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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #9,681
  • Nov 15, 2011 8:53am Nov 15, 2011 8:53am
Quoting lumesh
Pitprapper,

how do i send you a PM ?
oops




i meant PIPTRAPPER....yes....PIPTRAPPER
  • #9,682
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:01am Nov 15, 2011 9:01am
Quoting lumesh
Pitprapper,

how do i send you a PM ?
I just had to add you to my buddy list.
Go ahead now.

PitPrapper
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,683
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:04am Nov 15, 2011 9:04am
I have previously mentioned how the EUR will soon start to diverge from the SP500 and a couple of you seemed to show interest in that. So since it has already begun, I thought I would show you in an overlayed chart.

Here it is.

The endgame is near.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,684
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:04am Nov 15, 2011 9:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
I just had to add you to my buddy list.
Go ahead now.

PitPrapper
  • #9,685
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:10am Nov 15, 2011 9:10am
For whatever its worth.
20 SMA hourly contained price overnight sesion. Should contain at least one or two attempts to breech it on the upside.

With todays releases so far am at a loss to believe that the US consumer will lift Europe. US domestic consumption will stay the hand of the Fed from justifying further QE and most likely Fisher speaking at 12.30 EST will support that view. But he is a, we have done enough Fed member.

Europe remains a mess, and that leadership blames markets for speaking the obvious. Markets will not take that as a positive.

We seem to be turning back an attempted rally to todays 50% retrace level at the 1.3570 level

As usual someone is trying to convince the markets that Rome is not burning. So I will look to take something off the table before the end of the European/US overlap and look for some form of resistance above current levels to form and short again.

I have held shorts thinking we would get more of a test of the 1.3500 level. So far that has not happened.
  • #9,686
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:12am Nov 15, 2011 9:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have previously mentioned how the EUR will soon start to diverge from the SP500 and a couple of you seemed to show interest in that. So since it has already begun, I thought I would show you in an overlayed chart.

Here it is.

The endgame is near.
.

Great visual.

i was wondering if it's somehow possible to visualize the SP500/DAX spread (or simply SP relative % movements minus DAX relative % movements....i say relative cause dax is more volatile) and compare THAT to EUR ? DAX has constantly been underperforming SP so it would be interesting to see how that looks like.
  • #9,687
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:13am Nov 15, 2011 9:13am
Quoting PipTrapper
The endgame is near.
Thank you for your reply to my earlier post. Can you elaborate on what you mean by this?

Thanks.
  • #9,688
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:13am Nov 15, 2011 9:13am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have previously mentioned how the EUR will soon start to diverge from the SP500 and a couple of you seemed to show interest in that. So since it has already begun, I thought I would show you in an overlayed chart.

Here it is.

The endgame is near.

.
hmm, interesting.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,689
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:13am Nov 15, 2011 9:13am
EURO

She's a pretty lady!
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  • #9,690
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:14am Nov 15, 2011 9:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
This has more to do with the capital flows between safe haven currencies and risk assets. The USD is a safe haven. When risk is on and capital flows from safe haven to risk assets, this devalues the USD as supply increases when it is exchanged for the risk assets, in the same way that the risk currencies increase in value as there is more demand for them.

What we have right now is very good US numbers that are offset by the European debt crisis. Since we are in a global economy, bad news in developed economies (such as Europe or the US) is bad...
I would add, that there are probably 3 countries that economical data are strangely correlated with the currency rates - US, China and Japan. US and Chinese data impact whole markets (especially turning risk on when good and triggering risk off when bad), and Japanese data seem not to be able to influence Yen in times of crysis. Even BOJ does not have an idea how to bring Yen down, everyone just keep buying until intervention, then they sell for 4 hrs, and then back to buying at a discount.

And interpreting US data as a whole is extremely hard. Sometimes good data may strenghten USD (especially when they fade off QE babbling by Fed) and sometimes punch it to its lows (as a general risk on triggers). One thing you may be quite sure, they will at least make some spikes (this or that way), so sometimes scalping them might be profitable. Therefore it is good to have your charts close during US releases.

Overall, US data are high-probablity triggers for technical movements, but since EZ nukes the market often recently, so they become a good 'rival' in triggering hope rallies and risk-off runs.
  • #9,691
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:15am Nov 15, 2011 9:15am
Quoting vbmark
Thank you for your reply to my earlier post. Can you elaborate on what you mean by this?

Thanks.
Allow me to answer with PTs favourite pic .
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,692
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:15am Nov 15, 2011 9:15am
Don't forget KING DOLLAR!
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  • #9,693
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:15am Nov 15, 2011 9:15am
Market talk of an Italian sovereign downgrade - unconfirmed
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,694
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:18am Nov 15, 2011 9:18am
very nice 15m candle formed.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,695
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:19am Nov 15, 2011 9:19am
Quoting vbmark
Thank you for your reply to my earlier post. Can you elaborate on what you mean by this?

Thanks.
I mean that the Euro is decoupling from other risk assets.
This means that even if the other risk assets rally, it will no longer mean that the Euro will follow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,696
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:19am Nov 15, 2011 9:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have previously mentioned how the EUR will soon start to diverge from the SP500 and a couple of you seemed to show interest in that. So since it has already begun, I thought I would show you in an overlayed chart.

Here it is.

The endgame is near.

.
I would call EUR completely doomed when it will make lower highs when S&P makes higher highs. But this is amazing chart indeed. I wonder where will the price be when I come home. Maybe some retrace... at last . If EUR won't start falling some oil longs will be tempting me. Even yesterday longing oil had chances of getting out in profit as oil struggled to go up (only this bad bad sinking Eurotanic pulled it down again).
  • #9,697
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:21am Nov 15, 2011 9:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
I mean that the Euro is decoupling from other risk assets.
This means that even if the other risk assets rally, it will no longer mean that the Euro will follow.
... or at least won't be propped up as much as others. Does that mean that hedging EUR short with some risk assets will be a good strategy
  • #9,698
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:23am Nov 15, 2011 9:23am
When you get a chance, check out this link. If you win you have to give me 10%
http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/11/news...tional+News%29
  • #9,699
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:23am Nov 15, 2011 9:23am
CNBC is focused on beating the Euro horse to death today and nobody gives a rip about the US data. NY equities markets had their shot at closing the gap at open and now she dives. Not much of a bounce off the 1.3516 demand area.

Found a place to step in short on the 15 minute @ 1.3558 for a shot at a push below daily trend line support and the 1.3500. Small position 0.5% of risk capitol with stop just above todays high at 1.3645. Target Love to see 1.3145 or lower. Will trail and adjust as she goes.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,700
  • Nov 15, 2011 9:27am Nov 15, 2011 9:27am
Quoting PipKiller
...
Found a place to step in short on the 15 minute @ 1.3558 for a shot ...
I am in simmilar position. Lost 40 pips building and currently holding 2 positions from 3570.

It is funny with those US data. Noone is paying attention to them since Obama crucified rating agencies for that temporary downgrade. Anyway, EU is still in much worse mess.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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