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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #9,781
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:31pm Nov 15, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting PipTrapper
$100 is a level that will not be broken easily.
The lower the bump from 100 goes, the better long entry I will get

Right now, priced killed my order and got up again. If she won't return lower, I will assume that market wanted to tell me sth kindly
  • #9,782
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:32pm Nov 15, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting Blobik

ADD: As I was writing, oil goes for more stop hunting. Up up and away my darling

Oh, and with all respect, we better focus on EUR before PT spots us and gets mad

Grrrrr. No not because you are writing about oil, but because you and the other oil bulls are going to force the world to convert to green & renewable energy source and that will drive up the price of photo voltaic panels and they are already expensive enough.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,783
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:32pm Nov 15, 2011 1:32pm
Tom,
The suspension of reality in Europe, kinda defines a denial mentality.
If they just keep playing make believe, well then everything is alright.

From my end I do ask if there is something that is being missed.
But oil in the $90.00 range and empty remodeling centers, tells me the States are not exactly flush with money.

The debt issue is yet to be resolved.

Pumping with credit cards, we all know how that one turned out last time.
  • #9,784
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:38pm Nov 15, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Dunno how about you but I was just joking, since I am bored from this slow ranging and still waiting for retest of 3495.

Anyway, as you probably know much better than me, commodities are goddamn volatile, especially farm (I am lacking propper english word here) goods. There may be rough winter, dry summer, too fast wind, flow, insect swarm, whatever.

T.
And China & India emerging on the global market
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,785
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:40pm Nov 15, 2011 1:40pm
Tom,
I was serious about the cocoa thing.
Cannot quite place it, maybe someone with a better memory then mine can connect the dots.
I think Cocoa took a dump back in 2008 just before everything buckled.
That is a huge move even for commodities.
Hedge funds have been heavily involved in commodities as the inflation scare (QE) took over investing decision making. Someone blowing up would cause that type of move.

The search for clues goes on and on.
  • #9,786
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:40pm Nov 15, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting BullsVsBears
Hey, stop it already. I'm already paying $4/gal for diesel at the pump. You're the reason price is skyrocketing........
Hey, before I started going long, I was shorting it like mad, don't blame me that market does not want it to go lower

1 gal (american) = around 3,785 l. In Poland 1l is around 5.42PLN (luckily, I use LPG so I don't bother with gasoline / diesel). Right now 1$ is approximately 3.3 PLN. 3,785l * 5.42PLN / 3.3PLN/$ = 6,21 $. Be happy, it is cheap. And demand for diesel is pretty low here, as high % of cars use LPG.

And, the funny thing, that gasoline price is usually slightly higher, when in Western countries usually diesel costs more. So, please do not complain.

ADD: Oh, I actually overvalued USD a little. My chart says it is 3.26. But it may be 3.30 tomorrow.
  • #9,787
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:40pm Nov 15, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting BullsVsBears
Hey, stop it already. I'm already paying $4/gal for diesel at the pump. You're the reason price is skyrocketing........

hww...i wish i could pay 4 bucks a gallon here in europe. I would just let my engine run...just for fun.

Just did the math, I pay around 6.22$ per gallon
  • #9,788
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:42pm Nov 15, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Grrrrr. No not because you are writing about oil, but because you and the other oil bulls are going to force the world to convert to green & renewable energy source and that will drive up the price of photo voltaic panels and they are already expensive enough.
Hmm, if so... What are you waiting for, get long on them. Sounds like a good position trade
  • #9,789
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:43pm Nov 15, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting foto
Tom,
The suspension of reality in Europe, kinda defines a denial mentality.
If they just keep playing make believe, well then everything is alright.......
Maybe you see behind two corners and are right that something is starting to crumble and speculators are attacking certain assets. In fact, why not attack cocoa? I just dont understand commodities and always considered them beeing field for chosen ones. Rough fight in there.

Anyway, while "farm" commodities are one of the most volatile and harmfull, why not attack em in crisis? This could very well lead to speculative attack on wheat and corn. Those are some handy goods while unemployed people are rioting in the streets.

Would be glad if some of you expanded here, since I aint educated in this subject.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,790
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:52pm Nov 15, 2011 1:52pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Maybe you see behind two corners and are right that something is starting to crumble and speculators are attacking certain assets. In fact, why not attack cocoa? I just dont understand commodities and always considered them beeing field for chosen ones. Rough fight in there.

Anyway, while "farm" commodities are one of the most volatile and harmfull, why not attack em in crisis? This could very well lead to speculative attack on wheat and corn. Those are some handy goods while unemployed people are rioting in the streets.

Would be glad if some...
If you mention crops (I believe it is how the "farm" goods are called, but If I am wrong feel free to correct me), then wheat and corn are one of these few commodities that did not start any recovery rally, they both got stuck in a quite tight range. But it is partially because overal they harvested more than estimates / or the estimates were revised higher. But if crops were a key to spot market collapse... hmm, I would be kinda shocked. I always thought that oil is the king of commodities, and eventually metals maybe (copper, as industrial metal, perhaps?). And maybe gold as it is a very specific commodity.

Still, armageddon behind the crops. Scary.
  • #9,791
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:00pm Nov 15, 2011 2:00pm
Since there were some posts by a super Bear last evening.
I do not exclude that scenario either. I do not think it is inevitable, but certainly does have a reasonable probability of coming true.

If I were to see sudden airpockets in commodity currencies or even in the Euro. That is a tipoff that a deflationary event is starting. PA starts to stagger like a drunk, as if the market does not know what hit it.

That is what happened in 08, am sure we will see a repeat PA if that type of event were to happen again.
  • #9,792
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:02pm Nov 15, 2011 2:02pm
Okay it's the final hour of US session.

Will it be pump or dump? Place your bets.

I call pump into the close.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,793
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:05pm Nov 15, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting foto
Tom,
I was serious about the cocoa thing....
To be honest, right now I consider my lack of knowledge about commodities beeing my main weakness and am going to read some about that very soon. Possibly once I finish with Goebbels, which could come in handy pretty soon too .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,794
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:05pm Nov 15, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting Blobik
Hey, before I started going long, I was shorting it like mad, don't blame me that market does not want it to go lower

1 gal (american) = around 3,785 l. In Poland 1l is around 5.42PLN (luckily, I use LPG so I don't bother with gasoline / diesel). Right now 1$ is approximately 3.3 PLN. 3,785l * 5.42PLN / 3.3PLN/$ = 6,21 $. Be happy, it is cheap. And demand for diesel is pretty low here, as high % of cars use LPG.

And, the funny thing, that gasoline price is usually slightly higher, when in Western countries usually diesel costs more....
Yeah, well for the sake of us both
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,795
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:08pm Nov 15, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting foto
Tom,
That is very interesting.
Was there a bank collapse in the cocoa growing regions or something else.
Some country going default.

edit: commodity fund in trouble. MF Global just got liquidated?
seems as though the cocoa fall was due to oversupply and china demand concerns... see more here:

http://www.wikinvest.com/futures/Cocoa_Futures
patience is a virtue
  • #9,796
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:09pm Nov 15, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting foto
Since there were some posts by a super Bear last evening.
I do not exclude that scenario either. I do not think it is inevitable, but certainly does have a reasonable probability of coming true.

If I were to see sudden airpockets in commodity currencies or even in the Euro. That is a tipoff that a deflationary event is starting. PA starts to stagger like a drunk, as if the market does not know what hit it.

That is what happened in 08, am sure we will see a repeat PA if that type of event were to happen again.
Hmm, either I am too sleepy or my english sucks. Can sb (or you) translate it in simple words, cause I didn't get what the symptoms of 08 crisis were...
  • #9,797
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:11pm Nov 15, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting foto
Tom,
The suspension of reality in Europe, kinda defines a denial mentality.
If they just keep playing make believe, well then everything is alright.

From my end I do ask if there is something that is being missed.
But oil in the $90.00 range and empty remodeling centers, tells me the States are not exactly flush with money.

The debt issue is yet to be resolved.

Pumping with credit cards, we all know how that one turned out last time.

Just catching up on some reading and this is the conclusion of a long article that I've just read by Grant Williams ......

But before we finish for today, we return to our own ‘Big Fitz' of the currency markets - the Euro - as it struggles to stay afloat against all the odds. So far, it has been managing quite nicely, although the technical picture has been deteriorating rather dramatically - see chart. Once the now-inevitable European money-printing begins, it's hard to make a case for a strong Euro -particularly in light of weakening economic data across the core of the region- from the French trade balance (which showed a €6.303 billion deficit in September - the seventh largest single-month deficit in French history and a staggering 46% m-o-m decline), to a plunge in French exports that matched the lows seen in 2008-9, to Germany's Industrial output (which fell almost 3% in September) and Industrial Orders (which fell 3.6% m-o-m) and on to the rise in unemployment in Germany - the first such increase for 28 months.
Mario Draghi's rate cut is just the beginning. Interest rates in the EU are heading below 1% in a hurry if the recent data are anything to go by and, once QEU or the EuroTARP commence, Europe's Big Fitz , which has stayed afloat for so long against all the odds, will likely sink - suddenly and without warning.

Whoops - I'd better go and check that my life-raft -aka supply of Gold Dubloons - is safe and ready for deployment.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #9,798
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:17pm Nov 15, 2011 2:17pm
When the financial crisis first hit, we the general public had no way of knowing what was really going on.

But you can bet your last dollar or Euro that somebody was aware of the situation.

There was a mad dash for USD ownership and the Yen got very strong very fast. Pairs such as the GBP/JPY dumped 500 pips in a day. Sometimes 100 pips in a minute.

These are signs of great stress in currencies.

So if a pair is trading along just fine and out of nowhere drops 50 pips on a minute bar, then works to right itself. Possibly a short while later the same thing happpens, just be on your guard, for abnormal price action says something is wrong.
  • #9,799
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:19pm Nov 15, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting lumesh
hww...i wish i could pay 4 bucks a gallon here in europe. I would just let my engine run...just for fun.

Just did the math, I pay around 6.22$ per gallon
On that note
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,800
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:21pm Nov 15, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting PipTrapper
...
Will it be pump or dump? Place your bets.

I call pump into the close.
Even if it was driven up by some fools, I see only one big fat bear .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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