... or at least won't be propped up as much as others. Does that mean that hedging EUR short with some risk assets will be a good strategy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #9,701
- Nov 15, 2011 7:29am Nov 15, 2011 7:29am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
- #9,702
- Nov 15, 2011 7:30am Nov 15, 2011 7:30am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
... or at least won't be propped up as much as others. Does that mean that hedging EUR short with some risk assets will be a good strategy
Because then you would be exposed to a scenario when the global economy will slow down more than anticipated (China for example). There is a risk of that happening.
In that event, as ironical as it may sound, EUR (and other shitty assets) will actually outperform those risk assets (equities for example). Yes, both will go down but risk assets will dump way more aggressively. For example, look at what happened to EURAUD in fear of recession environment (2008, 2011 Aug, 2010 May when you actually had the peak of the euro doom back then)
- #9,703
- Nov 15, 2011 7:31am Nov 15, 2011 7:31am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #9,704
- Edited 7:48am Nov 15, 2011 7:36am | Edited 7:48am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Found a place to step in short on the 15 minute @ 1.3558 for a shot at a push below daily trend line support and the 1.3500. Small position 0.5% of risk capitol with stop just above todays high at 1.3645. TargetLove to see 1.3145 or lower. Will trail and adjust as she goes.
I am in simmilar position. Lost 40 pips building and currently holding 2 positions from 3570.
It is funny with those US data. Noone is paying attention to them since Obama crucified rating agencies for that temporary downgrade. Anyway, EU is still in much worse mess.
I may be dead wrong but I'd rather be dead wrong about this than dead wrong about going short right now.
Strictly from a technical and trader psychology perspective (Ignoring economics for a minute), price has to correct, especially with the better than expected US econ data.
So be careful as I expect a correction to the 1.36xx zone
ADD: I have attached an H1 chart here. Pay special attention to the Fibo lines. In my experience with fibo behavior, more often than not, when price reaches the 88.6% fibo line, price retraces back up to at least the 61.8% line and the majority of the time also keeps going all the way to 38.2% I have mentioned this before in previous posts. It is like a retrace preceeding a continuation.
Also note the MacD bullish divergence and also the fact that the RSX is pointing up above the 50 line.
.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #9,705
- Nov 15, 2011 7:36am Nov 15, 2011 7:36am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
I am in simmilar position. Lost 40 pips building and currently holding 2 positions from 3570.
It is funny with those US data. Noone is paying attention to them since Obama crucified rating agencies for that temporary downgrade. Anyway, EU is still in much worse mess.
T.
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #9,706
- Nov 15, 2011 7:39am Nov 15, 2011 7:39am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
- #9,707
- Nov 15, 2011 7:41am Nov 15, 2011 7:41am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
....
So be careful as I expect a correction to the 1.36xx zone
. But I covered some now, so total loss is 26 pips.I have pending sells at 3582, 3608 and 3666. Those are my retracement levels, and I see them very possible.
Edit:
...Also note the MacD bullish divergence and also the fact that the RSX is pointing up above the 50 line.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #9,708
- Nov 15, 2011 7:44am Nov 15, 2011 7:44am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
This afternoon I've made 3 sells off the 3555 area and have banked pips each time when price has stalled in the 3525 area..
.Edit: ah I have 3523 as support, so in fact I wouldnt get hit even if I wanted to TP. Just once.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #9,709
- Edited 8:15am Nov 15, 2011 7:54am | Edited 8:15am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
I feel you may be jumping the gun a bit.
I may be dead wrong but I'd rather be dead wrong about this than dead wrong about going short right now.
Strictly from a technical and trader psychology perspective (Ignoring economics for a minute), price has to correct, especially with the better than expected US econ data.
So be careful as I expect a correction to the 1.36xx zone
.
Hi PT - technically, I expected more reaction to the high vol 60m doji / pin bar that formed the low, but later I noticed todays highest vol on the 15m is in a spinning top / doji - often a sign of uncertainty and there was some bearish divergence too, suggesting - IMO - weakness.......or is it the Big Guys building a large position for their next move?......
Either way, its too late for me to go for another entry - I'll keep those slippery pips safely in my bank.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #9,710
- Nov 15, 2011 7:58am Nov 15, 2011 7:58am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
I feel you may be jumping the gun a bit.
I may be dead wrong but I'd rather be dead wrong about this than dead wrong about going short right now.
Strictly from a technical and trader psychology perspective (Ignoring economics for a minute), price has to correct, especially with the better than expected US econ data.
So be careful as I expect a correction to the 1.36xx zone
.
Smaller timeframes shows this thing on a grind higher in a nice little channel. 60 minute is forming a possible bull flag. Futures are mixed and I hate trading this choppy crapola.
I'm looking to re enter a short at the fresh supply zone on the 240 at around 1.3610
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
- #9,711
- Nov 15, 2011 7:58am Nov 15, 2011 7:58am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
GJ man, you did better than me for sure. I was building from 3555 as well, but never took at 3525, since I was waiting for 3495. Thats where my losses come from
Edit: ah I have 3523 as support, so in fact I wouldnt get hit even if I wanted to TP. Just once.
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #9,712
- Nov 15, 2011 8:03am Nov 15, 2011 8:03am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
Thanks, but LOL Tom, now you sound just like Medici - I use a wider brush for painting my S&R zones, it makes life less stressful - for me.....
.But anyway, my S/R zones tend to be thick as brick, usually @ 30 - 40 pips. 3523 was just one line I spotted somewhat around wednesday last week. I considered it very weak but working.
Edit: Ah found him. And you have thread Medici and Islander
. Nice one.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #9,713
- Nov 15, 2011 8:11am Nov 15, 2011 8:11am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Dunno who is Medici
But anyway, my S/R zones tend to be thick as brick, usually @ 30 - 40 pips. 3523 was just one line I spotted somewhat around wednesday last week. I considered it very weak but working.
Edit: Ah found him. And you have thread Medici and Islander
OK - so I'm not talking about the rather more famous Italian Banker, whose rather dead http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif but as you've already found, the present day one here in FF http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif - he's rather good a finding obscure levels off which price often turns to the pip
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #9,714
- Nov 15, 2011 8:16am Nov 15, 2011 8:16am
The short answer is No.
Because then you would be exposed to a scenario when the global economy will slow down more than anticipated (China for example). There is a risk of that happening.
In that event, as ironical as it may sound, EUR (and other shitty assets) will actually outperform those risk assets (equities for example). Yes, both will go down but risk assets will dump way more aggressively. For example, look at what happened to EURAUD in fear of recession environment (2008, 2011 Aug, 2010 May when you actually had the peak of the euro...
- #9,715
- Nov 15, 2011 8:22am Nov 15, 2011 8:22am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #9,716
- Nov 15, 2011 8:25am Nov 15, 2011 8:25am
How right you were. Now it's leaving the station without us. LOL
Oh well, nothing moves in a straight line in Forex. It will be back and we can jump back on at the top of the pullback.
). I am going home, so maybe I will get a promising pullback to short. Or maybe she fakes, she likes doing it...
- #9,718
- Nov 15, 2011 8:31am Nov 15, 2011 8:31am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #9,719
- Nov 15, 2011 8:35am Nov 15, 2011 8:35am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
How right you were. Now it's leaving the station without us. LOL
Oh well, nothing moves in a straight line in Forex. It will be back and we can jump back on at the top of the pullback.
Now we at least know what they wanted to do at the fix and the European close.
Price is so close to daily and weekly demand levels I'd rather look for a swing long right now.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
- #9,720
- Nov 15, 2011 8:40am Nov 15, 2011 8:40am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Selling pressure does not appear to be coming to an end.
It just does not have the sense of a climax end.
PA chewed through support at 1.3600, took some time but it stayed in a small chanel then turned down this morning.
We may be having the long awaited testing of 1.3500 would expect a repeat of the 1.3600 level at this juncture.
This is getting interesting.
When the market makes nonsensical moves, I prefer to wait for it to start behaving again.
Besides the fact that I do not sell swing lows or buy swing highs, the fact that it has not corrected past a 23.6% fib level yet has me even more convinced to stay out of additional short positions for now.
I already have two floating shorts from 1.3767ish for a total of approx 525 aggregate pips so I am quite happy to wait.
However, if this sucker keeps falling to 1.3145 without stopping for me, I'm going to be very pissed off. lol
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it