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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #9,521
  • Nov 14, 2011 8:29am Nov 14, 2011 8:29am
I just closed my 1.3710 short at 1.3635 for 75 pips profit.
I will let the two short positions at 1.3767 and 1.3766 ride
Let's see what NY brings us.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,522
  • Nov 14, 2011 8:41am Nov 14, 2011 8:41am
PipTrapper, nice! This is a perfect trend on M5. I missed it completely. Next time I pay more attention to your analysis.
  • #9,523
  • Edited 9:02am Nov 14, 2011 8:46am | Edited 9:02am
hey PipTrapper, what timezone are you in currently?
  • #9,524
  • Nov 14, 2011 8:57am Nov 14, 2011 8:57am
Even the SP500 index is facing some support where we find confluence of a variety of MAs (55, 100, 144 & 200)

To get through that requires -pessimism or fear.

Let's see how it plays out. I'm thinking a few rejected candles till the demand is absorbed.

SP500 H1 chart attached

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,525
  • Nov 14, 2011 9:20am Nov 14, 2011 9:20am
ECB buys sovereign bonds from Italy and Spain and maybe even Portugal.

If they do not sterilize these bond purchases by selling them again or by selling other securities, it amounts to Quantitative Easing.

Therefore, every week the ECB conducts a tender for fixed deposits in order to bring the money supply down to where it was before the bond purchases.

So far since they started the SMP, they have a net outstanding difference of €187 Billion because they are only managing to sell about €4 Billion in term deposits every week, yet the bond purchases are overtaking that €4 Billion figure.

This has the same effect as a €187 Billion Large Asset Purchase (Quantitative Easing or if you will, money printing) No wonder Germany is worried.

As long as this keeps up, expect the Euro to keep dropping which counters any losses in the USD through capital flows from fixed income to risk assets in a risk on environment.

Therefore, we should start seeing a decoupling of the Euro from other risk assets such as Equity and commodity markets like the SP500 and Crude Oil... unless Helicopter Ben fires up the printing press again (Highly unlikely right now)

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,526
  • Nov 14, 2011 9:33am Nov 14, 2011 9:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
I just closed my 1.3710 short at 1.3635 for 75 pips profit.
I will let the two short positions at 1.3767 and 1.3766 ride
Let's see what NY brings us.

.
Well, she punched straight through. I thought she would move higher so now "hopefully" I'll get a nice opportunity on a retrace. I had a short order at 1.372 and pulled it. DAMN IT I HATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,527
  • Nov 14, 2011 9:43am Nov 14, 2011 9:43am
Quoting BullsVsBears
Well, she punched straight through. I thought she would move higher so now "hopefully" I'll get a nice opportunity on a retrace. I had a short order at 1.372 and pulled it. DAMN IT I HATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS
I think you are going to get retrace soon. 3565 - 3605 is a thick support zone.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,528
  • Nov 14, 2011 9:57am Nov 14, 2011 9:57am
grrrrrrrr ... wish I held the short. Woulda been 50 pips green now instead of taking that 6 pip loss smh
  • #9,529
  • Nov 14, 2011 10:04am Nov 14, 2011 10:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I think you are going to get retrace soon. 3565 - 3605 is a thick support zone.

T.
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,530
  • Nov 14, 2011 10:12am Nov 14, 2011 10:12am
Quoting nyfx718
grrrrrrrr ... wish I held the short. Woulda been 50 pips green now instead of taking that 6 pip loss smh
Lots of pips in the sea. Don't worry.
This sucker is now retracing up but shouldn't get too far. Max 1.3700 or maybe as little as 1.3655
Look at the fib lines on my M15 chart

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,531
  • Nov 14, 2011 10:25am Nov 14, 2011 10:25am
Quoting knoholygrail
......I have traded with as little as $5000 US and that is when I have had losses since I had less patience only trading one position of 100K so I over traded with 2 or more positions. I do not see how any retail traders can possibly win trading a $500 US account. I demo traded three years before I made my first live FX trade.

Well, at least I hope this will show someone how NOT to trade.

For myself the most important factor in being a winning trader is to have the maturity and discipline to trade properly using fundamentals and technicals,...
knoholygrail, good post. the only section I would comment on is the part where you mentioned trading with less than $10,000.

Yes sure, it would be nice if everyone had 10K to trade with, but imho I believe that $500 or even 250 is enough. If you have a plan and it works, it doesn't really matter how much you start off with as any working plan will accumulate nicely over time.
patience is a virtue
  • #9,532
  • Nov 14, 2011 10:41am Nov 14, 2011 10:41am
Definitely a retracement on the cards 4h is screaming oversold as is the M30 but my main indicator is a sideways market on the M5 and a flattening of the MA's on the M15 is often followed by a reversal which I'm seeing from my M15 fib levels that price shouldn't go any higher than 1.3690 unless something major comes on out on the newswire so I took a long at 1.3630 I feel its a pretty safe place to take one and my MA's are about to cross and confirm this..
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  • #9,533
  • Nov 14, 2011 10:42am Nov 14, 2011 10:42am
Quoting lovepips
knoholygrail, good post. the only section I would comment on is the part where you mentioned trading with less than $10,000.

Yes sure, it would be nice if everyone had 10K to trade with, but imho I believe that $500 or even 250 is enough. If you have a plan and it works, it doesn't really matter how much you start off with as any working plan will accumulate nicely over time.
As long as your broker offers you a micro account and you have an excellent trading strategy, you could turn $1,000 into $10,000 in a couple of years.
However, the time you would have to spend in front of the computer to earn $4,500 per year makes it less profitable than flipping burgers at McDonalds.
Just saying
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,534
  • Nov 14, 2011 10:49am Nov 14, 2011 10:49am
Ok, I finally got home so I can post propper chart.

Seems I am missing some support at 3628. Dunno where did it came from but it looks heavy.

Rest of my supports seem to work and I am still waiting to book half of profits at 3607, w8 for retracement to 3666 - 3689 zone and short again.

T.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,535
  • Nov 14, 2011 10:56am Nov 14, 2011 10:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
As long as your broker offers you a micro account and you have an excellent trading strategy, you could turn $1,000 into $10,000 in a couple of years.
However, the time you would have to spend in front of the computer to earn $4,500 per year makes it less profitable than flipping burgers at McDonalds.
Just saying
That's only 1/2 the story. You haven't mentioned the intangibles from
Starting smaller. Quite frankly I know when I started I didn't have the patience, conviction or appetite for a 10k account. There is something to be said about growing a 1k account to 5k. There are times I can risk 1% and times where I'd risk 10% and I don't trade with a stop loss. I know my style from years of honing it in a lower risk environment.
  • #9,536
  • Nov 14, 2011 10:59am Nov 14, 2011 10:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
ECB buys sovereign bonds from Italy and Spain and maybe even Portugal.

If they do not sterilize these bond purchases by selling them again or by selling other securities, it amounts to Quantitative Easing.
.
Tomorrow 11:30. Writing down.

I dont believe they will absorb it though .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,537
  • Nov 14, 2011 11:05am Nov 14, 2011 11:05am
Trying Long Euro Cross
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #9,538
  • Nov 14, 2011 11:07am Nov 14, 2011 11:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
As long as your broker offers you a micro account and you have an excellent trading strategy, you could turn $1,000 into $10,000 in a couple of years.
However, the time you would have to spend in front of the computer to earn $4,500 per year makes it less profitable than flipping burgers at McDonalds.
Just saying
Ah, but the skills you learn are far more valuable.

At 2 years it is a paltry 10,000
At 4 years it is 100,000
At 6 years it is 1,000,000
and at 10 years 100,000,000

Edit: you also have to look at the cost of tuition. It is common for most people to lose at least 30% of their account before they figure it out. But even if you lost 100% of a $1000 account, you still would be only down $1000. But if you start with 100,000 then you are down at least $30,000 and very probably 100,000.

Seriously, when you have total confidence in your skills that you can double your account in 6 months... use bigger numbers. And before that, gain the skills and the confidence losing smaller numbers.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #9,539
  • Nov 14, 2011 11:09am Nov 14, 2011 11:09am
Quoting AaronWard
Ah, but the skills you learn are far more valuable.

At 2 years it is a paltry 10,000
At 4 years it is 100,000
At 6 years it is 1,000,000
and at 10 years 100,000,000
If only the compunding numbers were that simple Aaron. Everyone would be doing it. We all know this a tricky business, and many a day I've sat and wondered why the hell I'm doing it. But then you catch that runner and everything makes sense
  • #9,540
  • Nov 14, 2011 11:20am Nov 14, 2011 11:20am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Tomorrow 11:30. Writing down.

I dont believe they will absorb it though .
They have been trying to absorb it since May and it just keeps getting bigger.
In May the EZ economy was still strong and there was lots of extra liquidity. Now with the economy half way in the poop chute and a liquidity sensitive environment, it will be even harder.

In May, June and July it was stable at €75 Billion

By end of August it grew to €115 Billion, end of September €156 Billion, end of October €173 Billion and now, 2 weeks later, €187 Billion
At this rate it may hit €300 Billion or more by year end.

ADD: If the EFSF is supposed to take it over once it is set up, if it is ever set up, then the €440 Billion will be completely used up.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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