chart update

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,326
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:21am Nov 17, 2011 10:21am
Once again, the Euro was saved by that evil trend line from hell.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,327
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:22am Nov 17, 2011 10:22am
Who scream Long Just with confidence!
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #10,328
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:24am Nov 17, 2011 10:24am
Quoting AaronWard
Once again, the Euro was saved by that evil trend line from hell.
Doesn't look saved to me. The trend line is surely strong, but the rally may be short lived. Looks to me that it's more room down than up, it's been like a few hours on 1.3520 area and nothing pushed it higher. So, unless it starts channeling, there's only one way to go, and that's down.
  • #10,329
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:29am Nov 17, 2011 10:29am
Quoting FXMindset
Who scream Long Just with confidence!
Mabey Cramer on CNBC

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #10,330
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:30am Nov 17, 2011 10:30am
Quoting michaelnew
Doesn't look saved to me. The trend line is surely strong, but the rally may be short lived. Looks to me that it's more room down than up, it's been like a few hours on 1.3520 area and nothing pushed it higher. So, unless it starts channeling, there's only one way to go, and that's down.
This is how the game play
Last Push before down 1 2 3 4 5 - Maybe ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #10,331
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:31am Nov 17, 2011 10:31am
Quoting PipKiller
Mabey Cramer on CNBC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2n5pd9eKapY
YAY!SELL SWISS!!!
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #10,332
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:32am Nov 17, 2011 10:32am
TP on one of my orders missed less than a pip and my SL got hit instead Dunno If this was bad trade or bad luck... Bad day.
EDIT: Oh, actually it was 2 pips. Still, this is really annoying one.
  • #10,333
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:35am Nov 17, 2011 10:35am
Quoting Blobik
TP on one of my orders missed less than a pip and my SL got hit instead Dunno If this was bad trade or bad luck... Bad day.
Like you, I have magic TP power. I have seen my TPs missed about 20 times today by one pip or less (yes, literally). Once it actually hit the price, turned yellow... but didn't close. Another couple of times it missed by a single point.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,334
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:41am Nov 17, 2011 10:41am
Quoting AaronWard
Like you, I have magic TP power. I have seen my TPs missed about 20 times today by one pip or less (yes, literally). Once it actually hit the price, turned yellow... but didn't close. Another couple of times it missed by a single point.
Thanks, at least I am not the only one... Is there any fancy way to avoid that, or have higher possibility of not losing too hard?
  • #10,335
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:43am Nov 17, 2011 10:43am
I have feeling a that the red small trendline (see chart) is the key here. I think if we break that then the order cascade resulting from that would cause a significant move down breaking also the longer term downward sloping blue trendline which would take us below 3400
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  • #10,336
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:45am Nov 17, 2011 10:45am
Quoting Blobik
TP on one of my orders missed less than a pip and my SL got hit instead Dunno If this was bad trade or bad luck... Bad day.
EDIT: Oh, actually it was 2 pips. Still, this is really annoying one.
Stop annoying man otherwise how can you trade better
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #10,337
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:45am Nov 17, 2011 10:45am
Quoting AaronWard
Like you, I have magic TP power. I have seen my TPs missed about 20 times today by one pip or less (yes, literally). Once it actually hit the price, turned yellow... but didn't close. Another couple of times it missed by a single point.
Isn't it a real bummer when you have a limit order at 1.35390 and price makes it to 1.35387 and reverses? ...especially when another broker's price makes it to 1.35394?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,338
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:46am Nov 17, 2011 10:46am
Quoting Blobik
Thanks, at least I am not the only one... Is there any fancy way to avoid that, or have higher possibility of not losing too hard?
Yes. Simply do not put TP near a support or resistance or pivot to the pip. Leave it short of the target by a couple of pips and they will hit more often. Same for SL except take it a couple pips further from the support, resistance or pivot.

ADD: I had sell limit yesterday for 1.3558 and high was 1.35563. Dumb me did not follow my rule as I hastily put in my sell limit.
  • #10,339
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:48am Nov 17, 2011 10:48am
Quoting lumesh
I have feeling a that the red small trendline (see chart) is the key here. I think if we break that then the order cascade resulting from that would cause a significant move down breaking also the longer term downward sloping blue trendline which would take us below 3400
Well then hold your breath coz this sucker is going down soon. Sentiment is very negative today so I believe the close will more likely bring on a sell-off rather than a bid up.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,340
  • Nov 17, 2011 10:51am Nov 17, 2011 10:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well then hold your breath coz this sucker is going down soon. Sentiment is very negative today so I believe the close will more likely bring on a sell-off rather than a bid up.
given equites and global sentiment it should happen any minute now
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