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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #10,201
  • Nov 17, 2011 5:35am Nov 17, 2011 5:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
Try and get some sleep Buma. Sounds like you need it. Still 3 hours before NY open and 2 hrs before US housing and unemployment numbers
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #10,202
  • Nov 17, 2011 5:35am Nov 17, 2011 5:35am
Some fundamental news supporting Euro short positions...

Builders in U.S. Probably Started Work on Fewer Homes in October

Builders probably began work on fewer homes in October, a sign housing will remain a laggard in the third year of the U.S. recovery, economists said before a report today.

Starts fell 7.3 percent to a 610,000 annual rate in October, according to the median estimate of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area expanded for a second month, other data may show.

Spanish Yields Rise to Euro-Era Record as Costs Jump at Auction

Spanish 10-year bonds declined, pushing the yield to the highest level since the euro was created in 1999, as borrowing costs rose at an auction of bonds due in 2022.

The extra yield investors receive for holding 10-year French bonds instead of benchmark German bunds reached 2 percentage points for the first time in the euro era as France prepared to sell as much as 7 billion euros of notes and up to 1.2 billion euros of inflation-linked debt. Italian notes declined even as the European Central Bank was said to buy the nation’s debt. Spain is scheduled to hold a general election on Nov. 20.

Eurozone bond markets in turmoil as France and Germany dig in over ECB

• Eurozone borrowing costs continue to spiral upwards
• Germany and France fail to agree on role of ECB
• Barack Obama attacks Europe's failure of 'political will'

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/...N-ISRA-007.jpg
French president Nicolas Sarkozy kissing German chancellor Angela Merkel – on a poster in a Benetton clothing store window in Paris Photograph: Patrick

The row between France and Germany over whether to use the European Central Bank to rescue the eurozone has intensified, further shattering international confidence that a solution can be found to the escalating debt crisis.

On a day when the US president, Barack Obama, accused the eurozone of suffering from a "problem of political will", Paris and Berlin clashed over whether the ECB should be called on to do more to bail out countries that are struggling to borrow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,203
  • Nov 17, 2011 5:36am Nov 17, 2011 5:36am
Quoting lovepips
thanks for that.... I had to change the colours to blue/yellow (short/long) as I've got a green/red/brown colour vision deficiency
You're most welcome! Change colors as you need. That's what counts!
  • #10,204
  • Nov 17, 2011 5:39am Nov 17, 2011 5:39am
Hmm, it seems my EA is again working bad coz I just recounted Pivot and it is in fact 34835. Dont you please have some other MA for Pivots?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,205
  • Nov 17, 2011 5:43am Nov 17, 2011 5:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hmm, it seems my EA is again working bad coz I just recounted Pivot and it is in fact 34835. Dont you please have some other MA for Pivots?

T
Tom, you can use this auto pivot indicator if you wish.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 AutoPivotIndicator_ver5.mq4   31 KB | 187 downloads
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,206
  • Nov 17, 2011 5:43am Nov 17, 2011 5:43am
Hmm, maybe I should give that scalping another chance.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,207
  • Nov 17, 2011 5:53am Nov 17, 2011 5:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
Tom, you can use this auto pivot indicator if you wish.
Thank you, I will try it.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,208
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:05am Nov 17, 2011 6:05am
Widening Eurozone Bond Yields Placing Increasing Pressure on Banks


Markets locked in quiet consolidation
US Dollar intraday pullbacks are corrective
Italian bond spreads remain in focus
Spanish auction not well received
UK retail sales come in solid and prop Sterling
Swiss ZEW shows further deterioration
Initial jobless claims and Philly Fed on tap


There have been very few developments over the past several hours and since the New York close, with market mostly locked in some quiet trade. The US Dollar remains very well bid, and any minor Greenback selling on the day thus far should not be interpreted as anything more than short-term profit taking and a temporary consolidation. We continue to recommend keeping a close watch on the ever widening Eurozone bond yields, with Italian yields above 7% and considering an assault on an alarming 8%, while Spanish yields remain under pressure following another weak auction.
This would most definitely result in some form of an official, and potential coordinated response in an effort to mitigate any resulting damage to the banking system. Already, there has been an escalation in concern over the European banking system and its ability to manage through the crisis, and we have even been hearing rumors of official action on Thursday. This theme will be a critical one over the coming weeks and could expose the Euro currency to more weakness. Rating agencies are also watching closely, and any talk of downgrades will only make matters worse for local and global risk appetite.

EUR/USD: The latest break below 1.3480 should now open a fresh downside extension which ultimately exposes a retest of the key lows from October at 1.3145. Look for any rallies to be well capped below 1.3700, while ultimately, only back above 1.3870 would negate outlook. Once 1.3145 is taken out, it will negate the corrective October price action and should result in a more aggressive bout of selling into the 1.2000’s. We continue to project weakness over the coming weeks into the lower 1.2000’s as per the monthly chart.

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...s_body_eur.png
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,209
  • Edited 6:31am Nov 17, 2011 6:15am | Edited 6:31am
Crude just dropped like a stone... Was that a bubble crushing ?

And EUR does almost nothing EDIT: Okay, it was to bold to say almost nothing. but still 60 pips compared to 250 is small.
  • #10,210
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:23am Nov 17, 2011 6:23am
Quoting Blobik
Crude just dropped like a stone... Was that a bubble crushing ?

And EUR does almost nothing.
Ehem, The Euro dropped 60 pips in the same amout of time that oil dropped $2.54. Are your charts frozen?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,211
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:24am Nov 17, 2011 6:24am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hmm, maybe I should give that scalping another chance.
so far today has been great for scalping.... let's see what the US session brings :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #10,212
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:32am Nov 17, 2011 6:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ehem, The Euro dropped 60 pips in the same amout of time that oil dropped $2.54. Are your charts frozen?
Alright, 60 pips is not nothing. But is is still 4x smaller than 254 pips. So I am asking, where is my 250 EUR drop

I know, I know, the correlations are not exact. Now, will the oil go back up, or the EUR drown ?
  • #10,213
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:34am Nov 17, 2011 6:34am
Quoting Blobik
Alright, 60 pips is not nothing. But is is still 4x smaller than 254 pips. So I am asking, where is my 250 EUR drop

I know, I know, the correlations are not exact. Now, will the oil go back up, or the EUR drown ?
I cannot answer your question but as far as 60 pips vs $2.54, it's all relative
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,214
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:53am Nov 17, 2011 6:53am
EUR/USD – Short-term Consolidation and Breakout Scenarios

The EUR/USD has set up a range with support at 1.3425 and resistance at 1.3555. The 1H shows this market with bearish bias while consolidating in the range. Currently, it is respecting the 55 hour simple moving average. A break suggests a trip back to the 1.3555 resistance area near the 100 hour SMA and the 38.2% retracement level (1.3564). The downside opens up when the market is able to clear the 1.3425 low as well as push the RSI back below 40.

To the downside, there is support seen at the 1.3380 area, a previous pivot and 78.6% retracement. The market is also trading just above a projected wedge support. Note that the daily RSI reading is also above 40, and a return below 40 is needed to show the market is not consolidating. The 1H vs. Daily RSI readings suggests the market is at the cusp of opening up further bearish intent, with first bearish target toward the 1.3145 low.

To the upside, the market is limited to 1.3555-1.3564 resistance area as it consolidates in a flat. A break above 1.3564 however opens up a possible corrective rally toward 1.3650, 61.8% retracement, near 200SMA and declining wedge resistance. Only a break above 1.3650 and the wedge resistance suggest further bullish outlook, first opening up the 1.3795 high.

http://www.fxtimes.com/wp-content/up...11172011h1.gif

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http://www.fxtimes.com/wp-content/up...11172011h4.gif
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,215
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:05am Nov 17, 2011 7:05am
Anybody know what is driving the Euro up in a straight line?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,216
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:07am Nov 17, 2011 7:07am
i just woke up from sweet nap.

last leg people..
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,217
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:14am Nov 17, 2011 7:14am
Up-down like mad maniac. I think we have another strange day ahead... Market is making final decision wheteher to send EUR to 1.28-1.25 or not?

I thought yesterday was mad, but this what I see now - it is extreme, commodities jumping down then EUR skyrocketing back, certainly it is not safe to trade today. If I will say anything about taking positions tomorrow remind that I should take day off ... Unless markets finally decide where to go.
  • #10,218
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:23am Nov 17, 2011 7:23am
Quoting Blobik
If I will say anything about taking positions tomorrow remind that I should take day off ... Unless markets finally decide where to go.
sorry for intervening, still a noob in forex, but from what I learned so far (2-3 months) looks like market will always be "mad". The issue is if I "get" that madness too and I'm willing to follow through

Just a thought...
  • #10,219
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:27am Nov 17, 2011 7:27am
Quoting AaronWard
Anybody know what is driving the Euro up in a straight line?
The technical range traders.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,220
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:29am Nov 17, 2011 7:29am
First of all, this may be showing up a few hours after it's posted, I'm still new and my posts are delayed.

It's something I saw a few times: a growing triangle. It's formed at 38.2 retracement fib, from where it looks like there will be a growing swing up and down. My take is that it will break down, or at least this is what I saw when this pattern is forming, it follows the "bigger" trend.

Will see how this plays out.
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