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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #9,761
  • Nov 15, 2011 12:38pm Nov 15, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I already hold it and yes, from today, but it seems PK is going to hit my SL soon
Oh sorry I misunderstood I thought you opened (and closed) 357 trades, out of which only one survived 357 trades on one day, like a robot
  • #9,762
  • Nov 15, 2011 12:38pm Nov 15, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting PipKiller
Remember there's still some unfinished business up aroung the 1.3950 PT... Market isn't rational
Nope. 1.3950 has no unfinished business. That was at 1.37 area and it's long been taken care of

The only remaining unfinished business now is a swing high to form a lower high and since we have not yet made a lower low, that lower high can be anywhere between 1.36 and 1.37

After that, we're off to 1.3380
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,763
  • Nov 15, 2011 12:49pm Nov 15, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting Blobik
Yep, you may have the point. That is why the SL is at BE. But oil is one of things, that takes even shortes break in risk off to retake its losses asap. It looks like it was about to go on a bullish rampage and "only this stupid eurozone was the reason it is not making few hundred pips a day in a straight line". So, if it really wants to get above 100, "why not" I ask. Probably the Iran nuclear program and winter season on the north cause the demand to increase, and supply might be not on 100% cause the price was in a downtrend until it broke...
true..very true...i suggest you to trail it cause then it might never stop you out (it sure as hell seems that way). The price of oil IS actually very scary, i have long been afraid that the run for the commodities could turn into high speculative inflation. As Qe's are common knowledge these days, everybody assumes that the FED will jump in with money supply when things get a little worrysome.
  • #9,764
  • Nov 15, 2011 12:50pm Nov 15, 2011 12:50pm
Europe Gets It

The stock market seems to be the last group still buying into the Europe "gets it" argument.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...crediteq_0.png

What has Europe done:

- Instituted short selling bans on as many products as possible
- Instituted new rules to let the EU pick and choose when to use rating agencies
- Redefined "prudent risk reducing bond sale" into "attack on a country"
- an ECB rate cut, that only showed Trichet wasn't wrong to leave rates alone since it had absolutely zero impact on sovereign debt yields (and may be part of the reason we are getting the renewed sell-off, since it signaled fear)
- Got people to start thinking about what it would mean to leave the Euro or the EU
- Overthrew the government in two countries and put in "technocrats" who seem to have limited support - not that surprising since no one voted for them

What Europe hasn't done (that they were supposed to):

- Leveraged EFSF - a 7 page idea sheet with no typos is about the extent of it
- IIF voluntary EFSF backed 50% NPV reducing haircut for Greece - nada
- More IMF money - not so much (though the BRIC countries may take on bigger quotas - probably because the US and EU are running out of money)
- BRIC direct support - not yet, but on the other hand, since Regling hasn't had a real product to offer, they might yet come in on something

What Europe hasn't done, and wasn't in the plans:

- Massive printing of money by the ECB, this now seems expected by everyone, yet was not part of the plan and there are lots of good reasons not to do it, and if the politicians care more about this year's bonus pool, they may actually resist this demand and try and figure out a solution, that while short term painful, has a real chance of long term success.

The credit markets now seem to be fully diverging from equities, and offer more opportunities here than stocks. In credit, Europe is starting to look attractive versus the US. Sovereign credit looks better than bank credit in Europe. High Yield may not be bad here, but we think HYG/JNK definitely got ahead of themselves at these prices.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,765
  • Nov 15, 2011 12:54pm Nov 15, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting lumesh
true..very true...i suggest you to trail it cause then it might never stop you out (it sure as hell seems that way). The price of oil IS actually very scary, i have long been afraid that the run for the commodities could turn into high speculative inflation. As Qe's are common knowledge these days, everybody assumes that the FED will jump in with money supply when things get a little worrysome.
If the $100 psych level gets busted, it would put a damper on growth as it would reduce expendable income in favor of higher heating and transportation costs... and all this for oil contracts that will never be delivered. That's the power of market speculation. It creates a fictitious demand.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,766
  • Nov 15, 2011 12:59pm Nov 15, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting PipTrapper
If the $100 psych level gets busted, it would put a damper on growth as it would reduce expendable income in favor of higher heating and transportation costs... and all this for oil contracts that will never be delivered. That's the power of market speculation. It creates a fictitious demand.
Exactly.

Something that does not exist becomes the something that very much exists
  • #9,767
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:03pm Nov 15, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting Yuchen
Really ?
I did not see any surprise yet.
Ya - Because your eyes havent train so Well yet
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #9,768
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:14pm Nov 15, 2011 1:14pm
Poor cocoa.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,769
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:18pm Nov 15, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Poor cocoa.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,770
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:19pm Nov 15, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Poor cocoa.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx
... Does that mean cheaper chocolate? I like chocolate.

And Gold long killed itself at BE. Poor gold... suicidial maniac. Oil long still running.

ADD: but as I see the price chewing down, may be not for long...
ADD2: R.I.P. we are getting a correction in a correction, perhaps. So I will try reentering lower.
  • #9,771
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:20pm Nov 15, 2011 1:20pm
Tom,
That is very interesting.
Was there a bank collapse in the cocoa growing regions or something else.
Some country going default.

edit: commodity fund in trouble. MF Global just got liquidated?
  • #9,772
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:21pm Nov 15, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting Blobik
... Does that mean cheap choclate?

And Gold long killed itself at BE. Poor gold... suicidial maniac. Oil long still running.

ADD: but as I see the price chewing down, may be not for long...
$100 is a level that will not be broken easily.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,773
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:22pm Nov 15, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting foto
Tom,
That is very interesting.
Was there a bank collapse in the cocoa growing regions or something else.
Some country going default.

edit: commodity fund in trouble. MF Global just got liquidated?
Yes... Turks and Cocoas
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,774
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:22pm Nov 15, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting Blobik
So this means I am sleeping bear. As I wait for the correction to short from there . And meanwhile I let my inner commodity bull to get out for a while. Amazingly, my gold long almost immediately went in my direction, and I finally decided to try oil long on a dip. Oil still waits for it SL at BE, gold is already protected

So, guys, don't short her badly yet, let everything breathe and get a bit higher so I get some profit on my commodity longs and then join the bear party Especially you Tom, please don't blow my SLs with shorting...
I strictly stated, "I have multiple personalities Bear today Bull tomorrow"... We're in the same boat just on different ships
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,775
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:24pm Nov 15, 2011 1:24pm
I like the Bahamas better.
Nothing syrupy about those islands.
  • #9,776
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:25pm Nov 15, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Europe Gets It

The stock market seems to be the last group still buying into the Europe "gets it" argument...
I find it quite comfortable and somewhat funny how we are nesting in totally bearish attitude.

I dont want to get caught by bull from the back, but well, I was laughing to EMU since I first read about Maastricht.

Ding Ding, there shall be time, when the end comes and from the ashes new currency will be born. Let us mourn.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,777
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:26pm Nov 15, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting foto
Tom,
That is very interesting.
Was there a bank collapse in the cocoa growing regions or something else.
Some country going default.

edit: commodity fund in trouble. MF Global just got liquidated?
Unfortunately this is just the start of institutional failures. Who really knows how many funds are overweight EZ sovereign debt? Obviously they are not going to disclose it to the media in this environment of market fear until they absolutely have to... like when they file for chapter 11.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,778
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:28pm Nov 15, 2011 1:28pm
Quoting Blobik
Yep, you may have the point. That is why the SL is at BE. But oil is one of things, that takes even shortes break in risk off to retake its losses asap. It looks like it was about to go on a bullish rampage and "only this stupid eurozone was the reason it is not making few hundred pips a day in a straight line". So, if it really wants to get above 100, "why not" I ask. Probably the Iran nuclear program and winter season on the north cause the demand to increase, and supply might be not on 100% cause the price was in a downtrend until it broke...
Hey, stop it already. I'm already paying $4/gal for diesel at the pump. You're the reason price is skyrocketing........
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,779
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:30pm Nov 15, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting foto
Tom,
That is very interesting.
...
Dunno how about you but I was just joking, since I am bored from this slow ranging and still waiting for retest of 3495.

Anyway, as you probably know much better than me, commodities are goddamn volatile, especially farm (I am lacking propper english word here) goods. There may be rough winter, dry summer, too fast wind, flow, insect swarm, whatever.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,780
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:31pm Nov 15, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Nope. 1.3950 has no unfinished business. That was at 1.37 area and it's long been taken care of

The only remaining unfinished business now is a swing high to form a lower high and since we have not yet made a lower low, that lower high can be anywhere between 1.36 and 1.37

After that, we're off to 1.3380
Hold on PT, let me grab my note pad so I can take notes..... Ok, got it!:nerd:
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
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