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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #10,241
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:21am Nov 17, 2011 8:21am
Quoting bumapatria
F@!@.

counted wrong. the wedging period wasnt that big! CANT believe i missed that!!! eespecially with that retest..

kcuf!!!
Know the feeling. It is the worst, when one is right but makes no money (or even loses it). Don't worry, if you believe it will go up, do what your analysis tells. Even if it is some moon cycle stuff, which most underestimate. The old technicals are good, but they are so mainstream

I am quite angry at myself, that I hopped oil too early... or doubted the retest of 100 too soon. But it is all good for now (don't have MT here so cannot check for sure, but seems I am in profit now), only EUR shorts get a bit underwater, but they ale small ones. And AUD long is hedging them; in fact my hedge setup favours correction.

Yes, I I agree that sounds like some crazy jumping in too many trades, but when I scrolled back my history, when I stick to one instrument (and not hedge at all) I make my greatest losses. So I try to get back what was working for me in the past. If it was pure luck, then I will eventually lose. If it was just that the method fit my needs, I will come back up and shine again
  • #10,242
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:22am Nov 17, 2011 8:22am
Eurozone bond yields shrug off ECB auction

European bond yields were still making traders nervous on Thursday, despite the European Central Bank's repeated bond-buying sprees.

On Thursday, the ECB bought up Spanish and French bonds, but with lackluster results, according to Marc Chandler, analyst for Brown Brothers Harriman.

The European Central Bank has been regularly snapping up bonds to try and bring some stability to the market. But yields for most eurozone countries keep going up anyway, fueling fears on Wall Street of a European contagion.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,243
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:25am Nov 17, 2011 8:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay I moved my sell limit to 1.3640 but if it doesn't make it, I will enter manually. I have my insurance policies at 1.3455 and 1.3485 with small shorts so I'm all good if I miss the southbound train.

ADD: Forgot the chart ...

.

I think my "insurance" is satysfying for now to me, I will add in if she somehow tests the upper FTL and starts to bounce, or makes a fake break. Not any sooner, as I was awaiting this retracement too long and I think my long attempts deserve some profit now. And if we stop rising sooner, no problemo, my insurance shorts will get green again and shine in glory.

It will hurt only if we break the daily trendline and close quite far above. Then I would start to worry.
  • #10,244
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:26am Nov 17, 2011 8:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
Buma. I am confident in my position.
There will be much volatility I know and I am properly positioned for it.
I am not married to my bias because I don't have one.
If Mer-k-ozy somehow come up with a magic pill, I will certainly put on my Bull mask in a hurry
i have no mask just my assassin awesomeness to do just buy and sell all over the place.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,245
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:28am Nov 17, 2011 8:28am
Quoting Blobik
Know the feeling. It is the worst, when one is right but makes no money (or even loses it). Don't worry, if you believe it will go up, do what your analysis tells. Even if it is some moon cycle stuff, which most underestimate. The old technicals are good, but they are so mainstream

I am quite angry at myself, that I hopped oil too early... or doubted the retest of 100 too soon. But it is all good for now, only EUR shorts get a bit underwater, but they ale small ones. And AUD long is hedging them.

Yes, I I agree that sounds like...
smart hedge buddy. its a f---ed up world, its hard enough to be fx traders in times like this, but hey, lets make where others lose. punish the weak, be the strong. mean, but thats how it works.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,246
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:29am Nov 17, 2011 8:29am
Quoting bumapatria
i have no mask just my assassin awesomeness to do just buy and sell all over the place.
You know very well that's not my style.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,247
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:31am Nov 17, 2011 8:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
Buma. I am confident in my position.
There will be much volatility I know and I am properly positioned for it.
I am not married to my bias because I don't have one.
If Mer-k-ozy somehow come up with a magic pill, I will certainly put on my Bull mask in a hurry
check out the daily volumes, something BIG is brewing. From the numbers I'm looking at there was over 2.5 times the selling yesterday but with a relatively tight spread..... possible bear reversal ??
patience is a virtue
  • #10,248
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:31am Nov 17, 2011 8:31am
Quoting bumapatria
smart hedge buddy. its a f---ed up world, its hard enough to be fx traders in times like this, but hey, lets make where others lose. punish the weak, be the strong. mean, but thats how it works.
I dislike the fact that money I earn comes from sb elses losses. But it cheers me up, that some part of that money is not a typical loss, as the ones that exchange money for their buisness and not for speculation don't consider it a loss that the price is in diffferent place than it was 3 days ago. Still, the fact that I might be earning on sb elses losses sometimes makes me feel not too proud. Probably that is why I don't plan to be trader whole life, rather set up own buisness.
  • #10,249
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:35am Nov 17, 2011 8:35am
Quoting Blobik
I dislike the fact that money I earn comes from sb elses losses. But it cheers me up, that some part of that money is not a typical loss, as the ones that exchange money for their buisness and not for speculation don't consider it a loss that the price is in diffferent place than it was 3 days ago. Still, the fact that I might be earning on sb elses losses sometimes makes me feel not too proud. Probably that is why I don't plan to be trader whole life, rather set up own buisness.
thats why i help others and share. if i was quiet id just long euro and shutup bout it and my cycle forecast which is almost 95% success rate on swings. if i was mean i would just hunt all the people who went short in this thread and many others. dont worry im not that mean.

next dates ill tell u guys when it happens. tommorow is still a date. waning crescent moon tommorow. as ive said either it is lagging for this bullish upmove OR its a bearish swing
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,250
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:36am Nov 17, 2011 8:36am
FYI, it's mayhem at NYSE today.. Occupy Wallstreet protesters are trying to shut it down. Traders were told to be a couple hours early to avoid the chaos. I wonder if this will have an effect on the market
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #10,251
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:38am Nov 17, 2011 8:38am
I went short at 1.3525. I now trade the M5 chart and the H4 chart. Yes, I´m becoming a scalper too, but only when I see an opportunity and as you can see, we have two consecutive bear divergences on the M5 Trix. Target: 1.3480
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,252
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:38am Nov 17, 2011 8:38am
Quoting lovepips
check out the daily volumes, something BIG is brewing. From the numbers I'm looking at there was over 2.5 times the selling yesterday but with a relatively tight spread..... possible bear reversal ??
Some sort of MSA (or how was the volume analysis called?) ? Like, trying to find when the big boys are buying? There was sth called "strenght in the background", as I remember. Did you mean, that we may be getting that?

I feel quite certain, that this move up should be powerful. In fact I could pull out my shorts and reenter them higher, but somehow I feel better keeping them and longing some risk assets instead. I am aware that this may cause overleveraging and overleveraging might cause margin call, but hedging like that makes me much calmer, as I know that some unpredicted reversal won't doom me entirely, and I am rather playing overall risk-on risk-off sentiment than specific currency or commodity.

Maybe that is a bad idea, but I think it is worth trying that way.
  • #10,253
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:40am Nov 17, 2011 8:40am
moon cycles i use real live dates and here it is so far:

most astro guys will not share cycles. a 90%+ success rate timign system that can even be customized why would anyone share?

im up for share
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: waning crescent.gif Size: 17 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,254
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:44am Nov 17, 2011 8:44am
Quoting Blobik
Some sort of MSA (or how was the volume analysis called?) ? Like, trying to find when the big boys are buying? There was sth called "strenght in the background", as I remember. Did you mean, that we may be getting that?

I feel quite certain, that this move up should be powerful. In fact I could pull out my shorts and reenter them higher, but somehow I feel better keeping them and longing some risk assets instead. I am aware that this may cause overleveraging and overleveraging might cause margin call, but hedging like that makes me much calmer,...
Yes, the tight range and the substantial increase in volume are indicators of Big Money. I took those numbers and loaded up more longs with relatively tight stops. I've also got a few shorts lined up :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #10,255
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:50am Nov 17, 2011 8:50am
Closed short at 1.3493. Profit: 32 pips. S&P was hitting resistance so I took my profit and ran.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,256
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:51am Nov 17, 2011 8:51am
Quoting lovepips
Yes, the tight range and the substantial increase in volume are indicators of Big Money. I took those numbers and loaded up more longs with relatively tight stops. I've also got a few shorts lined up :-)
So it's a game of chicken between the bulls and the bears then.

I love chicken fights coz at some point one of them comes flying out of the range.

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,257
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:56am Nov 17, 2011 8:56am
Quoting Alorente
Closed short at 1.3493. Profit: 32 pips. S&P was hitting resistance so I took my profit and ran.
nice job
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,258
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:56am Nov 17, 2011 8:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
So it's a game of chicken between the bulls and the bears then.

I love chicken fights coz at some point one of them comes flying out of the range.

.
yes indeed.... looking forward to this one :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #10,259
  • Nov 17, 2011 9:00am Nov 17, 2011 9:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
You know very well that's not my style.
i usually have a swing trade and scalp in the middle as it goes. to me i see opp i take it. steal and go.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,260
  • Nov 17, 2011 9:02am Nov 17, 2011 9:02am
if USDX breaks im long no doubt.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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