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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #9,941
  • Nov 16, 2011 7:39am Nov 16, 2011 7:39am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I see trianguloidsomething forming at 15m. Wonder where is it going to shoot.

T
It's going to retrace soon. Exactly when, I can't say, but it's coming.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #9,942
  • Nov 16, 2011 7:42am Nov 16, 2011 7:42am
Quoting Blobik
Mentioned that, how Japan maintains its safe haven status with such powerful debt to GDP ratio... Can any of our fundie masterminds explain it to me in plain words .

Right now I have no idea how and what to trade, so full flatness (only the open positions still run, but I won't be able to change that in next 5 hrs, so the best I can do is hope for the best, I guess). And I keep analyzing what to do if they won't hit neither TP nor SL until I get home. After all, the longer we hang above my SLs, the higher probability that a correction...
Blobik

Reading your posts I have come to the conclusion that you have some difficulty in your focus. Please understand that I am on your side. I have some suggestions for you on how to improve your results. However before I can make those suggestions if you want them I have some questions for you.

Why do you need to have open trades while you are at work?

What hours are you home and can trade in ?

Are you trading with a Trade Plan fully understood by yourself ?

What is your monthly profit goals ?

What do you consider as your trading strengths ?

What do you consider as your trading weaknesses ?

I await your reply.

The only point in trading forex is to make money otherwise why bother unless you need a hobby to pass time with.

I look forward to your reply.

I see EUR/USD is at 1.3485

Will it go to 1.3600 or 1.3400 today ?

I do not know and I have no opinion. The markets will tell me that answer as I watch the money flow. Charts or no charts the market will move according to NEW news or not. However if the Dow goes up 250 today or down 250 today depending on events EUR/USD will move accordingly.

Even then there are exceptions like another INTERVENTION by Japan unlikely for the moment. Then the FED might want some stability so they could buy Italy Bonds in exchange for something.

Bottom Line we are not in what normal people would call FREE MARKETS.

We are in a race to the bottom in fiat currencies. Watch the price of Gold in the various currencies. Watch the Yield on the US Bonds mainly the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. As the Bonds go UP by money being parked there the Yields go down. When the Yields go up it means RISK is back on and the money flows to other asset classes such as Euro and Oil and in some cases Gold depending on interventions trying to keep Gold down. There is so much to be aware of if you want to win in forex.

Whatever style you use if at the end of the month you are losing money perhaps you might consider changing your approach.

Have a good day fellow trader's.
  • #9,943
  • Nov 16, 2011 8:32am Nov 16, 2011 8:32am
Quoting Blobik
You think she will go that high just today? I think it is too far, maybe after full 24 hrs she will be somewhere close to that. Or even next (tomorrow) NY session.
No I don't really expect it to go up that far, but if it does not, I am not interested in adding any more shorts to my current ones.
If it comes close to 1.36, I may manually open another one depending on what is happening.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,944
  • Nov 16, 2011 8:38am Nov 16, 2011 8:38am
Pay attention to the strong correlation from back on Sept 20... Highlighted in the Aqua bubble price found resistance at 1.379 broke support at 1.352 turning to resistance. Price went sideways til she dropped to 1.336... I'm thinking we may see 1.336 before a retrace... Dow/ S&P both headed south
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.gif Size: 36 KB
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,945
  • Nov 16, 2011 8:42am Nov 16, 2011 8:42am
hi every body ...
someone explain any thing about oil rising to 102 $

thanks
  • #9,946
  • Nov 16, 2011 8:48am Nov 16, 2011 8:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
No I don't really expect it to go up that far, but if it does not, I am not interested in adding any more shorts to my current ones.
If it comes close to 1.36, I may manually open another one depending on what is happening.
You scared me at first . I am sticking to what I have, too. But i believe there is coming another shorting opportunity, even in its present state EUR won't sit there forever when risk assets shoot up.

And I see oil shoot up above 100 (finally). Other risk assets don't do that well, however. But again, EUR stalls, oil flies high. I would be glad If crude inventories increased and caused a pullback to 100, so I could jump on this train again (I left it on my TPs just below 100; It seemed too risky for me to dare for more). The funny thing is, that even though I entered EUR short and oil long at the same time, they would both be in profit (EUR short still floats in green area). I think this shows how much the EUR decoupled from other risk assets (especially oil... gonna use the tram soon).

To sum up, I am glad that my assumptions turned out correct, even though I did not made a lot trading them, they worked . However, above 100 starts "risky" area for oil (at least in my opinion, 3 digit number is huge...), so I need to be extra careful about it in the future.

I still think, that this channel bottom might hold, yet to be properly tested price should got a bit lower. But it is hard to say.

Kno, I answered your questions in PM not to bother everybody with my own problems too much.
  • #9,947
  • Nov 16, 2011 8:52am Nov 16, 2011 8:52am
Sorry I was gone for so long this morning.
I had an emergency situation to deal with.
The jewelry shop of a family member was broken into and completely robbed last night.
Had to spend the morning with the police and forensic officers.

Anyway all is good now.

I see the Euro is still misbehaving and refusing to make a significant retrace so far.

I still have my sell limit order at around the 1.3601 mark. It would be nice to see it triggered today but so far it doesn't seem to want to go up that far.

Although technically it has to.

We shall see.

H1 chart attached.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 31 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,948
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:00am Nov 16, 2011 9:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
Although technically it has to.
Thought the same yesterday when I input longs on oil. Yet stubborn EUR made another low stopping me out at BE. But no problem, I can wait. Eventually it will retrace (someday), and if she makes it even lower, then I get both a nice long entry for oil and profitable exit for EUR short - so let her do as she pleases.
  • #9,949
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:05am Nov 16, 2011 9:05am
What is technical analysis? Never heard of such thing. Brainless shorting works well for me so far.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,950
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:11am Nov 16, 2011 9:11am
Quoting al5al majd
hi every body ...
someone explain any thing about oil rising to 102 $

thanks
It's approaching strong resistance. Possible rejection soon
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,951
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:11am Nov 16, 2011 9:11am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
What is technical analysis? Never heard of such thing. Brainless shorting works well for me so far.
If it works for you, keep doing it. As long as you make green pips, it's an excellent system
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,952
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:13am Nov 16, 2011 9:13am
Btw, how long are you trading PT?

Edit: If it is not too personal question.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,953
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:13am Nov 16, 2011 9:13am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
What is technical analysis? Never heard of such thing. Brainless shorting works well for me so far.
lol. glad that worked for u. i have losses when actually analysing.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #9,954
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:13am Nov 16, 2011 9:13am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
What is technical analysis? Never heard of such thing. Brainless shorting works well for me so far.
Uh... isnt that trading with the trend? I do that all the time...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #9,955
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:15am Nov 16, 2011 9:15am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
What is technical analysis? Never heard of such thing. Brainless shorting works well for me so far.
That is why traders like me are making money by knowing nothing in forex.

But, i know one day everything getting collapsed. Need to come up with something for myself before getting trapped myself, instead of trapping pips.

I have been following nothing but selling at top of the range and buying at bottom without any reason
  • #9,956
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:16am Nov 16, 2011 9:16am
Quoting AaronWard
Uh... isnt that trading with the trend? I do that all the time...
Hehehe. Trend is my friend. You should have seen the party we had yesterday.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,957
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:20am Nov 16, 2011 9:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
Sorry I was gone for so long this morning.
I had an emergency situation to deal with.
The jewelry shop of a family member was broken into and completely robbed last night.
Had to spend the morning with the police and forensic officers.
Very sorry to hear that. Sending my best for a speedy recovery.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,958
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:21am Nov 16, 2011 9:21am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Btw, how long are you trading PT?

Edit: If it is not too personal question.
No it's not too personal.
I started part time in 2001 and slowly eased in to full time between 2005 and 2009.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,959
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:25am Nov 16, 2011 9:25am
Quoting FX Tsunami
That is why traders like me are making money by knowing nothing in forex.

But, i know one day everything getting collapsed. Need to come up with something for myself before getting trapped myself, instead of trapping pips.

I have been following nothing but selling at top of the range and buying at bottom without any reason
Sounds like you have a reason... you buy when low and sell when high. You are a range trader, and this works 70% of the time.

Your key risk is a strong trend. It will flatten you. Your options are:

a) lose money
b) make more money range trading than you lose when it is trending
c) learn to identify a trend and don't trade when the market is trending
d) learn to identify a trend and trend trade while the market is trending

Obviously D is the best option. But as long as you have decent money management b and c will also make you money.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #9,960
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:26am Nov 16, 2011 9:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
No it's not too personal.
I started part time in 2001 and slowly eased in to full time between 2005 and 2009.
Phew, thats a lot. And it seems you are still learning and absorbing knowledge. Maybe thats why you survived for such a long time. Keep it going friend.

I hope I will survive at the market untill summer. Maybe I could visit you at Malta then. Never been there, but I saw photos my mother did there last summer. Beautifull place for trading .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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