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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #9,481
  • Nov 14, 2011 4:27am Nov 14, 2011 4:27am
1.36800 is a 38.2% Fib. level (in the big picture) the 40SMA on the H1, the 40SMA on the daily, a bit under the 200SMA on the H4. It is a cross and keypoint I think.
  • #9,482
  • Nov 14, 2011 4:33am Nov 14, 2011 4:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
More hopium.
it doesn't pay to hold the usd. unless there is some serious riskoff fear in the air. These markets have been living with the whiff of fear in the air for so long, it takes a really noticable stink to move them to seek safety. EFSF insolvent? maybe stinky enuf, maybe not....

don't underestimate the power of Greed
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,483
  • Nov 14, 2011 4:35am Nov 14, 2011 4:35am
Will watch out. Right now it looks to me the bears are doing just fine.

Quoting PipTrapper
Yes 1.3735 looks good for technical shorting but be careful on that coz I'm seeing some recovery on the equity and commodity markets.
  • #9,484
  • Nov 14, 2011 4:37am Nov 14, 2011 4:37am
Quoting The Fool
it doesn't pay to hold the usd. unless there is some serious riskoff fear in the air. These markets have been living with the whiff of fear in the air for so long, it takes a really noticable stink to move them to seek safety. EFSF insolvent? maybe stinky enuf, maybe not....

don't underestimate the power of Greed
Very true. Greedium
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,485
  • Nov 14, 2011 4:45am Nov 14, 2011 4:45am
These are the upcoming econ data releases for the EUR and USD tomorrow. All times are CET (GMT+1)

Also take note that tomorrow there will be a Greek T-Bill auction

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,486
  • Nov 14, 2011 4:59am Nov 14, 2011 4:59am
I am just reading some about SMP operations and found quite a funny part in description.

Quote ECB:
"The intended amount for absorption equals the cumulative size of settled SMP transactions at the end of the preceding week, rounded to the nearest half billion"
http://www.ecb.int/mopo/liq/html/index.en.html

That is a very precise one operation.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,487
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:00am Nov 14, 2011 5:00am
FF puts up a pretty good calendar. They omit lots of the smaller stuff, though - like this morning Portugal prelim q/q gdp was -0.4% vs -0.1% last - came out at 1000gmt.

a good source for more complete data is the free Oanda FxTrade news, which includes the free stuff from 4Cast, UBS, IFR, & DowJones...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,488
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:14am Nov 14, 2011 5:14am
Quoting The Fool
FF puts up a pretty good calendar. They omit lots of the smaller stuff, though - like this morning Portugal prelim q/q gdp was -0.4% vs -0.1% last - came out at 1000gmt.

a good source for more complete data is the free Oanda FxTrade news, which includes the free stuff from 4Cast, UBS, IFR, & DowJones...
Good to know thanks.
I also get all that news through my MT4 platform with FXDD Malta.
It gets a bit much sometimes but at least I can read the headline before wasting time reading the whole thing.
I also have Oanda but I find it a bit cumbersome. I keep many charts on my screens (4 lcd monitors) so that fills them up. The news feed from FXDD is built right in to the terminal window.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,489
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:18am Nov 14, 2011 5:18am
I would like to point out that today we have crossed the 200 MA on every time frame except the daily and the monthly. We are well below it on the daily, and still above it on the monthly.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #9,490
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:22am Nov 14, 2011 5:22am
Quoting AaronWard
I would like to point out that today we have crossed the 200 MA on every time frame except the daily and the monthly. We are well below it on the daily, and still above it on the monthly.
That's the next mission then
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,491
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:27am Nov 14, 2011 5:27am
lol i fell asleep last Friday waiting for a solid push long above .3650 now I'm short waiting for the same thing again. should be some nice fat stops below there...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,492
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:27am Nov 14, 2011 5:27am
It's a good day for Agri-Futures and the USD. Not so good for everything else.
I'm wondering what the US session will bring.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,493
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:28am Nov 14, 2011 5:28am
I was thinking to enter on 37200 but I missed it. I did not expect so steppy trend. I am curious what is the next good entry point.
  • #9,494
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:29am Nov 14, 2011 5:29am
Okay, List of points to complete a total account disaster:

1. Enter a good trade with a strong conviction. - DONE
2. Get your self esteem kicked down by the trade going against you -DONE
3. Get chicken and exit in loss. DONE.
4. Get mad at yourself and hesitate to reenter looking for better level, therefore missing your superb trade: -DONE.
4a. Get distracted by some of your life problems for an hour so you miss the opportunity - DONE.
5. Get frustrated being unable to trade the drop at work, and enter a short on the lowest low when you come back from work: to be done in 3 hrs.
6. Book another loss and wonder why you are such a complete idiot. - DONE and will be done again...

I think it seems I need to go demo. No point bleeding myself out, especially that I have already wiped out close to what I can stand...

Well, at least I hope this will show someone how NOT to trade.

ADD: Does there exist a script that swaps "buy" and "sell" buttons? This would be extremely profitable solution
  • #9,495
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:39am Nov 14, 2011 5:39am
If this keeps up, we may see 1.3380 this week.
Bottom of falling channel and 78.6% fibo of major up correction from 1.3344 low.
This makes sense as we have already breached the 61.8% fibo and retraced back up to past the 50% fibo. Technically, this is the next stop as long as we can break the yellow demand zones.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,496
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:42am Nov 14, 2011 5:42am
I didnt expect zone will break at first attempt, but it was a good try.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,497
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:43am Nov 14, 2011 5:43am
Quoting w1nner
I was thinking to enter on 37200 but I missed it. I did not expect so steppy trend. I am curious what is the next good entry point.
I am thinking 1.3685/95 area (50% to 61.8% fibo retrace of last swing low on M5)

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,498
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:45am Nov 14, 2011 5:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm wondering what the US session will bring.
US bond vultures and comp. will fix what they couldnt do on Friday. Sell.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,499
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:49am Nov 14, 2011 5:49am
We have all been there and I still am sometimes. What I do then is :
- Was this a trade taken accoring to my system?
- Was this a trade taken according to my money management?

If the answer is yes then thats a good trade in my opinion.
Why? becuse you can learn from it and add it to the statistics for your system. Try to make sure why it went against you and learn from it. Focus on that for the rest of the day go back to printed charts (I do every evening) and come back a day (or two) later and be a better trader.

Quoting Blobik
Okay, List of points to complete a total account disaster:

1. Enter a good trade with a strong conviction. - DONE
2. Get your self esteem kicked down by the trade going against you -DONE
3. Get chicken and exit in loss. DONE.
4. Get mad at yourself and hesitate to reenter looking for better level, therefore missing your superb trade: -DONE.
4a. Get distracted by some of your life problems for an hour so you miss the opportunity - DONE.
5. Get frustrated being unable to trade the drop at work, and enter a short on the lowest low when you come back...
  • #9,500
  • Nov 14, 2011 5:50am Nov 14, 2011 5:50am
Quoting Blobik
Okay, List of points to complete a total account disaster:

1. Enter a good trade with a strong conviction. - DONE
2. Get your self esteem kicked down by the trade going against you -DONE
3. Get chicken and exit in loss. DONE.
4. Get mad at yourself and hesitate to reenter looking for better level, therefore missing your superb trade: -DONE.
4a. Get distracted by some of your life problems for an hour so you miss the opportunity - DONE.
5. Get frustrated being unable to trade the drop at work, and enter a short on the lowest low when you come back...
I suggest you to practice on demo and go with the trend. Price is moving in waves, you are selling at the top of the wave and buying the bottom of the wave. But not against the trend. This market was moving sideways for the short term this is where the most trader lose money.

I don't think so I would change the buy and sell buttons. I don't push the buy or sell buttons immediately when I see something. I have my own EA which buys or shells on a better price (what I trigger).
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