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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #9,801
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:24pm Nov 15, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting Islander
Just catching up on some reading and this is the conclusion of a long article that I've just read by Grant Williams ......
...
We are fans of Hmmm... here. Well at least PT and me.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,802
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:25pm Nov 15, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting foto
Tom,
I was serious about the cocoa thing.
Cannot quite place it, maybe someone with a better memory then mine can connect the dots.
I think Cocoa took a dump back in 2008 just before everything buckled.
That is a huge move even for commodities.
Hedge funds have been heavily involved in commodities as the inflation scare (QE) took over investing decision making. Someone blowing up would cause that type of move.

The search for clues goes on and on.
Firstly, Cocoa is a thinly traded market, so probably the most volatile and secondly, if I remember correctly, it does not have a fixed Daily Limit for its maximum range and so a move that would take several days in most commodities can happen in a single session in Cocoa.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #9,803
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:26pm Nov 15, 2011 2:26pm
Anyway, guys, especially foto, could you recommend some good reading about commodities?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,804
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:32pm Nov 15, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
We are fans of Hmmm... here. Well at least PT and me.
Excellent, Hmmmm is the only one I try NOT to miss.....the rest go in the bin...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #9,805
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:33pm Nov 15, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting Islander
.....Mario Draghi's rate cut is just the beginning. Interest rates in the EU are heading below 1% in a hurry if the recent data are anything to go by and, once QEU or the EuroTARP commence, Europe's Big Fitz , which has stayed afloat for so long against all the odds, will likely sink - suddenly and without warning.

Whoops - I'd better go and check that my life-raft -aka supply of Gold Dubloons - is safe and ready for deployment.....
yes it's most likely that there will be further interest rate cuts and also that the euro is going to depreciate further....

Isn't a weak euro helpful to Germany? Didn't Trichet (or someone else from the ECB) state a few months ago that the euro was overvalued?

If the euro devalues, surely that's going to hurt US and China exports?
patience is a virtue
  • #9,806
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:34pm Nov 15, 2011 2:34pm
Cocoa takes some pretty big swings. A glance at the weekly chart shows it looks like it respects weekly supply and demand levels fairly well.

Might be a good swing trade long around the 1800 - 2000.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,807
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:34pm Nov 15, 2011 2:34pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Even if it was driven up by some fools, I see only one big fat bear .
US corporates are doing well and it is reflected in their Q3 earnings reports.
Therefore, it's only natural that they get bid up.
Dell will be reporting earnings after market close. I expect to see profits there and a little resulting pump in the Nasdaq (which is usually followed by SP500 and Dow)

Now just because they are bid up, does not mean that it is risk on or a bull market. It is just those fund managers who have to buy something risky just to keep their jobs so they buy up cheap stock of profitable companies. Perfectly acceptable in my books.

So this may result in an upward correction in the bear market. Even better for us as it gives us better shorting opportunities

Therefore I say to those fund manager, "Go ahead, make my day"

When the market crashes, they can go get counselling

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,808
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:36pm Nov 15, 2011 2:36pm
Tom,
I will look around here. If I can find it, there was one of the first books I ever read on trading commodities.

No guarantees, it may be boxed away someplace. I will see if I can find the title and pass it on.
  • #9,809
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:41pm Nov 15, 2011 2:41pm
Quoting foto
Tom,
I will look around here. If I can find it, there was one of the first books I ever read on trading commodities...
Really appreciated. I am really looking forward to read some english book so my brain can properly boil. English is just destined to be my second language while I choosed the path of economy.

No rush, I still have Goebbels to finish.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,810
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:43pm Nov 15, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting Islander
Whoops - I'd better go and check that my life-raft -aka supply of Gold Dubloons - is safe and ready for deployment.....
Islander, Our charts look very similar

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-mn.gif Size: 21 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,811
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:44pm Nov 15, 2011 2:44pm
Tom, you are starting to sound dangerous
  • #9,812
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:46pm Nov 15, 2011 2:46pm
Quoting foto
You are starting to sound dangerous
Was this meant for Tom or me?

Maybe to avoid confusion, instead of clicking on the reply button, click on the quote button of the post to which you are responding.

ADD: I see you edited the post to include Tom's name
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,813
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:48pm Nov 15, 2011 2:48pm
Yes Sir, Captain.
  • #9,814
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:49pm Nov 15, 2011 2:49pm
Quoting foto
Yes Sir, Captain.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,815
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:53pm Nov 15, 2011 2:53pm
Islander,
Thanx for the input.
  • #9,816
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:56pm Nov 15, 2011 2:56pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Islander, Our charts look very similar

.
You going to add that chart to your butterfly collection?
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,817
  • Nov 15, 2011 3:03pm Nov 15, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting PipKiller
You going to add that chart to your butterfly collection?
Not until its right wing tassel is fully drawn
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,818
  • Nov 15, 2011 3:04pm Nov 15, 2011 3:04pm
Dell above expectation on EPS but failed to meet revenue targets.
Dell stock tanking.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,819
  • Nov 15, 2011 3:05pm Nov 15, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting foto
Tom, you are starting to sound dangerous
Hehe, I am really curious when I will stop learning. I assume that never, since market wont stop evolving either. Beeing an economist will keep you on guard whole life.

Btw, that Goebbels is insane brainiac. Really brilliant guy. I wonder what he would do with internet and TV, he had only radio.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,820
  • Nov 15, 2011 3:29pm Nov 15, 2011 3:29pm
Admit it - who broke the market? Everything stalls... Well, it is just the time when everything stalls. Next move in Asian session... maybe it is designed to let people get some sleep?
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