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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #9,661
  • Nov 15, 2011 6:30am Nov 15, 2011 6:30am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I have loaded some more at 3545 SL at BE. 600 floating profit now, excluding my lucky .

I will stop posting now as I am going to build more short positions for a downfall and need to pay attention.

Good luck all.

T.
600 floating Impressive bag of pips
  • #9,662
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:05am Nov 15, 2011 7:05am
Cable led the retrace to above its 61.8 fib and turned back before €, so it was rude not to sell that as well as adding to € at its 38% level
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #9,663
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:08am Nov 15, 2011 7:08am
Quoting The Fool
Hi PT,

Do you have a link to more info on the ecb bond purchase sterilization operations?

Thanks.
Follow this link and then click on the "Ad-hoc Communications" tab
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,664
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:19am Nov 15, 2011 7:19am
European Debt Crisis: You Haven't Seen Anything Yet

Though the daily market gyrations might indicate otherwise, realization is beginning to creep in that the European debt crisis and its effect on the U.S. will not take days, weeks or months to unwind—but years.

How many years is up for debate, but a common range bandied about among investment experts is two to five.

That prolonged time frame — which entails the period it will take to reduce government spending, come up with workable debt repayment plans, and, most likely, witness the contagion that will follow — means that the market tumult that the crisis has brought also won't be going away anytime soon, either.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,665
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:30am Nov 15, 2011 7:30am
I'm still holding my shorts at 1.37662 and 1.37676.
I am waiting for the US econ data to come out in about 10 mins
Expecting Retail Sales, PPI m/m and Empite State Mfg Index at 1330hrs GMT followed by Business Inventories m/m at 1500hrs GMT
If we get good numbers, I expect there may be somewhat of a relief rally on risk assets. If that is the case, that would provide me with setup for another short position.

M15 and H1 charts attached

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,666
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:33am Nov 15, 2011 7:33am
But no reaction... yet
Now we see if the floor traders in NY & Chicago react at 9:30am EST

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,667
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:40am Nov 15, 2011 7:40am
Can someone please tell me why after we just got good news on USD and all news of EUR is bad that price is just ranging right now? And actually bullish on the 5 min chart?
  • #9,668
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:42am Nov 15, 2011 7:42am
Here is the updated US econ data table and charts

Both the EZ and US Tables & charts can be found on page 1 and they will be updated regularly.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,669
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:47am Nov 15, 2011 7:47am
Im patiently waiting for my opportunity. I missed out last round, but you guys aren't leaving me this time. Im watching resistance around 3600
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I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,670
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:49am Nov 15, 2011 7:49am
Quoting vbmark
Can someone please tell me why after we just got good news on USD and all news of EUR is bad that price is just ranging right now? And actually bullish on the 5 min chart?
This has more to do with the capital flows between safe haven currencies and risk assets. The USD is a safe haven. When risk is on and capital flows from safe haven to risk assets, this devalues the USD as supply increases when it is exchanged for the risk assets, in the same way that the risk currencies increase in value as there is more demand for them.

What we have right now is very good US numbers that are offset by the European debt crisis. Since we are in a global economy, bad news in developed economies (such as Europe or the US) is bad news for the whole world. Therefore, good news from US + bad news from Europe = stalemate.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,671
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:51am Nov 15, 2011 7:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
This has more to do with the capital flows between safe haven currencies and risk assets. The USD is a safe haven. When risk is on and capital flows from safe haven to risk assets, this devalues the USD as supply increases when it is exchanged for the risk assets, in the same way that the risk currencies increase in value as there is more demand for them.

What we have right now is very good US numbers that are offset by the European debt crisis. Since we are in a global economy, bad news in developed economies (such as Europe or the US) is...
Great breakdown PT! You're the man
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,672
  • Nov 15, 2011 8:08am Nov 15, 2011 8:08am
2011/11/15 09:03:40EUR GOVTS: Euro threat to suspend credit ratings illustrates inability to grasp real problems

LONDON, Nov 15 (IFR) - The comments were out Monday but they are so illustrative of the Euro policy makers' inability to grasp the problems afflicting the Eurozone they still deserve attention.

At any rate, European Commissioner for Internal Markets and Services Michel Barnier declared credit ratings for governments may be suspended if that government receives external support and/or if the rating would "aggravate or accelerate the instability or irrationality of the markets".

Firstly IFR would like to be sure Mr Barnier realizes that suspension of any nation's credit rating would be tantamount to rating it as junk regardless.

Secondly, IFR would question Mr Barnier's ability to institute a suspension of any particular ratings agency's verdict on credit. Certainly the EU will be able to do this for any agency which has substantive business interests in the Eurozone (which does cover the big three), but the issue does still raise jurisdiction concerns and may also not sit well with ratings agencies which have less attachment to business within Europe; Dagong -- the state ratings agency of China -- springs to mind especially when Europe is desperate for foreign cash.

Finally there is the actual quote mentioned above itself, wherein the markets are assumed to be "unstable" and "irrational".

Unstable yes, but "irrational" applies much more to Euro policy maker reactions, or the Euro framework itself, rather than markets. Consider investors are very rightly debating the future of the Euro with policy makers clearly incapable of providing a definitive response.

From which it is entirely understandable that Euro markets should be so unstable.

So rather than Euro policy makers blaming the ratings agencies or markets, we really should be seeing a much more definitive response coming from them instead. [email protected]
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,673
  • Nov 15, 2011 8:12am Nov 15, 2011 8:12am
Quoting BullsVsBears
Great breakdown PT! You're the man
Thanks BvB. Are you still flat?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,674
  • Nov 15, 2011 8:16am Nov 15, 2011 8:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
2011/11/15 09:03:40 EUR GOVTS: Euro threat to suspend credit ratings illustrates inability to grasp real problems

[i]LONDON, Nov 15 (IFR) - The comments were out Monday but they are so illustrative of the Euro policy makers' inability to grasp the problems afflicting the Eurozone they still deserve attention.

At any rate, European Commissioner for Internal Markets and Services Michel Barnier declared credit ratings for governments may be suspended if that government receives external support and/or if the rating would "aggravate or...
When your eyes offend you, pluck them out

-- Anonymous
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #9,675
  • Nov 15, 2011 8:20am Nov 15, 2011 8:20am
Ding ding in 10 mins. I wonder where will NY boys rush. Pending sells at 3582, 3608, 3666, still building manual shorts but bulls keep hitting my SL, bastards.

edit: ah wrong chart, sry
edit2: fixed
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,676
  • Nov 15, 2011 8:28am Nov 15, 2011 8:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thanks BvB. Are you still flat?
Yeah, I didn't want to jump in the trade last minute. I figured she'll retrace a bit and I'll get another chance. I'm thinking sideways or bullish to 3650-3600
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,677
  • Edited 8:47am Nov 15, 2011 8:36am | Edited 8:47am
Sorry, i'm sure some one mentioned this.. but what time is the Greek T bill auction?
add: Italian bond still going up..
6.47 on 2 years
  • #9,678
  • Nov 15, 2011 8:49am Nov 15, 2011 8:49am
Quoting vbmark
Can someone please tell me why after we just got good news on USD and all news of EUR is bad that price is just ranging right now? And actually bullish on the 5 min chart?

The easiest way to understand this is to think about it in terms of interest rates on currencies. If global econ data improves then money seeks highest yield by funding it with lowest yield.

Thus, AUD and the like (NZD, even EUR etc) are favoured against lower yields like USD. (i'll explain about yen and chf later if there's interest). Aud would also be favoured against EUR and GBP in the same way and EUR would be favoured against GBP and USD as well. That is to say all other things being equal (which in today's environment holds utmost importance ).

When i look at the fundamental trends i try to average (weighted) out the global growth outlook (expectation) picture by looking at fundies data in the U.S., China and euro area. Every part of the world is so closely related where one's economic outlook impacts the other and so on. I wonder what would happen if china's bubble would turn into a "burst" since this is mainly what has driven the developed countries growth in the recent years.
  • #9,679
  • Nov 15, 2011 8:52am Nov 15, 2011 8:52am
I may jump in a small position @1.3577 if sell limit not reached @ 1.3592

AUDUSD @ 1.0162 now afloat!
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  • #9,680
  • Nov 15, 2011 8:52am Nov 15, 2011 8:52am
Pitprapper,

how do i send you a PM ?
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