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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #1,541
  • Nov 15, 2011 6:29am Nov 15, 2011 6:29am
Quoting dazzdude
I am not sure if I am qualifed to know either way (whether the market is precise or not), but I want to chip in the little that I have 'experienced'. Not sure if anyone else has ever had this experience.

I used to look at a naked chart and sometimes things were clear, but often I just saw a jumbled mess. One day, Wmd was sharing a chart with me, and it was a god awesome mess. I woud have bet my letf nad there was no rhyme, rythem or structure in that chart.

Wmd them draw a few lines and a few coulpe of levels and all of the sudden the chart...
Great post, much appreciated.


__________
michael
Be like water.
  • #1,542
  • Nov 15, 2011 6:29am Nov 15, 2011 6:29am
Having trouble spotting where I am going to anticipate (for education/practive only) a reaction to the downside. Just cannot quite spot the right point. Anyone have any thoughts/opinions (just for learning)?

dazz
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  • #1,543
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:48am Nov 15, 2011 7:48am
Reaction to a 3rd touch of one of those daily trendlines would be a good place to short. Plus profit targets soon hit on H1 timeframe. Use sell stop to catch the move on the way down and average up. TP 1 & 2 shown by dashed lines...

That would be my trade plan
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  • #1,544
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:57am Nov 15, 2011 7:57am
Quoting dazzdude
Having trouble spotting where I am going to anticipate (for education/practive only) a reaction to the downside. Just cannot quite spot the right point. Anyone have any thoughts/opinions (just for learning)?

dazz

Yesterdays trade +140 pips. Personally I wouldnt place a trade unless it gets rejected by a higher timeframe trendline.
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  • #1,545
  • Nov 15, 2011 10:05am Nov 15, 2011 10:05am
Trade update:

The trade went more than 50 pips in profit before hitting the deck again.
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I am usually Wrong
  • #1,546
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:53pm Nov 15, 2011 1:53pm
Quoting craptrader
Trade update:

The trade went more than 50 pips in profit before hitting the deck again.
Hi CT. I find anticipating a reaction or possible "options" on how price is likely to behave, then looking in hindsight to see what happened (did it play out, did not it, is there a reason?) is a good learning tool.

First chart shows there was indeed a reaction, enough to take some pips of the table (if that is your style), but also shows price is still held by the cluster support at the BOP.

Second chart looks at two possible options as to where price could move from now. I'll review this in a few days to see what happens.

The BOP form the start of the up-move is the level I am watching closely. When price gets to there, I'll be looking for some type of confluence (like dddd says, a TL most likely).

dazz
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  • #1,547
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:06pm Nov 15, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting Flava
Yesterdays trade +140 pips. Personally I wouldnt place a trade unless it gets rejected by a higher timeframe trendline.
Nice!

One good influence that dddd's posts has had on me to remind me to "look up" (larger time frame -> daily). This is another good reminder.

Coming from a scalping (1m) background, it is something I still need reminding off. Thanks.

dazz
  • #1,548
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:31pm Nov 15, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting Flava
Yesterdays trade +140 pips. Personally I wouldnt place a trade unless it gets rejected by a higher timeframe trendline.
added my daily's.

having trouble with the upward sloping channel as I see a few different ways to draw it... so for now I have removed the lines.

my possible options are looking like this (will review in a few days to see what the price behaviour does)

dazz
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  • #1,549
  • Nov 15, 2011 3:34pm Nov 15, 2011 3:34pm
friends.... some random thoughts on cable.... confluence can take many forms
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  • #1,550
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:47pm Nov 15, 2011 9:47pm
Quoting dazzdude
friends.... some random thoughts on cable.... confluence can take many forms
nice post dazz.
i really like your weekly chart of g/u.

the following video is a couple months old, however it shows a nice downtrend on the euro as well. similar to your GBPUSD.

Inserted Video
  • #1,551
  • Nov 16, 2011 1:15am Nov 16, 2011 1:15am
Quoting dazzdude
added my daily's.

having trouble with the upward sloping channel as I see a few different ways to draw it... so for now I have removed the lines.

my possible options are looking like this (will review in a few days to see what the price behaviour does)

dazz
see what happens... waiting....

dazz
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  • #1,552
  • Nov 16, 2011 1:36am Nov 16, 2011 1:36am
ozzie untested level to watch

dazz
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  • #1,553
  • Nov 16, 2011 1:46am Nov 16, 2011 1:46am
NZ, expecting LTL to hold and reject

dazz
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  • #1,554
  • Nov 16, 2011 4:42am Nov 16, 2011 4:42am
Quoting dazzdude
see what happens... waiting....

dazz
swissy update to post (thanks flava!)

dazz
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  • #1,555
  • Nov 16, 2011 4:52am Nov 16, 2011 4:52am
aud-jpy

one possibility of a reaction to an untested s/r level

dazz
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  • #1,556
  • Nov 16, 2011 5:00am Nov 16, 2011 5:00am
a question for wmd (or other experienced traders)

dazz
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  • #1,557
  • Nov 16, 2011 6:02am Nov 16, 2011 6:02am
Euro clearly in a bearish mood currently, so analysis becomes a question of not just selling but knowing where not to sell.
  • #1,558
  • Nov 16, 2011 6:14am Nov 16, 2011 6:14am
.
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  • #1,559
  • Nov 16, 2011 6:25am Nov 16, 2011 6:25am
Gold options
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  • #1,560
  • Nov 17, 2011 4:07am Nov 17, 2011 4:07am
gbpcad weekly... the 5 year channel

dazz
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